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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#221

Post by pureagave »

thewebcount wrote: post #125
dangrossman wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Until that happens, I don't even know what to /do/ with that kind of "advice." My wife asked once, and was told that 3 month supply prescriptions are common for people that use mail order pharmacies, and was happy to write one. Insurance covered it too, since the refill schedule was every 3 months -- it comes out to the same cost in the end.

Again, that depends on the med. Your monthly allergy prescription? Sure! Your oxy Rx? No way. My spouse and I are on some meds (not oxy) that they absolutely would not refill for 3 months at a time. My other meds do come in 3 month prescriptions from a mail order pharmacy.

Sure, It really depends on the potential for abuse and the doctor's decision. There are a lot of critical medications that aren't likely to be abused. If you check with your doctor they may very well write you the prescriptions you need if you ask and explain why.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#222

Post by hysan »

SahAssar wrote: post #154
hysan wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there must be some sort of internet law that says, “gross incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.”

Pretty sure you are kidding, but for the benefit of future readers: > Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

Was not kidding and thank you :)

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#223

Post by [deleted] »

jacquesm wrote: post #177
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plans the US already has for a flu pandemic should mostly carry over, no? COVID is probably worse than the seasonal flu, but it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do.

> it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do. By about 3-4 orders of magnitude, it is. The flu tends to kill about 60K people annually and most of those are old or very young or already had a compromised immune system. This is with the figures known so far and before there is a vaccine around 2-3%. If left unchecked it would overwhelm available health care capacity pretty quickly. The Chine…

[deleted]

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#224

Post by Frost1x »

dkarl wrote: post #140

The article becomes much less edgy if you know what the authorities are actually saying. For example, the American CDC, in USA Today[1]: "Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday that U.S. health officials are preparing for the coronavirus to become a pandemic." "'We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but i…

Following a few comments from experts in the field and looking at some of the data being presented, it's fairly obvious this pandemic case was reasonably high. There are of course lots of unknowns models used can't account for but that's no reason to discard the potential risk entirely.

Keep in mind, many of these decisions to avoid "pandemic" talk try to take most holistic views in regards to public safety/health. There is a lot of consideration regarding deaths cause by panic actions which are often estimated/modeled as well and if panic related deaths and side effects are higher than a current actual threat, it's often viewed that the best course of action is to suppress panic until warranted.

So lack of pandemic talk doesn't inherently mean there is a legitimate reason not to panic, just that you're being given limited information. At the same time you shouldn't assume experts, the media, etc. are somehow mass conspiring against your health/safety. Assessments are probably reasonable to follow.

The best course of action is to also take a holistic look at situations independent of these groups and make your own rational assessment of risks and impact.

If you don't already have some non-perishable food supplies, you should have completely irrespective of this specific recent viral outbreak--its basic preparedness for emergencies.

Some basic preparedness (I'm not talking bunkers and 2 year food cache craziness) are warranted in general for unpredictable disaster cases so these situations are good reminders for people to check their pantry for food, etc. just in case something awful was to happen, those supplies can help significantly.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#225

Post by stallmanite »

RandomBacon wrote: post #107
arkades wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong. Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well,…

Ask the doctor to write your prescription for three months. Call up insurance company and get a "vacation" flag/whatever which will pay for three months. (Source: I used to do this)

Great now try it with Adderall. It won’t be allowed.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#226

Post by simias »

jacquesm wrote: post #51
johnwheeler wrote: post #49

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

I wonder how those questions would be answered by that doctor that tried to ring the alarm but was silenced.

I don't see how that relates at all. The parent is talking about how we perceive information and especially information that comes from authoritative sources.

That doctor had first-hand experience of what was happening and the authorities getting in his way when he tried to get the word out. He was never in a position where he had to decide between going with the consensus or follow a fringe theory, but rather whether to follow the obviously incorrect official version instead of what he could see with his own two eyes.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#227

Post by senordevnyc »

robjan wrote: post #151
jessaustin wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why didn't the government use some of the buffer to smooth out this apparently artificial demand spike? That is what every other nation on earth uses its agricultural surplus to do.

Because there was no emergency and people weren't starving. It just became very inconvenient to go shopping.

Then it doesn’t sound like this was “quite irresponsible” as you claimed, either.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#228

Post by Ninjak8051 »

carapace wrote: post #191
Ninjak8051 wrote: post #170

When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail, and when you're a virus researcher, every outbreak looks like a pandemic. The facts on the ground don't match the pandemic conclusion. There were two cases in all of Santa Clara County a few weeks ago, now there is one case.

Got a link for that?

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#229

Post by aazaa »

> ... In most countries ... ordinary citizens have not been asked to prepare. Instead, they have been led to expect that their governments will keep the virus from their doors.

This will be a painful but necessary shift. Realizing there's no way to stop the spread of coronavirus from "over there" to "over here," the best move individuals and groups can take is to forego large gatherings:

> ... the switch to measures like canceling mass events designed to keep us from infecting each other.

How long this will take is anybody's guess. But any organization still planning a conference of more than a few dozen people should really stop and consider the wisdom of that plan at this point.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#230

Post by nednar »

jacquesm wrote: post #146
nednar wrote: post #61

Well. Infection rate is going down already. Death rate is starting to slow down. Death rate was never higher than a common flu. Healing rate is increasing drastically, many heal without medical needs. So, should we really talk about a pandemic? A flu pandemic? Or has the virus changed in the last few days and I've missed it?

Infection rate in China is going down and the way they keep changing their criteria makes it hard to find continuity in the numbers. Elsewhere it is still rising.

Actually the changes in China are the reason why the number increased from 40k+ to 60k+ wasn't it?
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