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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point an order* SARS had ~8500 cases, ~800 deaths [1]. COVID-19 is currently ~81000 cases and ~2700 deaths.[2] It will be orders, plural, at some point, but remains to be seen how big (and I won't speculate on that). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SA... [2] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

In my mind at least, all of these numbers are applesauce. Our ability to trust these numbers hinges on our ability to trust information reported by China's government and other authoritarian regimes (eg Iran and North Korea).

Numbers are suspect from everywhere. Most jurisdictions are only just beginning to test symptomatic patients who don't have a direct link to the initial outbreak locale. One of the difficulties of a disease with symptoms almost identical to the seasonal influenza.

But having some numbers to compare is better than having none (or trusting gut instinct).

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#42
I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people.

Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit to our soon-to-be overworked heath care system and preserve resources for those who can't hide.

I think those of us who have the ability to work from home for a while might want to consider agitating for it to be official policy for the next month or so.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#43

Containing it? It's hopeless. Just cancel earlier so the economic loss can be contained.

Containment is still desirable even in a scenario where this has spread to all countries and on-track to become endemic. Why? Because it buys time. If a vaccine can be developed, which is likely but certain to take some months, then you can inoculate the populace and end up in a situation where it's endemic-but-managed. If you don't contain, however, then you assuredly burn through whatever portion of your populace w…

> which is likely but certain to take some months

The news today reported 12 to 18 months for mass availability of a vaccine.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#46
I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact.

There are just too many factors in favor of uncontained worldwide spread at this point - within the 1st week of reporting it already looked like China's numbers were incomplete (and potentially manipulated) and the scale was greatly underestimated.

Untraceable transmission all over the place, relatively low-traffic countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka seeing cases very early on, extremely long incubation periods with airborne transmission without symptoms, false negative tests with people either catching the virus after leaving quarantine or not testing positive (both really bad signs), governments demonstrating weak and ineffective containment of potentially infected travelers (Japan: "no symptoms so they can go home!"), more infections than SARS in a small fraction of the time, the US only testing ~400 people thus far, entire families in Wuhan being wiped out. Basically everything is in place for this to be a serious pandemic.

I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late.

As an aside, BNO has been doing an excellent job of posting timely and sourced updates that make it easy to keep up to date with every new confirmed case (scroll down to the Timeline section):

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...

Hopefully I can look back at this comment in a couple months and chuckle at my paranoia!

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#47
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like the world is gradually acknowledging its seriousness as it continues to spread. This is certainly the highest-profile event that has considered cancellation.

Events don't really get bigger than Olympics, do they? The last ones to be cancelled were due to world wars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#48

The European football cup is looking like it will be canceled as well.

Any news source on this? UEFA seems to be saying there is no chance of cancelling the Cup... which I find believable, as the governing bodies for the various soccer leagues and competitions tend to be more money-hungry than other sports.

Edit: grammar.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#49
post #35

It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much wors…

> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate

Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%:

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...

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