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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

61–70 of 394 posts

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#61
Well. Infection rate is going down already. Death rate is starting to slow down. Death rate was never higher than a common flu. Healing rate is increasing drastically, many heal without medical needs.

So, should we really talk about a pandemic? A flu pandemic? Or has the virus changed in the last few days and I've missed it?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#62

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

> That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. This is my thoughts why Covid-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal flu: first it is much more virulent, and hard to detect, many of the infections in Korea were due to one 61 years old woman alone. Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious ca…

> Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10%

Even worse... The mortality rate is 100% in fatal cases...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. This is my thoughts why Covid-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal flu: first it is much more virulent, and hard to detect, many of the infections in Korea were due to one 61 years old woman alone. Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious ca…

> Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10% (please correct me if I am wrong). I don't think we actually know that for sure. The flu mortality rates that get tossed around are the overall mortality rates, but for COVID-19 as far as I know we only know the mortality rates among those who have tested positive. Especially in a situation like what's going on, this…

Fair enough, there is still a good amount of uncertainty. But even so with the data available 2-3% seems realistic taking into account that some under-reporting will also be happening because people die that were never tested in the first place. The testing capacity of the countries where the virus has now solidly established itself is maxed out.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#64

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it

I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong.

Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well, depends on the med, right? I used to take an antacid that had a sticker price of about 800/mo.

For almost anyone, "stock up on an extra month of prescription meds" isn't a thing. It's just not a choice. For it to /be/ a thing, someone actually needs to write a law stating something like "once per calendar year, a physician can write an extra parallel prescription for a supply of medications not exceeding three months, and insurers must pay for it," or somesuch.

Until that happens, I don't even know what to /do/ with that kind of "advice."

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#66

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

InfoWars types. Arrogant paranoia often manifested in tribal communities that reinforce similar delusions.

Recent example: the mom who killed her husband, brother and kids because she and her new lover believe in an "apocalypse" summer 2020.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#67

Give me the numbers. People panic over everything imaginable. The only defense is logic. (which unfortunately is only a slow and long term defense) At this point I feel I am more likely to win the lottery and get struck my lightning twice before I get this virus. And even then, what is the death rate for healthy adults? It's amazing how easily people freak out these days.

For healthy adults death from a pandemic is rare, but in a true pandemic large parts of society are expected to stop working.

If you are only interested in your own well being (which is fairly uncommon, do you not have family or friends?) Then make sure you have stocks of food, water and small bills.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#68

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Food items should include things you can eat while/after your digestive system is wrecked, also known as the BRAT diet, bananas, rice, apple sauce and toast.

I’ve read BRAT diet is not recommended for kids any more.

https://www.aafp.org/afp/2012/0601/p1066.html

https://pedsinreview.aappublications.org/content/37/8/313

https://health.howstuffworks.com/diseases-conditions/digesti...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#69
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The specific advice for food storage is "weeks" not couple months - the couple months is directed at prescription meds. The different timelines allocated is likely due to the relative feasibility, the risk of running out, and the ease of resupply.

Advising people to store food en masses is quite irresponsible. We have had rice, noodle, pasta, bleach and toilet paper shortages for around a month in Hong Kong caused by panic buying triggered by a rumour that there would be a supply disruption. We also went weeks where all of the fresh food was being bought out and frozen.

It's responsible to have built up the food supply over long periods of no shortage. Unfortunately the people who have that foresight are often called paranoid.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#70

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

What medicine should we purchase? What antivirals work well on it?

They mean prescription medicines, that your doctor has prescribed for things unrelated to the virus.

During an outbreak you can expect a pharmacy to be super busy and possibly mobbed. Not ideal if you're out of medicine you're dependant on.

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