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Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

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Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#241

Post by goatforce5 »

celdon25 wrote: post #220
goatforce5 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unrequested anecdata: my partner got a bad case of the flu (and epiglottis) a couple of years ago, and ended up spending 10 days in hospital - 7 in ICU, 3 on a normal ward. Total cost: $0. Thanks Canada! (Having said that, if you're visiting Canada you'll need to check your health coverage. Medical coverage is provided to Canadian residents, not just anyone who happens to be in Canada at the time.)

Before implying that Canada has the final answer to health care, note the other side of the tradeoff from a recent report published Dec 2019: "Fraser Institute has—for over two decades—surveyed specialist physicians across 12 specialties and 10 provinces. This edition of Waiting Your Turn indicates that, overall, waiting times for medically necessary treatment have increased since last year. Specialist physicians sur…

> Before implying that Canada has the final answer to health care

I provided details on a single instance of an interaction with the health system. Hence 'ancedata'. I made no claim that every interaction will have the same outcome.

> waiting times for medically necessary treatment have increased since last year

Do you have the data for wait times for other countries? And, I suppose, wait times of those in the US with and without private insurance?

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#242

Post by pbourke »

celdon25 wrote: post #238
pbourke wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. the Fraser institute is a right-wing think tank. They very much have an axe to grind here. 2. "medically necessary" does not tell you anything about the severity of illness or appropriateness of waiting. There are many medically necessary things for which it's okay to wait some time. In the Canadian system, things are dealt with at the level of urgency appropriate to the severity of the issue. Yes, it's not perfec…

> the Fraser institute is a right-wing think tank. That's very much an ad hominem fallacy, and unless you have specific evidence that they falsified the data in question, I'm just going to leave it at that (similarly to how you conclude that 'right wing' is enough of a reason to dismiss something). Last I checked, science doesn't care who you voted for. Once we start dismissing research based on the opinions of the r…

> That's very much an ad hominem fallacy

No, it would be an ad hominem if I said "the Fraser institute produced it, so you can safely line your bird cage with it". I didn't say that, I just pointed to the institution's well-known bias.

> Using politics to argue against science isn't appropriate.

Oh yeah, how dare I impugn non-peer reviewed "science" written by two non-PhD's, where 25% of the citations are to other non-peer reviewed reports written by the Fraser Institute and the others are random statscan links. This "science" is just a summary of responses to a questionnaire.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#243

Post by AnimalMuppet »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

Minor nit: If day 7 is when they are admitted, then day 17 is not when they are released. Day 24 is.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#244

Post by AnimalMuppet »

heartbeats wrote: post #31
LatteLazy wrote: post #4

This would be a fantastic time for the US to drop its bs rhetoric, work with Iran, and save lives both there and in the rest of the world.

No, it would be a terrible one. Geopolitical power is a zero-sum game. From the perspective of the US/Israel/Saudi Arabia: the more dead Iranians, the better.

From my perspective in the US, I absolutely reject your statement.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#245

Post by celdon25 »

pbourke wrote: post #242
celdon25 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the Fraser institute is a right-wing think tank. That's very much an ad hominem fallacy, and unless you have specific evidence that they falsified the data in question, I'm just going to leave it at that (similarly to how you conclude that 'right wing' is enough of a reason to dismiss something). Last I checked, science doesn't care who you voted for. Once we start dismissing research based on the opinions of the r…

> That's very much an ad hominem fallacy No, it would be an ad hominem if I said "the Fraser institute produced it, so you can safely line your bird cage with it". I didn't say that, I just pointed to the institution's well-known bias. > Using politics to argue against science isn't appropriate. Oh yeah, how dare I impugn non-peer reviewed "science" written by two non-PhD's, where 25% of the citations are to other no…

My argument still stands that Canadian health care should not be considered the final word in health care (which is not a very controversial opinion if we're being honest). I'll cite another report by the Wait Time Alliance, but I'll first quote their mission statement so we can rest assured that it won't have any taint of political bias:

> Mission Statement: WTA physicians are concerned over delayed access to health care for Canadians. We work collaboratively with our stakeholders to inform, advocate, and provide solutions to achieve timely, appropriate and equitable access to high-quality health care.

And now from the 2015 report itself (the most recent one):

> "Ontario reports that the maximum amount of time that nine out of 10 patients with complex needs spent to complete their ED visit and be admitted to the hospital was 25.7 hours (June 2015). The maximum amount of time that nine out of 10 patients with minor or uncomplicated conditions stayed in the ED was 4 hours. As outlined in previous WTA reports, many of the factors responsible for the lengthy waits to be admitted to a hospital bed are system-wide failures such as high numbers of ALC patients and a lack of community-based supports."

On primary care:

> Wait times are reported for each of the five regional primary care networks in the province. The average wait time for an appointment between January and March 2015 was 23 days, ranging from 0 to 72 days.

I can see a primary care doctor within 1-2 days here in the US. Even when I was on welfare, the wait times were no more than a few days.

So this report seems to be consistent with the one you were complaining about (which by the way was circulated and referenced widely by mainstream media). However, I see no evidence of "political bias" in this one so I hope you can accept that this isn't that controversial. These wait times are clear facts, not opinions. An opinion would be "Canada has the best health care system", which I am arguing against, citing facts.

Source: http://www.waittimealliance.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EN...

No, I do not think the US has the best system either, but pointing to Canada as a target benchmark is a non-starter from the way I see it.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#246

Post by radicalbyte »

jlokier wrote: post #236
jlokier wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that's an option. I lot of people cannot call in sick. Being sick means being unpaid, and many people cannot afford to go unpaid.

I was surprised to find this downvoted, as it's a harsh fact of life for many people, but not the majority of people. I should have said " For some people , being sick means...". The gist of the argument still applies: It is incorrect to assume everyone can afford to take a month off work when they are sick. I'm in a European juristiction - the UK. We have reasonable labour protections here. But they don't protect ev…

Coming from the UK, it shocked me to learn that you basically get full pay for two years of sickness in The Netherlands. The protection is so much better than the UK's system.

It can be abused though: I know of several cases where people are ill for two years, miracuously get better, work a month, then get ill for another two years.

Overall it's preferable to the UK situation.

Like you though I'm a freelancer; you earn more for less net work time so it's good.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#247

Post by heartbeats »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #244
heartbeats wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it would be a terrible one. Geopolitical power is a zero-sum game. From the perspective of the US/Israel/Saudi Arabia: the more dead Iranians, the better.

From my perspective in the US, I absolutely reject your statement.

Right, but you are not the U.S. government. When I think about it, the statement could be expanded. If we are strictly dealing with geopolitical power, we can replace "Iranians" with "non-Americans" and it will still be correct: a world in which all non-Americans are dead will be a world of great geopolitical power for the Americans.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#248

Post by pbourke »

celdon25 wrote: post #245
pbourke wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's very much an ad hominem fallacy No, it would be an ad hominem if I said "the Fraser institute produced it, so you can safely line your bird cage with it". I didn't say that, I just pointed to the institution's well-known bias. > Using politics to argue against science isn't appropriate. Oh yeah, how dare I impugn non-peer reviewed "science" written by two non-PhD's, where 25% of the citations are to other no…

My argument still stands that Canadian health care should not be considered the final word in health care (which is not a very controversial opinion if we're being honest). I'll cite another report by the Wait Time Alliance, but I'll first quote their mission statement so we can rest assured that it won't have any taint of political bias: > Mission Statement: WTA physicians are concerned over delayed access to health…

At the outset you said this:

> Before implying that Canada has the final answer to health care

You are the only person who's brought this up. I literally said "it's not perfect."

Here's what it comes down to. Population-wide health outcomes in Canada are certainly no worse than they are in the US. Arguably by a number of measures they're better. Health outcomes for the most economically-vulnerable segment of the population are much, much better in Canada. Nobody is bankrupted in Canada by medical care. It's the leading cause of bankruptcy in the US. Canada spends much less of its GDP per capita on healthcare than does the US. A large portion of the US is already covered by a patchwork-quilt national healthcare system.

Now whether you want to go with the Canadian system, or the UK's system, or the French system or the Swiss system - honestly I don't give a shit. People are dying because they can't afford to deal with the nightmare of a system here.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#249

Post by dchyrdvh »

londons_explore wrote: post #95
afthonos wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know in what way it isn’t treated as a big deal. There are daily updates from every country; the news covers the epidemic in detail; China quarantined tens of millions of people; major trade shows are being cancelled. Unless you literally mean bubonic-plague levels of panic, I’m not sure what else remains to be done in places where the disease has not yet fully spread.

I personally know experts in virology who are not working on a vaccine for this virus. Until all labs, equipment and experts are reassigned from whatever they are doing to finding a vaccine or cure, humanity is far from 'maximum response'. Assuming that world leaders are working in the best interests of their populations, that leads me to believe that whatever these experts and labs are currently studying is consider…

"Assuming that world leaders are working in the best interests of their populations" - I wouldn't make this assumption.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#250

Post by allovernow »

akie wrote: post #23
allovernow wrote: post #13

Is it time to start treating this like a big deal yet? Their first case was three weeks ago and 50 deaf already? This virus is unprecedented and it is only responsible for individuals with means to start preparing. No reason to wait for the government to tell you to do so. Plus each person that does it early is one less for the potential store rush.

> This virus is unprecedented I think you need to read up on your history.

This is already at least as bad as the Spanish Flu in terms of R0 and CFR. Yes, unprecedented.

Spanish Flu has an R0 of about 2[1]. Current published estimates for 2019-ncov are 2.3-3.8 for this paper [1] and there's another floating around which gets as high as 6-8.

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/

2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122...

Look at the rate of spread in Korea and Italy recently. Where numbers aren't being cooked like in China. 3 weeks from first infection to Nationwide pandemic. Unprecedented.

This is the first time something so virulent has struck humans living with this kind of density. This will have massive ramifications for global geopolitics because it will show the weakness of centralizing production in third world countries and becoming dependent. Rumors abound in china about elites, professors, researchers, lawyers speaking out against the government. 2500 of them allegedly signed a petition demanding free speech. This virus will test the resilience and ingenuity of the human race.

Unprecedented.

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