Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

axios.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

451–460 of 840 posts

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#451

Post by Hoasi »

brutt wrote: post #404
simonh wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that if doctors had been free to investigate and alert the existence of the disease very early on, it might have been contained to a small number of cases right from the start, and never gained any traction in the population in the first place. The first few weeks of an outbreak are absolutely crucial, and the Chinese authorities actively obstructed efforts to address the issue in that period precisely b…

It doesn't looks so. Chinese scientist did research and found that virus was originated outside of Wuhan. It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

> IMHO, it's from Koltsovo

Why do you think it comes from Koltsovo, in Russia?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#452

Post by sciinfo »

Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College:

=> Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to see doctors)

=> Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%

=> Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei!

Ref: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana....

From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China."

Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#453

Post by stef25 »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #359
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

> those same authoritarian governments are the ones who played down the threat, lied, covered up to save face, imprisoned whistle-blowers, and refused to let international experts in. I'm scared that it will become a lot worse than that. The pandemic gives them a real-life stress test and lessons to harden the surveillance state and further improve technical controls and tweak the technology to become more effective.…

What would have to take place for you to stop thinking this virus is going to push the entire world over the edge and fully in to 1984?

CDC and WHO are probably not perfect but saying they "utterly failed" because you're angry over not getting a free face mask is a bit disrespectful toward the many people their working their asses off in times like these.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#454

Post by sciinfo »

sciinfo wrote: post #452

Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to see doctors) => Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% => Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes preva…

For people still thinking it is just another SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#455

Post by cylinder »

bitreality wrote: post #345
woopdidoop wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? You are poorly informed. The Italian government did precisely that this weekend.

Just wait until it happens on a massive scale, and does not appear to be stopping the spread of the virus. People in the West are going to be tough to keep on lockdown. The entire purpose of lockdowns and quarantines at this point seem to be delaying until a vaccine is ready. This will be hard for the average person to understand, and people think much more critically in the West.

It's very easy to lock people down. have you ever been in New York before a declared snow day? How about Houston just before a big hurricane? Absolute ghost towns.

People are actually eager to be told to stay home and not go to work. They don't have to be forced. Especially if it's for their safety.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#456

Post by hatenberg »

silvestrov wrote: post #316
jldugger wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They kinda need to be right every time?

Why are chickens so scared of everything? It is because if they miss the fox a single time they are dead. If they run away 999 times without needing to, it's no big deal. Making a lot of noise so other chickens run away too helps the herd. You can laugh at the chickens, but the chickens you laugh at, are the kind of animals who survives. The same are true for wolves: they run away from humans because they are too gre…

Except that humans are much less binary than fight or flight and capable of nuanced reactions so the entire comparison is baloney.

There is a cost to living in a constant state of fear and preparation, the opportunity costs are massive.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#457

Post by DyslexicAtheist »

stef25 wrote: post #453
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> those same authoritarian governments are the ones who played down the threat, lied, covered up to save face, imprisoned whistle-blowers, and refused to let international experts in. I'm scared that it will become a lot worse than that. The pandemic gives them a real-life stress test and lessons to harden the surveillance state and further improve technical controls and tweak the technology to become more effective.…

What would have to take place for you to stop thinking this virus is going to push the entire world over the edge and fully in to 1984? CDC and WHO are probably not perfect but saying they "utterly failed" because you're angry over not getting a free face mask is a bit disrespectful toward the many people their working their asses off in times like these.

> because you're angry over not getting a free face mask is a bit disrespectful toward the many people their working their asses off in times like these.

my partner is a health care professional and there aren't enough masks for them (this is central Europe btw). but yeah tell me about how hard they work and how I don't appreciate them.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#458

Post by empath75 »

viraptor wrote: post #448
empath75 wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know why people are assuming we can create a vaccine. There’s no vaccine for any other corona virus.

Because we're already starting trials of one: https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/ There's a bit of a description there about why this approach is different.

Obviously we’re trying, but I wouldn’t assume it’s going to be successful. It’s most likely that it won’t be.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#459

Post by [deleted] »

ck425 wrote: post #302
bamboozled wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think getting HIV is even slightly comparable to having HIV though? Sure you can catch COVID-19 more easily, but it seems like having HIV is a far worse outcome.

HIV is an incredibly manageable disease these days. The day to day effects are on a similar scale to Diabetes ie take regular medication and watch for specific symptoms that could imply it worsening. Otherwise there relatively little day to day impact other than the stigma. I should caveat that I'm referring to countries with a modern and available health system.

[deleted]

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#460

Post by paublyrne »

dependenttypes wrote: post #430
bzzzt wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe participation in the holy communion by drinking from a cup of wine shared with the entire congregation isn't the best idea right now.

I presume that the alcohol from the wine would not be enough to kill the virus, right?

It's unlikely, wine's alcohol content is only around 13%, you would need about 4 times that to kill the average virus. It would also be on the lip of the cup rather than in the wine.
Post reply on HN