Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained • Hacker News Board

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#491

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:07 PM UTC

nitwit005 wrote: post #189

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

While I appreciate the attempt, I have some suspicion that none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two. I get the distinct feeling that many of these efforts are more about reassuring the public, than any real confidence that they can limit the spread.

> none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two

Containment has failed. At this point, quarantine is about slowing transmission to avoid overwhelming healthcare resources.

The entire population is likely to get exposed. If it happens in a single month, that's a disaster. If it happens over a year, it's a manageable crisis.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#492

Post by DyslexicAtheist » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:07 PM UTC

stef25 wrote: post #473

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because you're angry over not getting a free face mask is a bit disrespectful toward the many people their working their asses off in times like these. my partner is a health care professional and there aren't enough masks for them (this is central Europe btw). but yeah tell me about how hard they work and how I don't appreciate them.

Here in Belgium it's almost impossible to find masks as well, except if you want to pay 70+ EUR https://i.imgur.com/dGd56Ng.png I suspect Asian customers have been plundering online EU shops for a while. Having said that, I don't think it's the responsibility of the WHO to distribute masks to health professionals like your partner.

> Having said that, I don't think it's the responsibility of the WHO to distribute masks to health professionals like your partner.

it's the CDC's who acts on advise and recommendations made by the WHO. The WHO has in 2018 warned about a disease X[1], so the CDC and local health ministries would have had 2 years to prioritize and make sure there are enough stocks for PPE in the country. It's not only about the masks for a theoretical pandemic that may or may not play out. There are shortages in other areas as well on a daily basis which are more complex and require structural cahnges. Take Germany as an example that hires Eastern Europeans as health-care workers (mostly for disabled people and elderly facilities) with salaries of ~€600-€800/month where they are placed on contracts from Slovenia and Poland to avoid paying the local insurance. (so some of the people working in healthcare can be put on crazy shifts under what is for EU standards a slave-labor condition). I won't even mention the health-care facilities in Croatia, Romania, Slovenia where elderly facilities buy drugs illegally because they want to pocket the difference, or where somebody who is hired as a nurse has actually never had any training as a nurse.

I know of some elderly care facilities in Croatia which are run by a lovely Albanian couple that branched out into this (their other businesses is bars/cafes). The wife of the entrepreneur/owner drives a fat Mercedes and goes on holidays to Paris, but the residents are lying in their own shit and swallow counterfeit drugs - also their employees are paid cash because they are usually elderly women themselves who have a lot of private debt - so this is the only way for them to survive.

This isn't whataboutism but an example of the places which won't stand a chance when this disease really hits. They aren't rare either, we just don't see them because it's disgusting and easier to look away.

As you said the price of masks has increased (in my experience by a factor of 10x !!) because people see an opportunity.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_X

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#493

Post by mrec » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:07 PM UTC

iso1210 wrote: post #362

djmips wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many people do you know with malaria? It's a tropical region disease. In a pandemic of Covid-19, it is going to affect people all over the world in every region.

> It's a tropical region disease Europe and the U.S. used to have Malaria. The name -- bad air -- is Latin, the Romans thought it originated from bad swamp air. Shakespeare mentioned it time and time again in his plays.

> Shakespeare mentioned it time and time again in his plays

I'm pretty sure what Shakespeare was referencing is a much more general idea prevalent in his day - that smells (not necessarily unpleasant ones) could be poisonous, and could be warded off by opposing "good" smells. This roughly coincided with an explosion of scented-good manufacturing as a cottage industry, although I'm not sure which way the arrow of causation ran there.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#494

Post by mark_l_watson » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:08 PM UTC

calf wrote: post #318

dlwdlw wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The authoritarianism is a red herring IMO. The real issue is economic incentives trumping everything else. For example in Japan if you test positive the hospital gets quarantined losing tons of money. In the US, you can end up payong huge medical bills. The fear is the same. The lesson from WW2 should have been that people are all the same when pushed to extremes. This includes the people who make up the communist pa…

I often think to the fable of Armus in ST:TNG, an advanced civilization achieved transcendence, but they left behind the black tar creature that gained sentience and represented all of their evils.

+1 I am not sure why, but your comment is the best thing I have read this morning.

A couple of my friends kid me about it, but I meditate almost every day for world peace and the reduction of suffering in the world. It can’t hurt and it makes me feel more connected to the world at large. I live in a small town, volunteering at the local food bank is one of my favorite activities, but I tend to think too much about just local life. I have a difficult time getting too excited about national/global politics, etc. Meditation on peace is the most effort I put into the global situation.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#495

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:10 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #488

pbourke wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Come up with the vaccine 2. Test vaccine on animals 3. Prove to regulators vaccine is safe enough for limited human trials 4. Conduct limited human trials 5. Research effectiveness of vaccine / absence of side effects 6. Conduct broader human trials 7. Step 5 again 8. Scale up production of vaccine Now, imagine that you can fail at any step and go back to the starting point.

I know most people here like to defend the established ways of doing things. But in an crisis like this we need to go back to first principles and see which steps are really needed and what can be speed up. Every day we waste people die.

[deleted]

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#496

Post by senordevnyc » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:10 PM UTC

_-___________-_ wrote: post #410

mrb wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why is China shutting down public transports, telling people to stay home, and cancelling public events? Hmm?

You could ask the same of many of the responses. All of your examples are "strong" responses that reassure the public, like the flight restrictions which public health experts have argued against. By the way, public transport is, and has continuously been, running in most cities in China, and people in many cities (I have direct knowledge of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai) are now slowly returning to…

Since when has China been ready to move heaven and earth in response to the fears of its citizens?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#497

Post by mr_isomies » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:12 PM UTC

Mvandenbergh wrote: post #400

toshk wrote: post #328

A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man made because of the way the virus is structured. Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense. Especially…

I don't know if it's really worth engaging with this nonsense. It looks just like other coronaviruses, there is nothing about it that looks man-made. If it was man-made, don't you think the Chinese government would have locked things down more aggressively as soon as they realised it was out? After all, in this scenario they would know exactly how dangerous it is. >Where every big government is actively working on cr…

Not buying into this sort of conspiracy theory myself, but since I'm reading some Cixin Liu I'll indulge in some creative thinking.

-

This is pure fiction:

Seeing this as an offensive weapon, if it were indeed man-made, is a mistake imo.

Right now the market is cratering, China is pretty much in economic lock down (which would have been impossible to enact otherwise), while being self sustained. Population of elders (i.e. non-working population) are being purged. Aren't we in the middle of an economic war between USA and China? China and the world, even? Who is gaining from this situation right now? Or rather, who is suffering less, from a medium/long perspective? If it does get to the States, with no healthcare safety net in place, the country will go through a lot of pain, economic and other.

I think that by the end of whatever _that_ is, China comes out on top from a game theory perspective. It's a bit like the Schwabb vs Ameritrade commission cutting playbook: if we both suffer but you suffer more, I still win in the end.

-

Again, pure fiction. I do not subscribe to any of those views. I am not that cynical! Just a fun writing exercise.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#498

Post by throw0101a » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:12 PM UTC

brutt wrote: post #404

simonh wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that if doctors had been free to investigate and alert the existence of the disease very early on, it might have been contained to a small number of cases right from the start, and never gained any traction in the population in the first place. The first few weeks of an outbreak are absolutely crucial, and the Chinese authorities actively obstructed efforts to address the issue in that period precisely b…

It doesn't looks so. Chinese scientist did research and found that virus was originated outside of Wuhan. It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

> It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

What?

The great circle distance between Koltsovo Airport (USSS) and Wuhan Tianhe International Airport (ZHHH) is 5000km:

* http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?&DU=km&P=USSS-ZHHH

And here I thought you were serious... until I looked at a map.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#499

Post by senordevnyc » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:12 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #280

mrb wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why is China shutting down public transports, telling people to stay home, and cancelling public events? Hmm?

Because they're an authoritarian state, grasping at straws, and they can. The new politicians in Wuhan are connected directly to Xi, and they're doing all kinds of stuff that has no scientific basis, just to be doing stuff.

Please share some of the (numerous, I’m sure) statements by public health officials and epidemiologists crying that China is overreacting.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#500

Post by qzx_pierri » Wed, Feb 26, 2020, 1:14 PM UTC

_nkl1 wrote: post #156

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

> When it does, just remember that those same authoritarian governments are the ones who played down the threat, lied, covered up to save face, imprisoned whistleblowers, and refused to let international experts in.

This doesn’t address the commenter’s claim that China did the best job of completely shutting their infrastructure down and quarantining the virus effectively. They did make their bed, but they also laid in it as well.