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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#381

Post by ainiriand »

asiachick wrote: post #268
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

Barcelona cancelled the Mobile World Congress right away a few days ago. So yes, it is ready to do that.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#382

Post by raducu »

DrJaws wrote: post #56
Alex3917 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...

We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never report the disease

Just as the majority of people who catch the flu don't get tested for it, only the serious cases do.

So we know covid19 spreads much easier than the flu and is orders of magnitude deadlier than the flu for those that get tested/confirmed compared to those that get tested/confirmed with the flu.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#383

Post by socialdemocrat »

nostromo wrote: post #122
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

Oh I remember we were scared as hell about HIV back in the 80s.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#384

Post by retsibsi »

hurrdurr2 wrote: post #142
bencollier49 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sources?

https://archive.fo/pgxDl https://archive.is/zImUv

Maybe I'm just looking for comfort, but this passage (from your first link) seems like a big logical leap to me:

> The fact that patients not displaying symptoms are able to transmit the coronavirus indicates something alarming. As typically such respiratory viruses are normally transmitted thru the mouth via coughing in which minute droplets are exposed or thru the nose when the nasal fluids are released through sneezing or blowing of the nose.

> If a person is not showing any symptoms, then the only possible means is through the exhaled air of the infected individual, which implies that the virus is an extremely potent airborne pathogen.

People who aren't sick still cough/sneeze/blow their nose sometimes. (Especially so in the case of people with allergies, but everyone does it a bit.)

And surely people could transmit the disease through saliva (or other fluids) spread via their hands. People touch their face, pick their teeth, eat with their hands, pick their nose, bite their nails, etc. etc.

Then there is the possibility of transmission through shared meals, or even inadequately washed cutlery etc.

Don't get me wrong, asymptomatic spread is scary, and it probably provides some evidence in favour of airborne transmission. But I don't see how they can make such an absolute statement, when there seem to be other available explanations.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#385

Post by DanBC »

lisper wrote: post #158
nostromo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

I don't know about you but I'm bombarded every year with campaigns to get people immunised, and the meetings I go to talk about availability of the vaccine for the public, and for healthcare professionals, and how many professionals have been vaccinated so far and how we can ethically increase that number, and on top of that every year for the past however long in the English NHS there's been a lot of talk about winter pressure.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#387

Post by dunkelheit »

asiachick wrote: post #268
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

By now we know much more about the virus and the threat is evident so the situation is not really comparable to the start of the outbreak.

I guess a lot of "what if it started in another country" scenarios can be debated, ranging from "another government wouldn't cover up the real situation so the virus would be quickly contained" to "western governments wouldn't have the balls to quickly enact proper quarantine measures so the virus would spread much more quickly" but is it really productive? At this point these debates are pure speculation.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#388

Post by fastball »

oefrha wrote: post #239
allovernow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not an event for petty emotions. Also in high likelihood those who are there on behalf of the CDC are keeping quiet in order not to be kicked out. But you bet there's espionage going on. The Chinese government doesn't mess around. And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.

> This is not an event for petty emotions. If only “openly hostile” was limited to “petty emotions” that can be waved away.

If only "openly hostile" was true. "open hostilities" generally means outright war or pretty close to it. Clearly something that has not been very close to happening.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#390

Post by wisty »

cm2187 wrote: post #354
djmips wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know that it's just fatalities in old and sick? If that's the case, I don't understand why many younger people in Wuhan are dying including the whistle blower doctor who was only 33 years old. We don't even know what the disease will do in terms of long term damage to survivors or the possibility of poor immunity and reinfection. I haven't seen any good statistics on the fatality rate vs age.

Because that’s what the numbers published say: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... Look at the mortality by age table. Also note the mortality rate outside of Wuhan seems to be 0.7%, a bit more than the common flu which I think is around 0.1% but not really a massive deal. I don’t know where these numbers will land ultimately but I can think of many reasons why people with mild symptoms th…

7 times is quite a lot more. That's like saying a Porsche is a bit more than a Toyota.
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