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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#321

Post by jariel »

didericis wrote: post #196
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

"more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, "

The 'first case' of what exactly though? Nobody knew it's effects, transmissibility, etc. etc..

I actually believe that even if said doctors were not sanctioned, not much would have really changed.

I think the delay to the authoritarian clamp-down would have been roughly the same.

In the West, we have responsible actors but they're neither entirely knowledgable (nobody is) neither do they have the widespread authority to do what China is able to do.

But much worse are places like India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines ... these to me are the scary spots with high concentrations of people, crude medical practices, not a ton of gear, and no legit central authority to really turn the wheels on the disease.

And since the cat is out of the bag ... it doesn't look good.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#322

Post by xvilka »

bamboozled wrote: post #182
xvilka wrote: post #131

Why not just postpone it for the same time next year? It's still possible and not a complete cancellation either.

I think it would be better to postpone it to a cooler time of the year also. Not sure if you've visited Tokyo in summer, but it's a ridiculous time to be having it.

Yes, I have been in Tokyo in summer, it's surprisingly hot and humid.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#323

Post by tanilama »

nostromo wrote: post #122
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

COVID-19 is much more powerful than any of these you mentioned before.

It is SARS+, less fatal but much more infectious. In a way, it is a very successful virus (in a nightmare scenario), that aspiring to become the next flu.

The Chinese scientists had admitted that, we might have to live with this virus from this time forward. It won't go away like SARS-v1.

Also to note, fatality rate might seem low, but 20% of ALL patients will develop severe lung issue, that is what makes this virus pretty damn dangerous to us.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#324

Post by pbourke »

allovernow wrote: post #317
pbourke wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting data points from today's presser with Dr. Bruce Aylward of WHO[1]: "Aylward pointed to an analysis from Guangdong province suggesting that, at least there, most of the infections were coming to the attention of health authorities. When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests perfor…

>Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed These numbers don't make sense. What, are they assuming 100% accuracy for the tests? China is an authoritarian dictatorship with a very personal need to save face - in order to maintain order it cannot show weakness. China is lying. There is…

I think China was looking at an existential threat to the government, and so made a calculation to trade a recession for survival. Their response was unprecedented, brutal and effective. I think it goes beyond face - lying at this stage would just lead to more Wuhans and eventually collapse.

At least that’s my current thinking - I was in your camp until a week ago or so.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#325

Post by lukevdp »

scruple wrote: post #183
dis-sys wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple doctors in their late 20s or early 30s have died from the coronavirus. If you are under 18 and have good health, then you are pretty safe.

I've been trying to find mortality rates for the very young. Infants and toddlers. I haven't been finding much information. Is this being reported? Having twins under a year at home has somehow managed to become an even more stressful event...

No deaths for 0-9 age group so far

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#327

Post by hawkice »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

I would take the other side of the bet about how well China is handling this. They are doing... intensely poorly. The rapid spread is in part due to the fact the Chinese government doesn't care at all about central China, and Wuhan only had(/has?) One critical care bed per one hundred thousand people.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#328

Post by toshk »

A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man made because of the way the virus is structured.

Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense.

Especially because in Wuhan there is one of these labs.

Around the world outbreaks out of viruses out of these labs happen regularly. Even on purpose sometimes, but most of the time accidently.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#329

Post by contravariant »

allovernow wrote: post #284
pbourke wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The epidemic curve[1] makes a pretty compelling case that the quarantine was effective. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

That curve is pure bullshit. No real life event fits a polynomial with that much precision when it is sampled so poorly. They're cooked, both intentionally and because of limitations in equipment, personel, and ability.

That's the first time I've seen n=45,000ish been described as a 'poor' sample.

The only suspicious part I can find is the peak at the first of February, but that just seems like that date has been used as a catch all in case the exact date was unknown.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#330

Post by himinlomax »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact.

I don't want to be flippant, but it's already have a "significant" impact. The question is now whether it's going to have a _disastrous_ impact.

> China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best

You're talking about the country that lost precious days, if not week handling the crisis by persecuting whistleblowers.

> Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities

I'd like to point out that non-authoritarian countries haven't needed to quarantine major cities. India, which is both poorer and more densely populated, hasn't originated deadly epidemics while it's the second China has graced us with them. I'd argue their nationalistic-motivated toleration if not encouragement of ridiculous "traditional medicine" practices is making them more likely.

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