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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#351

Post by hajile »

WaltPurvis wrote: post #298
big_chungus wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At the same time you shouldn't assume experts, the media, etc. are somehow mass conspiring against your health/safety. Assessments are probably reasonable to follow. True, but it's also not their job to work for my personal benefit. Mine is. Their job is to do the greatest good for the greatest number, but what is good for the most people is not always good for me. My job is to keep myself and my family safe, and I…

> the mortality rates aren't all that high (a few percent) That's about the same mortality rate as the pandemic flu of 1918, which wasn't exactly a walk in the park.

We don't actually know mortality. By the numbers, 2,470 deaths, 23,419 recoveries, and 53,105 undecided cases.

10% of all settled cases resulted in death. That is far higher than the 3% of Spanish Flu and reasonably close to SARS. Median time to death is around 12 days which is similar to time to recovery meaning the 10% seems likely to be an accurate metric.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html

The most interesting part is the ages of cases. Last I checked, there were ZERO deaths of children 9 and under. Mortality rates hover at around 0.2 to 0.3% until over 50.

The really big unknown for me is the weird SARS antibody Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) effect. Basically, if the antibody levels get too low and reinfection occurs, the disease becomes much more lethal than if no antibodies are present at all. This effect is now known to be the reason mortality rates for a second case of Dengue fever are so high. In SARS, the disease disappeared before reinfection was an issue. In the case of a pandemic, a second, more lethal wave could be disastrous (if this is also possible with COVID-19). This could also complicate naive vaccines that don't account for possible secondary, enhanced infections.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X1...

All that said, I'm not super-worried.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#352

Post by dredmorbius »

dredmorbius wrote: post #217
patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Disclaimer: I am not a healthcare expert. You might care to read from those who are: https://www.ready.gov/pandemic 2019-nCoV is a viral disease spread by droplets and close physical contact, possibly by contaminated fluids, including human waste (sewage). Literature I've seen suggests relatively close prolonged contact is necessary -- hours around an infected individual. There've been some "super spreaders", includi…

One possible high-risk vector: if you live in close contact with others and have shared plumbing, poor isolation betweeen drains might be a potential vector.

In the SARS oubreak, one superspreader infected numerous other people at a Hong Kong hotel. Diarrhoea and vomiting were among the victim's symptoms, and seven other guests on the same floor fell ill. How specifically the virus spread (plumbing, ventilation, housekeeping staff) isn't clear, but as with the cases of cruise ships in the current outbreak, close quarters and susceptible populations is a bad combination.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/hong-kong-hotel-hosted-super...

In the present coronavirus outbreak, "patient 31" has been identified as a common factor amonst 23 cases involving a South Korean church:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/19/world/asia/19reut...

Again: avoiding large gatherings with potentially poor hygiene and/or sanitation, in an oubreak situation, would tend to be useful advice.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#353

Post by jopsen »

irq11 wrote: post #340
peanut_is_yum wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the tip! Since I hadn't lived thru anything that threatened my society, I never believed in stocking up on non-perishables. However, the fact that I'm living thru a potential pandemic convinces me that we as a race aren't nearly as resilient as our modern amenities and high QoL suggest.

News you can use: you’re living through multiple pandemics , all the time. There’s a flu pandemic (several, actually), that are far more immediately threatening to you than this virus. Society has not yet fallen.

Does this have a very different fatality rate that the flu does?

Also many at-risk patients are vaccinated against the flu.

Besides, even if you are likely to survive and all, it's still wise to plan for everybody else to panic ;)

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#354

Post by jopsen »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #200
jcranmer wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since you're mostly counting hurricanes, here's a list of all category 4+ hurricanes that hit the US, although most were not that strength when they actually made landfall: * Hurricane Isabel (5, 2003) * Hurricane Charley (4, 2004) * Hurricane Ivan (5, 2004) * Hurricane Dennis (4, 2005) * Hurricane Katrina (5, 2005) * Hurricane Rita (5, 2005) * Hurricane Wilma (5, 2005) * Hurricane Ike (4, 2008) * Hurricane Matthew (…

And how many of them required anything but the standard response from authorities? I can't think of any aside from Katrina and Maria. But it's when an atypical response is warranted that authorities ability to respond is tested. Based on that metric, the track record is poor. There's also the concern of incentives. The authorities are incentivized to treat every emergency as requiring nothing over and above the stand…

How much response a hurricane requires depends a lot on building codes and other local regulation.

If it requires a lot of response it's often because of failure to plan/build accordingly.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#355

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

empath75 wrote: post #233
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mortality rate for hospitalized flu patients in the US is about 10%. Mortality rates of categories like "serious cases" depend on a bunch of arbitrary and unverifiable assumptions, so I don't think this proves the coronavirus is bad or isn't bad, but 10% isn't as high of a number as I think you're intuitively expecting.

The mortality rate for hospitalized corona virus patients is closer to 50%

Source? That doesn't match anything I've seen.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#356

Post by greendestiny_re »

I loathe these kinds of clickbait headlines with all my being and will not give them my click under any circumstances. I can only imagine the writer twisting his/her nipples in expectation of all the extra traffic he/she will get from Hacker News.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#357

Post by dredmorbius »

popotamonga wrote: post #15
pyk wrote: post #9

Recommendations for what individuals can do are buried but very practical: * Try to get a few extra months’ worth of prescription meds, if possible. * Think through now how we will take care of sick family members while trying not to get infected. Cross-train key staff at work so one person’s absence won’t derail our organization’s ability to function. * Practice touching our faces less. So how about a face-counter a…

Is hand saniziter any good, for when you touched the wrong places?

Yes. Alcohol is sufficient, antibiotic treatments are useless against viruses.

Wet wipes may also be convenient.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#358

Post by dredmorbius »

jacquesm wrote: post #146
nednar wrote: post #61

Well. Infection rate is going down already. Death rate is starting to slow down. Death rate was never higher than a common flu. Healing rate is increasing drastically, many heal without medical needs. So, should we really talk about a pandemic? A flu pandemic? Or has the virus changed in the last few days and I've missed it?

Infection rate in China is going down and the way they keep changing their criteria makes it hard to find continuity in the numbers. Elsewhere it is still rising.

Day-to-day percentages are the numbers to watch. They're coming down nicely: 0.8% vs. steady 20% (31-Jan - 4-Feb), as high as 64% in late January.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#/...

Rest-of-world is going the wrong way.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#359

Post by emmelaich »

jacquesm wrote: post #269
the-dude wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the spread in Italy?

Or Iran, for that matter. https://time.com/5789360/iran-coronavirus-death-toll/ 8 dead on 43 cases suggests severe under-reporting of the number of people infected. That in turn suggests that testing is inadequate which may cause the disease to spread further than necessary. The fact that infected Iranians have turned up in Lebanon and Canada is further proof that the number of infections is likely higher than report…

What interests me is the low or zero figures elsewhere.

Especially Indonesia; surely they have significant numbers of Chinese travellers?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#360

Post by senordevnyc »

irq11 wrote: post #348
lliamander wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but we have vaccines for the flu, and as far as I can tell this is far more contagious. Even with a lower mortality rate, the death toll could be much higher. If things do start getting bad, I expect it might happen rather suddenly.

It is about as contagious as the flu. Stop fear-mongering. Also, not for nothing: most people don’t get the flu vaccine, despite endless begging on the part of health officials.

It’s much, much deadlier and more likely to put you in the hospital than the flu, though. The trite comparisons to the flu are honestly irresponsible at this point. There’s a reason public health officials all over the world are taking this very seriously.
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