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Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

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11–20 of 256 posts

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#11
AI on the algo side is only half the story -- it has to sit in a domain specific framework to be most effective

I see a lot of 'bolt-on' tech emerging -- it looks mostly snake oil -- there is no obvious way to be competitive against teams that baked it in to the bare metal design

Also most commercial use-cases I've seen need effective ML more than anything else

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#14
post #6

The number of places where machine learning can be used effectively from both a cost perspective and a return perspective are small. They are usually tremendously large datasets at gigantic companies, and they probably have to build in house expertise because it's hard to package this up into a product and resell it for various industries, datasets, etc. Certainly something like autonomous driving needs machine learn…

How would you explain the rise (and success) of machine learning in science? A lab that uses some learning-based method will likely be limited to just one or two people (responsible for data acquisition, feature engineering, evaluation, etc.) and extremely finite data.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#15
No need to look at AZ for this. If you're building "AI" I wish you a speedy road to being acquired by a company that can put it to use. You've become a high priced recruiting firm.

If you're solving a real problem and use ML in service of solving that problem, then you've got a great moat....happy trusting customers.

It's not complicated

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#16
post #8

"Huge compute bills" usually come from training, or to be more precise, hyperparameter search that's required before you find a model that works well. You could also fail to find such a model, but that's another discussion. So yeah, you could spend one or two FTE salaries' (or one deep learning PhD's) worth of cash on finding such models for your startup if you insist on helping Jeff Bezos to wipe his tears with cris…

For balance, all big cloud providers - aws, gcp, azure, oracle [0] have pretty similar startup plans. Y$$MV

(I'm in full agreement with everything you've written + it's well-phrased and funny. gj!)

[0] that's not a typo - there is such thing as "Oracle cloud"

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#17
post #6

The number of places where machine learning can be used effectively from both a cost perspective and a return perspective are small. They are usually tremendously large datasets at gigantic companies, and they probably have to build in house expertise because it's hard to package this up into a product and resell it for various industries, datasets, etc. Certainly something like autonomous driving needs machine learn…

How would you explain the rise (and success) of machine learning in science? A lab that uses some learning-based method will likely be limited to just one or two people (responsible for data acquisition, feature engineering, evaluation, etc.) and extremely finite data.

How do you define success? Adoption? Because right now, writing "we will use machine learning to solve X" in a grant proposal is an easy way to increase chances of getting funding.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#18
post #8

"Huge compute bills" usually come from training, or to be more precise, hyperparameter search that's required before you find a model that works well. You could also fail to find such a model, but that's another discussion. So yeah, you could spend one or two FTE salaries' (or one deep learning PhD's) worth of cash on finding such models for your startup if you insist on helping Jeff Bezos to wipe his tears with cris…

> Just don't call it a "datacenter" or NVIDIA will have a stroke.

Context please :) ?

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#19
post #6

The number of places where machine learning can be used effectively from both a cost perspective and a return perspective are small. They are usually tremendously large datasets at gigantic companies, and they probably have to build in house expertise because it's hard to package this up into a product and resell it for various industries, datasets, etc. Certainly something like autonomous driving needs machine learn…

How would you explain the rise (and success) of machine learning in science? A lab that uses some learning-based method will likely be limited to just one or two people (responsible for data acquisition, feature engineering, evaluation, etc.) and extremely finite data.

It's not clear there has been any deep impact actually, but there has been a lot of discussion (and grant proposals)

I've seen a lot of cross pollination of ML and AI techniques into various disciplines. A large percentage just didn't work at all, most of the rest were more "kind of interesting, but". Nothing earthshaking happened although pop sci press likes to talk about it a lot.

If you have more digital data than you used to, using modern free frameworks and toolkits to do basic (i.e. older, boring, but understood) ML stuff to understand it seems to have a reasonable return. Mostly I think this is because it becomes accessible to someone without much background in the area, and you can do reasonable things without having to put 6 months of reading and implementing together before starting.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#20
post #8

"Huge compute bills" usually come from training, or to be more precise, hyperparameter search that's required before you find a model that works well. You could also fail to find such a model, but that's another discussion. So yeah, you could spend one or two FTE salaries' (or one deep learning PhD's) worth of cash on finding such models for your startup if you insist on helping Jeff Bezos to wipe his tears with cris…

- Or AMD could change their policy of 'never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity' and offer high-performance OpenCL GPGPU offerings. Then nVidia could have all the stroke they wanted.

- Or Tensorflow/Pytorch could've crapped on OpenCL a little less by releasing a fully functional OpenCL version everytime they released a fully functional Cuda version, instead of worshipping Cuda year in and year out.

- Or Google could start selling their TPUv2, if not TPUv3, while they're on the verge of releasing TPUv4.

- Or one of the other big-tech's Facebook/Microsoft/Intel could make and start selling a TPU-equivalent device.

- Or I could finish school and get funded to do all/most of the above ;)

edit: On a more serious note, a cloud/on-prem hybrid is absolutely the right way to go. You should have a 4x 2080 ti rig available 24x7 for every ML engineer. It costs about $6k-8k a piece [0]. Prototype the hell out of your models on on-prem hardware. Then when your setup is in working condition and starts producing good results on small problems, you're ready to do a big computation for final model training. Then you send it to the cloud, for final production run. (Guess what, on a majority of your projects, you might realize, the final production run could be carried out on on-prem itself; you just have to keep it running 24 hours-a-day for a few days or up to a couple weeks.)

[0]: https://l7.curtisnorthcutt.com/the-best-4-gpu-deep-learning-...

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