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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#301

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

allovernow wrote: post #284
pbourke wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The epidemic curve[1] makes a pretty compelling case that the quarantine was effective. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

That curve is pure bullshit. No real life event fits a polynomial with that much precision when it is sampled so poorly. They're cooked, both intentionally and because of limitations in equipment, personel, and ability.

Do you have examples of other epidemics where it was impossible to fit a quadratic? I've seen this argument a lot, but I've never seen anyone attempt to analyze how hard it actually is. I suspect that any data with positive first and second derivatives is pretty easy to fit closely to a quadratic.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#302

Post by ck425 »

bamboozled wrote: post #177
netheril96 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.

Do you really think getting HIV is even slightly comparable to having HIV though? Sure you can catch COVID-19 more easily, but it seems like having HIV is a far worse outcome.

HIV is an incredibly manageable disease these days. The day to day effects are on a similar scale to Diabetes ie take regular medication and watch for specific symptoms that could imply it worsening.

Otherwise there relatively little day to day impact other than the stigma.

I should caveat that I'm referring to countries with a modern and available health system.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#303

Post by burgerquizz »

Are the effect of the coronavirus on the stock market could be opportunity for investing?

The SP500 went down 8% this past 4 days. I'm wondering if that will go lower those next days.

I have a bit amount of money on the side, I didn't know where to invest. Would now be a good opportunity to lump sum all the money, or would you Dollar Cost Average?

Anyone else with the same dilemma, and would have more arguments?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#304

Post by buboard »

01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

no you re not. everyone who can do that should demand it. and not just for the corona, but for reclaiming back your time, and also, occam's razor

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#305

Post by iCarrot »

yibg wrote: post #243
didericis wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

China can be held responsible for the slow early response and attempt to cover things up as well as being praised for the decisive efforts at containment later on. I don’t want to let them off the hook for down playing this thing early on but I’m not sure how much more effective containment would’ve been if this happened in another dense country. Say Japan, India or somewhere in Europe.

Or say the US. In 2009 pandemic, the influenza A H1N1 pdm-09 originated from Mexico, spread to the US, and then to the world.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#306

Post by WillPostForFood »

rogy wrote: post #277
dahdum wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in Tokyo and having a very different experience than you, nearly everyone on the trains are wearing masks and all customer facing staff I see now. Someone hit the emergency button on the train a few days ago because someone was coughing without one (there was a PSA asking people not to do that). It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see…

on a side note, i have a week of PTO booked in tokyo then a week in kyoto/osaka, leaving friday. do you think its safe to travel?

Not wise, IMO. Look how quickly things blew up in Korea and Italy, and Japan seems to be in denial.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#307

Post by grandmczeb »

Johnny555 wrote: post #287
allovernow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not an event for petty emotions. Also in high likelihood those who are there on behalf of the CDC are keeping quiet in order not to be kicked out. But you bet there's espionage going on. The Chinese government doesn't mess around. And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.

If the outbreak started in the USA, would you expect the USA to welcome a team of Chinese Government epidemiologists?

I expect they would be allowed. The US also allows international observers for its elections as well.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#308

Post by buboard »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #110
chime wrote: post #93

For anyone looking for more, try the subreddits /r/Covid19 (scientific/medical info), /r/CoronaVirus (maintstream news), and /r/China_Flu (social posts).

I'm not sure I trust Reddit, or indeed any social media, for reliable reporting on such an emotive topic. There's already so much misinformation and conspiracy theories about the disease.

Turns out, reddit has been more reliable with its curated rumour streams. Google et al, heavily censored search results. (Also, what happened to google flu trends?). For those with knowledge and critical ability to examine every claim, it's good to consider every source.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#309

Post by dlwdlw »

_nkl1 wrote: post #156
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

The authoritarianism is a red herring IMO. The real issue is economic incentives trumping everything else. For example in Japan if you test positive the hospital gets quarantined losing tons of money. In the US, you can end up payong huge medical bills. The fear is the same.

The lesson from WW2 should have been that people are all the same when pushed to extremes. This includes the people who make up the communist party leadership in China and every moral philosoher in the west as well.

My armchair belief is that China has ended up absorbing at a global scale, all of capitalism’s externalities. It is an integral part of the world that gives us many things we take for granted like cheap iphones and many others. We do NOT have the convenience to look away and scapegoat one aspect without taking into consideration the whole.

This ended up kinda ranty but every time coronavirus is used to bring up something whose purpose is to draw an “us vs them” line between the world and China I want to throw something.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#310

Post by pbourke »

allovernow wrote: post #284
pbourke wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The epidemic curve[1] makes a pretty compelling case that the quarantine was effective. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

That curve is pure bullshit. No real life event fits a polynomial with that much precision when it is sampled so poorly. They're cooked, both intentionally and because of limitations in equipment, personel, and ability.

Interesting data points from today's presser with Dr. Bruce Aylward of WHO[1]:

"Aylward pointed to an analysis from Guangdong province suggesting that, at least there, most of the infections were coming to the attention of health authorities.

When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.

Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said."

[1] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/new-data-from-china-butt...

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