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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#341

Post by irq11 »

WaltPurvis wrote: post #298
big_chungus wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At the same time you shouldn't assume experts, the media, etc. are somehow mass conspiring against your health/safety. Assessments are probably reasonable to follow. True, but it's also not their job to work for my personal benefit. Mine is. Their job is to do the greatest good for the greatest number, but what is good for the most people is not always good for me. My job is to keep myself and my family safe, and I…

> the mortality rates aren't all that high (a few percent) That's about the same mortality rate as the pandemic flu of 1918, which wasn't exactly a walk in the park.

...in 1918. When we didn’t have things like antibiotics or mechanical ventilators (or even a solid grasp on germ theory).

Non-adjusted comparisons to medical outcomes in 1918 are useless.

(pre-empting the criticism: antibiotics absolutely matter for a viral outbreak like this. Many people who die from respiratory illness actually die from secondary bacterial pneumonia.)

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#342

Post by swsieber »

thenaturalist wrote: post #296
swsieber wrote: post #145

To those commenting about infection rate going down: Do you take into account that China relaxed the requirements for diagnosing a case many days ago, and then made them strict again a couple of days ago? That's one sucky move that makes thing seem like they're slowing down. Or so you just look at graph and think everything is fine? Or is everything actually improving even taking the reporting changes into account?

Got any sources for these claims?

It's well documented in various day to day coverage feeds. The one I'm thinking about is CNN. I'm pretty sure its public information disseminated by China.

Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainland_China_during_the_20...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#343

Post by swsieber »

hazeii wrote: post #335
WaltPurvis wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the mortality rates aren't all that high (a few percent) That's about the same mortality rate as the pandemic flu of 1918, which wasn't exactly a walk in the park.

Tricky to compare, because health care is better these days so mortality would be expected to be lower (unless the system is overwhelmed, of course).

Uh, they don't calculate the mortality rate of the virus by guessing how many people would have died in 1900's care. The mortality rate is that high because that's the percentage of people currently dying.

Mortality rates are easy to compare - they are numbers that take healthcare and disease intensity into account because they are statistics from observation.

If anything, the numbers suggest that had the covid-19 struck in 1918, the mortality rate would have been higher.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#344

Post by swsieber »

irq11 wrote: post #341
WaltPurvis wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the mortality rates aren't all that high (a few percent) That's about the same mortality rate as the pandemic flu of 1918, which wasn't exactly a walk in the park.

...in 1918. When we didn’t have things like antibiotics or mechanical ventilators (or even a solid grasp on germ theory). Non-adjusted comparisons to medical outcomes in 1918 are useless. (pre-empting the criticism: antibiotics absolutely matter for a viral outbreak like this. Many people who die from respiratory illness actually die from secondary bacterial pneumonia.)

The observed mortality rate already accounts for advances in medicine that are actively being used, no? Mortality rates are easy to compare: x% died back then and y% die now. Those numbers take into account the various characteristics of the disease and health care.

People aren't saying this acts like the 1918 disease so it should have the same mortality rate. People are saying the observed mortality rate is the same. That's in spite of medical advances.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#345

Post by lliamander »

irq11 wrote: post #340
peanut_is_yum wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the tip! Since I hadn't lived thru anything that threatened my society, I never believed in stocking up on non-perishables. However, the fact that I'm living thru a potential pandemic convinces me that we as a race aren't nearly as resilient as our modern amenities and high QoL suggest.

News you can use: you’re living through multiple pandemics , all the time. There’s a flu pandemic (several, actually), that are far more immediately threatening to you than this virus. Society has not yet fallen.

Yes, but we have vaccines for the flu, and as far as I can tell this is far more contagious. Even with a lower mortality rate, the death toll could be much higher.

If things do start getting bad, I expect it might happen rather suddenly.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#346

Post by stallmanite »

carbocation wrote: post #316
stallmanite wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the exceptions are the things you really don’t want to be running out of. Which is extremely unfortunate and silly given that those who want to source these things illicitly will do so and those who follow the rules will suffer.

Not sure what you're referring to. I'm thinking of medications like injectables, which may not have a sufficient shelf life to permit getting the full set of supplies all at once. But most of the medications which are life-threatening if withheld (e.g., antiplatelet medications after a stent) can be obtained in bulk with a normal prescription.

I was thinking of Adderall specifically but in the case of Benzodiazepines, withdrawals can be fatal and they’re controlled substances so presumably ineligible for the 3 months prescription.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#347

Post by johnchristopher »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #192
johnwheeler wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theorists tend to mistake incompetence for malice; or partial incompetence for total incompetence. Hurricane Katrina doesn’t invalidate health and building codes; education; law enforcement and EPA, FAA, and SEC regulations. Decisions made are both bad and good, but it’s irrational to think the decision makers are generally untrustworthy.

It is perfectly rational to distrust decision makers, it makes no difference whether the intent is malicious or it is just incompetence. The end result is the same.

I trust them to be malicious enough to hide their incompetence.

I am working with some, not in a high risk domain at all and I worry the same kind of people work in high risk domains (sometimes they work in both, next election they might move to another minister).

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#348

Post by irq11 »

lliamander wrote: post #345
irq11 wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

News you can use: you’re living through multiple pandemics , all the time. There’s a flu pandemic (several, actually), that are far more immediately threatening to you than this virus. Society has not yet fallen.

Yes, but we have vaccines for the flu, and as far as I can tell this is far more contagious. Even with a lower mortality rate, the death toll could be much higher. If things do start getting bad, I expect it might happen rather suddenly.

It is about as contagious as the flu. Stop fear-mongering.

Also, not for nothing: most people don’t get the flu vaccine, despite endless begging on the part of health officials.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#349

Post by irq11 »

swsieber wrote: post #344
irq11 wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...in 1918. When we didn’t have things like antibiotics or mechanical ventilators (or even a solid grasp on germ theory). Non-adjusted comparisons to medical outcomes in 1918 are useless. (pre-empting the criticism: antibiotics absolutely matter for a viral outbreak like this. Many people who die from respiratory illness actually die from secondary bacterial pneumonia.)

The observed mortality rate already accounts for advances in medicine that are actively being used, no? Mortality rates are easy to compare: x% died back then and y% die now. Those numbers take into account the various characteristics of the disease and health care. People aren't saying this acts like the 1918 disease so it should have the same mortality rate. People are saying the observed mortality rate is the same…

You’re making a lot of assumptions. Sure, if the reported death rate is correct (it isn’t; it’s going to end up much lower), and the medical system in Wuhan is up to first-world standards (it isn’t; they’ve had to scramble to build halfway adequate infrastructure for the population), and the distribution of victims is the same as the 1918 flu (it isn’t; this virus kills mainly old, sick people), then sure, you can just compare mortality rates.

But since none of those things are true, you can’t. It’s not like these parameters are fixed; they’re dramatically affected by the time and context in which they’re measured.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#350

Post by WaltPurvis »

irq11 wrote: post #341
WaltPurvis wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the mortality rates aren't all that high (a few percent) That's about the same mortality rate as the pandemic flu of 1918, which wasn't exactly a walk in the park.

...in 1918. When we didn’t have things like antibiotics or mechanical ventilators (or even a solid grasp on germ theory). Non-adjusted comparisons to medical outcomes in 1918 are useless. (pre-empting the criticism: antibiotics absolutely matter for a viral outbreak like this. Many people who die from respiratory illness actually die from secondary bacterial pneumonia.)

They're hardly useless, and if the current virus is killing the same percentage of people as the 1918 flu despite all of our medical advances, that's a strong indicator the current virus is significantly more potent, which makes the blithe assertion that "the mortality rates aren't all that high" even more dubious.
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