Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 394 posts

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#141

Post by Aperocky »

johnwheeler wrote: post #100
etangent wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of the other three points, it is generally rational to mistrust authority because many authorities have repeatedly failed in the past to protect lives during emergency scenarios.

Conspiracy theorists tend to mistake incompetence for malice; or partial incompetence for total incompetence. Hurricane Katrina doesn’t invalidate health and building codes; education; law enforcement and EPA, FAA, and SEC regulations. Decisions made are both bad and good, but it’s irrational to think the decision makers are generally untrustworthy.

One of the most glaring flaws of the conspiracy theorists is that they assume authority are bad for bad sake, like they're some mindless evil that does bad thing for .. no apparent reason. Even though the priorities of authority might not be aligned with that of the people, it is still a set of rational priorities, for personal gain etc. Too many conspiracy theorist make no sense because the act they suspect authority do does not make any sense for anybody.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#142

Post by jacquesm »

hu3 wrote: post #97

This might sound tasteless but... What's the probable impact of such pandemy on the stock market? Any low hanging fruit to invest on? Any category of assets to stay away from?

Travel stocks and travel related stocks down, health related stocks up would be my first guess.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#143

Post by RobertRoberts »

jacquesm wrote: post #47
RobertRoberts wrote: post #34

Give me the numbers. People panic over everything imaginable. The only defense is logic. (which unfortunately is only a slow and long term defense) At this point I feel I am more likely to win the lottery and get struck my lightning twice before I get this virus. And even then, what is the death rate for healthy adults? It's amazing how easily people freak out these days.

At this point, yes. But that's not the way to look at this. The way to look at this is what will happen over the next couple of weeks/months and to what degree we can avoid community spreading once the virus achieves a foothold, which - sorry - at this point is mostly a matter of time. Containment can be done early on and if done effectively can get you back into your 'no need to worry' mode. But once containment has…

There is a lot I can do for my family and friends about helping them not be _irrationally_ afraid.

Eliminating irrational fear is valuable. Spreading undue panic is reprehensible.

What are the numbers? What is the risk equation? If we avoid these, then we are not speaking from knowledge but simply guessing and editorializing. Which tends towards panic, not rationality.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#144

Post by maxerickson »

jacquesm wrote: post #122
exikyut wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps that's why there's no point declaring a pandemic. If you do, some prepare, some panic, the panicking ones clog the ICU and the virus spreads like wildfire, the ICU can't keep up. If you don't, nobody prepares, everybody's sprung upon and taken by surprise, the stampedes oversubscribe ICU capacity in much the same way as above. At the end of the day I think the two variables all of this boils down to are infra…

The difference is that we can recognize that containment has failed and start planning accordingly. I don't think any rational authority is at this point still arguing that this will be contained to within the borders of those countries now affected. So you might as well accept that we do indeed have a pandemic on our hands, which will have substantial economic impact but need not have a substantial toll in terms of…

There's a lot of options between "ignoring it" and "declaring a global pandemic".

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#145

Post by swsieber »

To those commenting about infection rate going down:

Do you take into account that China relaxed the requirements for diagnosing a case many days ago, and then made them strict again a couple of days ago? That's one sucky move that makes thing seem like they're slowing down. Or so you just look at graph and think everything is fine? Or is everything actually improving even taking the reporting changes into account?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#146

Post by jacquesm »

nednar wrote: post #61

Well. Infection rate is going down already. Death rate is starting to slow down. Death rate was never higher than a common flu. Healing rate is increasing drastically, many heal without medical needs. So, should we really talk about a pandemic? A flu pandemic? Or has the virus changed in the last few days and I've missed it?

Infection rate in China is going down and the way they keep changing their criteria makes it hard to find continuity in the numbers. Elsewhere it is still rising.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#147

Post by Aperocky »

toofy wrote: post #117
etangent wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of the other three points, it is generally rational to mistrust authority because many authorities have repeatedly failed in the past to protect lives during emergency scenarios.

This could easily be an issue of colloquial interpretation barriers, but there is a significant difference between healthy skepticism and a mistrust driven by assuming the other party is always acting in bad faith. Like I said, this could be a simple misunderstanding of concepts, but there is a percentage of the population who have drifted from a healthy skepticism into paranoidTown where they assume good faith peopl…

> always acting in bad faith.

Not just that, they're always acting in bad faith and most of time even against their own interest! To cause harm to _$you_ specifically because $you're so important.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#148

Post by jessaustin »

klipt wrote: post #123
jessaustin wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This point of view is reasonable only if food disruption is actually very unlikely. If there were food supply disruption in Hong Kong, having a great deal of nonperishable and frozen food on hand would be a good idea for most residents, wouldn't it? The fact that rumors were enough to generate shortages for a month in itself confirms a certain degree of insecurity...

That's just how densely populated islands function. If you're a doomsday prepper on a densely populated island, your first step should probably be to move somewhere that's not a densely populated island.

Doomsday prepping on the "densely populated island" requires a great deal more wealth than it does elsewhere (also, offshore speedboats and firearms!), but one needn't be a doomsday prepper to react to credible rumors of upcoming food shortages.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#149

Post by zrail »

bpfrh wrote: post #13

There is a video which compares that to other causes of deaths and other "pandemics": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU Please stop threating the virus as if we would all die. The things you have in the article should be the things you should do anyway: -No touching your face, is something you should stop anyway, as the flu will also kill you if you have bad luck and it is the same problem -Having certain t…

Supply chains have already started to break down in at least a few sectors. China, Japan, India and Korea are where lots of stuff is made, including electronic components and drugs and drug components. China at least slowed shipping way down over the last month.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#150

Post by dx87 »

thewebcount wrote: post #125
dangrossman wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Until that happens, I don't even know what to /do/ with that kind of "advice." My wife asked once, and was told that 3 month supply prescriptions are common for people that use mail order pharmacies, and was happy to write one. Insurance covered it too, since the refill schedule was every 3 months -- it comes out to the same cost in the end.

Again, that depends on the med. Your monthly allergy prescription? Sure! Your oxy Rx? No way. My spouse and I are on some meds (not oxy) that they absolutely would not refill for 3 months at a time. My other meds do come in 3 month prescriptions from a mail order pharmacy.

Yep, I'm on a medication that is commonly abused so they only allow 30 day prescriptions, and you can't pay with cash, it has to go through insurance.
Post reply on HN