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Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

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Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#251

Post by allovernow »

WJW wrote: post #30
tome wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have particularly useful historical information to hand then it would probably better to share it rather than hint at its existence.

Everyone who had history in high school has historical information about this. There have been numerous plagues throughout history with higher infectivity, higher lethality, and both relatively and absolutely higher death counts. Don't put the burden of looking up simple and easily findable information on other posters when you can easily google it yourself.

You should read about R0 and CFR estimates for recent publications our of China. Conservative estimates put this well past Spanish Flu territory. That doesn't even get into the various rumors coming from the weaker papers.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#252

Post by allovernow »

bilekas wrote: post #58
heyflyguy wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This virus, coupled with modern day speed of travel *Could be unprecedented. I don't enjoy your snark, I think this is a very serious issue!

The comment was not snark, it was based on your hyperbolic statement that this is unprecedented. But whatever doctor, like any coronavirus, hygiene and good considerate practices will help. The mortality rate is still around 2%-ish and hugely dependent on the health condition of the patient at time of contracting. Its annoying, its serious and it's spreading for sure. But it is not Armageddon-scale unprecedented cont…

There are less than 100,000 ICU beds in the United States. ≈15% of cases in healthy individuals require critical care. With current R0 it will not take long to fill those beds and experience the chaos that is bring down the Chinese Empire. Their GDP is shut down. Why do you think stocks tanked 4% today? At the very least we're already talking the start of a potential global recession because of a virus.

If nothing else this is shaping up to be an event which will define a generation before it's all over.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#253

Post by InitialLastName »

ptero wrote: post #108
jlokier wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that's an option. I lot of people cannot call in sick. Being sick means being unpaid, and many people cannot afford to go unpaid.

It is an option (full pay, no black marks at work) for a lot of people. That was the setup for professionals in all large companies that I worked for and people would still come to work really sick and spread the good stuff around. Grrrr!

One of my colleagues literally apologized when he had to call out (with pneumonia) after coming in progressively more sick for a week. We have fully paid and (IMO) stigma-free sick leave, but nobody ever apologizes similarly for coming in sick and increasing the viral load of the office.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#254

Post by celdon25 »

goatforce5 wrote: post #241
celdon25 wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before implying that Canada has the final answer to health care, note the other side of the tradeoff from a recent report published Dec 2019: "Fraser Institute has—for over two decades—surveyed specialist physicians across 12 specialties and 10 provinces. This edition of Waiting Your Turn indicates that, overall, waiting times for medically necessary treatment have increased since last year. Specialist physicians sur…

> Before implying that Canada has the final answer to health care I provided details on a single instance of an interaction with the health system. Hence 'ancedata'. I made no claim that every interaction will have the same outcome. > waiting times for medically necessary treatment have increased since last year Do you have the data for wait times for other countries? And, I suppose, wait times of those in the US wit…

> Do you have the data for wait times for other countries?

https://www.cihi.ca/sites/default/files/document/text-altern...

29% of Canadians report waiting 4 or more hours the last time they went to the hospital emergency department.

Patients who reported waiting 4 or more hours: Country results from highest to lowest

Canada, 29% (below average); Sweden, 20%; Norway, 13%; United States, 11%; Commonwealth Fund average, 11%; Australia, 10%; New Zealand, 10%; United Kingdom, 8%; Switzerland, 7%; Netherlands, 4%; Germany, 3%; France, 1%

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#255

Post by everybodyknows »

koheripbal wrote: post #178
aldoushuxley001 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That number is still only for extremely at risk segments of the population, and the study has such a small sample size that it should be taken with large grains of salt.

I wouldn't dismiss the entire elderly population of Earth "extremely at risk" population. They are our mothers/fathers/grandparents...

>Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#256

Post by mcphage »

Retric wrote: post #157
jacquesm wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because no health system in the world would have the capacity to put more than about one in thousand people in intensive care. Try one in ten thousand. And that's in the most developed countries with the best healthcare.

On the other hand diseases don’t reach 100% of the population on the same day. Quarantine has been surprisingly effective in China, though at significant economic cost. That seems to be a much larger concern than the capacity of heathcare systems. If this becomes a true epidemic it’s going to be bad, but societies have been dealing with epidemics for a long time.

> If this becomes a true epidemic it’s going to be bad, but societies have been dealing with epidemics for a long time.

Yes, but we’re still often left with millions or tens of millions dead.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#257

Post by yyyk »

aaron695 wrote: post #102
bilekas wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lets blame the media ? What are you talking about. The media is reporting whats happening as it gets it, if Iran's media is being silenced that got nothing to do with the virus itself and more about the control of panic. > We also need the immediate relaxation of sanctions around this on Iran I'm pretty sure the WHO couldn't give a rats about US sanctions when it comes to human rights and world health.

> The media is reporting whats happening as it gets it, No they simply are not. Should I be watching Fox? Iran has 12 people dead atm. This is unheard of in any country other than China. We have known this high toll for 3 days. Last Friday is was thought to be 9! Who has headlined this? CNN has Italy and South Korea as it's headlines right now and today, they pail in comparison to Iran. This is not a high toll, this…

The reason the sanctions are not mentioned is because the sanctions have no effect here - all medical supplies are allowed.

The problem is a regime which is utterly indifferent to its populace and intentionally delayed disease response for political purposes. As one report has it:

"Iranian officials have remained outwardly calm. An official with the Health Ministry told Javan newspaper that the majority of those who have been infected with the coronavirus do not need special care and will recover, adding that only 3% of those infected are likely to die from the virus."[0]

"Only" 3% => 2.4 million people if entire population is eventually infected. If "only" 5% are eventually infected that's 120,000 people.

That level of criminal indifference is an argument for stricter sanctions against the regime eventually...

[0] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/02/iran-coro...

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#258

Post by _-___________-_ »

goblin89 wrote: post #70
_-___________-_ wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that "day 1" before, after or during the 14 day incubation period that I keep seeing repeated? Do you have some good sources about the length of incubation?

The day 1 in this case is the day symptoms begin. The 14 day figure is more of a recommendation for the duration of quarantine, intended to cover incubation period in excess. As a sample of a timeline that actually happened, you can check out the short paper about German cases reported in January[0]. It appears to have taken 3–6 days from infection until symptoms started, and subsequently 2–4 days until patients felt…

Thanks! Based on that paper it seems likely that a vast number of people could have already been infected and simply have thought it was a "traditionally common" infection (common cold, for example).

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#259

Post by goblin89 »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #258
goblin89 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The day 1 in this case is the day symptoms begin. The 14 day figure is more of a recommendation for the duration of quarantine, intended to cover incubation period in excess. As a sample of a timeline that actually happened, you can check out the short paper about German cases reported in January[0]. It appears to have taken 3–6 days from infection until symptoms started, and subsequently 2–4 days until patients felt…

Thanks! Based on that paper it seems likely that a vast number of people could have already been infected and simply have thought it was a "traditionally common" infection (common cold, for example).

That’s what it appears to be. This might complicate the situation for older patients or patients with complications, who would have more difficulties dealing with this infection relative to common cold or flu, especially if they get admitted to a hospital late.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#260

Post by testvox »

skrause wrote: post #208
testvox wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is full payment if you are paid hourly?

You get paid as if you had worked the full amount of hours in your employment contract. Zero-hour contracts are illegal in Germany.

So yeah you lose out on pay if you were planning on working overtime.
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