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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#341

Post by rtpg »

rogy wrote: post #277
dahdum wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in Tokyo and having a very different experience than you, nearly everyone on the trains are wearing masks and all customer facing staff I see now. Someone hit the emergency button on the train a few days ago because someone was coughing without one (there was a PSA asking people not to do that). It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see…

on a side note, i have a week of PTO booked in tokyo then a week in kyoto/osaka, leaving friday. do you think its safe to travel?

You’re probably fine? Most things are running, though big events are cancelled and a lot of companies are implementing mandatory work from home policies.

Tokyo is where it’s the worst, right now

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#342

Post by koheripbal »

hnick wrote: post #213
tenpies wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Am I overreacting? Probably not. Mortality rate aside (anywhere from 2% to 5% depending on source), the biggest issue is hospitalization rate (about 20% based on Chinese numbers). No country on the planet could handle that hospitalization rate all at once. The priority going forward is about managing spread. Keeping spread as slow as possible so the absolute number of people who need to be hospitalized at any parti…

Do we know how many of those 20% would die without hospital support? I assume the 2-5% takes into account treatment or is that excluding it?

About 4%. That's the death rate in Wuhan with the system maxed out.

The limitation is actually mechanical ventilators.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#343

Post by wklauss »

hnick wrote: post #213
tenpies wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Am I overreacting? Probably not. Mortality rate aside (anywhere from 2% to 5% depending on source), the biggest issue is hospitalization rate (about 20% based on Chinese numbers). No country on the planet could handle that hospitalization rate all at once. The priority going forward is about managing spread. Keeping spread as slow as possible so the absolute number of people who need to be hospitalized at any parti…

Do we know how many of those 20% would die without hospital support? I assume the 2-5% takes into account treatment or is that excluding it?

That 2%-5% is based on the current detected cases and deaths attributed to the virus. You can sense where the problem is. Much like the flu, most of the deaths are older people with weak inmune systems that go haywire. Right now, out of an abundance of caution, anyone with symptoms is being hospitalized, that includes people that normally wouldn't be if this was a normal flu season and they showed up at the doctor with same symptoms.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#344

Post by koheripbal »

2sk21 wrote: post #335
01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

Same here - there is absolutely no reason for me to be physically present in the office so I plan to work from home as much as possible in the near future

Pornhub is going to see sooooo much traffic.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#345

Post by bitreality »

woopdidoop wrote: post #294
asiachick wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? You are poorly informed. The Italian government did precisely that this weekend.

Just wait until it happens on a massive scale, and does not appear to be stopping the spread of the virus. People in the West are going to be tough to keep on lockdown. The entire purpose of lockdowns and quarantines at this point seem to be delaying until a vaccine is ready.

This will be hard for the average person to understand, and people think much more critically in the West.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#346

Post by jfkebwjsbx »

noodlesUK wrote: post #146

As someone tangentially attached to the sports community, the olympics is already a bit screwed up anyway, simply because the sports seasons (and thus the qualification pathway) for many events in the games have been significantly disrupted by the coronavirus. Many athletes who were in touching distance of qualifying will not be able to, and other athletes will be sent in their stead (if it happens at all) Olympic qu…

It is not your humble opinion. Sports are just entertainment nowadays. Lowest priority.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#347

Post by rorykoehler »

jariel wrote: post #321
didericis wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

"more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, " The 'first case' of what exactly though? Nobody knew it's effects, transmissibility, etc. etc.. I actually believe that even if said doctors were not sanctioned, not much would have really changed. I think the delay to the authoritarian clamp-down would have been roughly the same. In the West, we have responsible actors but they're neither entirely kn…

Not sure I’d lump Malaysia in with this lot but otherwise I agree. No cases on Indonesia? No chance

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#348

Post by johnchristopher »

Cookingboy wrote: post #312
simonh wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that if doctors had been free to investigate and alert the existence of the disease very early on, it might have been contained to a small number of cases right from the start, and never gained any traction in the population in the first place. The first few weeks of an outbreak are absolutely crucial, and the Chinese authorities actively obstructed efforts to address the issue in that period precisely b…

Well from what we've seen in Japan and South Korea, that seems to be far from guaranteed. Those countries had all the warnings they needed, and knew much more about the virus than the earlier days, yet they still failed to contain the initially small outbreaks.

How can they have all the warnings they needed if China didn't give them the right info from the start ? That 27 days incubation period got a lot of people infected and becoming carriers. It's like, China had a relatively well defined outbreak center while other countries started with a wide spread invisible web of carriers.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#349

Post by tasogare »

distantaidenn wrote: post #210
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with…

Same impression when returning in Japan at the beginning of month after a stay in Taiwan. In Taiwan something like 99% of people outside in bigs cities were wearing masks. In Japan only the usual 20%.

However, things are starting to change? At least my lab cancelled a conference we planned to organize (call for paper deadline next month, and conference itself in August).

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#350

Post by flukus »

kzrdude wrote: post #300
akmarinov wrote: post #6

The European football cup is looking like it will be canceled as well.

Why? Spreading out the venues over the whole of Europe seems to be a good strategy (not intentional, of course) for an event like an epidemic. Less concentration of fans and teams that way.

Spreading out the venues means spreading out the transmission. You'll have 20000 people flying from country A to watch a match in country B, then they'll get on another plane together and fly to country C then some will go back home while others fly to country D for the knockouts. A single sick person and it could suddenly be a Europe wide epidemic.

Throw in the drinking, the hugging and the tears that these occasions create and it's almost the perfect recipe to spread a virus.

A lot could change by June though.

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