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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#121

Post by hatenberg »

labster wrote: post #53
thwer234324 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a good time to flag HNs self-conceited hive-mind ? Two days ago, HN was full of - 'LOL this is some Alex Jones level conspiracy'. Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Virologists ? No. China quarantining half the population ? No. Only the tech 'wizards' from SV, have a monopoly on truth don't you know. The Orwellian censorship that has been unleashed by these idiots will do the world much more harm in th…

Meh, I’ve been warning people about the coronavirus for a couple weeks now. And our prepper contingent has been on it for years. The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. Many years back I read The Coming Plague about epidemiology and the disease cowboys who fight it. There is always a coming plague, known or novel. It was only a ma…

The prepper contingent has predicted 250 out of the last 3 global plague events correctly.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#122

Post by nostromo »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime.

HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19...

For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#123

Post by testfoobar »

cylinder wrote: post #102
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Where do you find how many people the US has tested? I can't find that anywhere.

Here you go: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#125

Post by rococode »

jankotek wrote: post #116
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Could you tell me in what way authoritatian countries (aka China) handles this situation better? Italy closed 50k people into quarantine, government talks about military and EU was deciding about closing borders. All of this days after confirmed cases. I am sure officials would have no trouble to isolate major city. China has many internal problems, we just do not see them. Government refuses foreign doctors. If cris…

Just my opinion, of course, but I guess one very simple way I think about it is, a government that expends a lot of effort controlling its people even in normal times is naturally better equipped to do so than a government that generally encourages individualism and freedom among its population.

For example, North Korea reportedly executed a guy for breaking quarantine [1]. China may not be nearly as extreme, but the government is similarly domineering. If your choice is "be quarantined or be disappeared" then you shut up and stay home. But "be disappeared" is not the alternative in many Western countries. Again, just my totally uninformed opinion as a coder sittin' at home. In any case it'll certainly be interesting to see how it turns out.

[1] https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/north-korean-official-reported...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#126

Post by adrr »

DrJaws wrote: post #35

It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much wors…

Current antivirals work on it. Shown effective in animal models and now in human testing in China. A US based test, the patient made a recovery and showed significant improvement one day after dose. This is just antivirals that are already out there that being manufactured. There will be vaccines on the market in 6 to 9 months and antibody treatments shortly after.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#127

Post by nradov »

Rather then cancelling completely, a limited option would be to run the games in quarantine with just athletes, officials, and media. No spectators allowed. Athletes confined to the Olympic Village for a couple weeks before and after the Games, and bused to event venues with no public contact.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#128

Post by melonkidney »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Your thoughts echo mine very closely. Uncontained spread seems fairly well unavoidable at this point.

By all accounts, the Chinese have so far done a good job of containing the spread inside their borders (outside of Wuhan). But I feel there's a significant lesson to be learned from how the virus exited Wuhan in the first place: containment measures applied too late, after the scale of the problem became too obvious to ignore. I fully expect this response to be the norm, across all scales from community to city to nation.

I think that China and other large (in terms of area) countries like the US will come out of this "OK", modulo the economic impact. For the most part, intranational travel is funneled through long-distance rail and air routes, which are relatively easy to monitor and control. I have more concern for e.g., Western Europe, where there is not a significant geographic separation between the major population centers, and where there is a strong expectation of free & untracked movement.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#129

Post by dis-sys »

Barrin92 wrote: post #51
01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

>I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. Am in the UK and not the US but given that I'm healthy and relatively young I don't really see the point. This disease is scary in the aggregate, i.e it imposes huge economic costs. The average case of it is basically having flu symptoms, and I never stayed at home unless I got sick during bad flu seasons…

Multiple doctors in their late 20s or early 30s have died from the coronavirus. If you are under 18 and have good health, then you are pretty safe.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#130

Post by loblollyboy »

hurrdurr2 wrote: post #111
xbmcuser wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many people here on hackernews are being stupid that they are healthy adults so they don't need to worry. Even if you don't die you will be out of the work force for 2-3 weeks either because you are sick or quarantined. You could pass the infection to your children, parents Grand parents who might not be able to fight off the infection and die. Many people get flu vaccines or over the years have built up some…

Not to mention the virus is mutating and is now killing healthy people in their twenties in Hubei (if not at least serious disease requiring mechanical ventilation and supplemental oxygen). Also there is evidence the HIV drugs are no longer working due to the virus developing resistance. Those of you thinking "oh I'm a healthy young person I'm just gonna carry on doing what I'm doing" is gonna be in for a rude awaken…

This, unfortunately
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