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Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

thelancet.com

71–80 of 407 posts

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#71

What I don't get is how do 37 million Americans not have health insurance when the ACA was suppose to fix that issue? All of the plans are adjusted based on your income level and you get a tax credit if you are low income. If you are very poor then you get free healthcare....

It’s severely hampered in many states and healthcare isn’t even mandated nationally anymore.

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#72

I am sure, on paper, it is a brilliant plan. Unfortunately, reality and human behavior almost never follow the plan. Is waste, fraud, and abuse taken into account at all in this study? What about the inevitable changes to consumers' motivation, behavior, and decision making around healthcare? It will change drastically as the cost of their care is even further removed from them than it is now. People who have a procl…

Did you read it? Also, are you familiar with any modern nations where a single-payer healthcare system has been tried? Perhaps we could use them to predict the effects.

> Is waste, fraud, and abuse taken into account at all in this study?

From the paper: "In addition to savings on overheads, a comprehensive database of health-care charges would facilitate detection of fraud, which extracts $85·7 billion every year. Following the transition to a single-payer system in Taiwan, an 8% reduction in overall national expenditure was attributed to the reduction in fraud. By moving from a fragmented health-care payment system to a unified system, irregularities in provider claims can be more easily detected. For example, under the fragmented system excessive claims for physician time can be spread across patients with several different insurance providers. However, acknowledging that improvements have been made in fraud detection since Taiwan's transition, we conservatively assume that the improved fraud detection would garner savings amounting to half that observed in Taiwan, corresponding to 4% of total health-care expenditure."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

> People who have a proclivity to go to the doctor too much will go even more when its 'free'. Younger people who eschew doctors because it interferes with their current lifestyle will feel even safer continuing bad health habits because free care will be there for them later in life.

Is this a significant problem in countries with single-payer systems?

> Why should I subsidize other people's bad decision making?

You already are? That's how health insurance works. What this study is showing is that you'll have to subsidize other people less, because the whole system will be less expensive.

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#73
post #41

I am sure, on paper, it is a brilliant plan. Unfortunately, reality and human behavior almost never follow the plan. Is waste, fraud, and abuse taken into account at all in this study? What about the inevitable changes to consumers' motivation, behavior, and decision making around healthcare? It will change drastically as the cost of their care is even further removed from them than it is now. People who have a procl…

Let's take smoking as an example. You think there are people out there who will smoke, knowing that it causes lung cancer, because they figure government will pick up the tab for the chemo? Bizarre, but ok, if so, why doesn't having insurance give them the same incentive?

My wife's aunt has been on disability for years because she hurt her back and refuses to quit smoking. The doctors said the smoking is preventing her back from healing correctly, and 3 back surgeries later, she still hasn't quit. Because she's poor and on disability, she doesn't have to pay for any of it, and is pefectly content sitting in her trailer watching TV and taking pain killers as her health deteriorates.

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#74
post #9
post #2

Is this Bernie's plan? I know there are subtle but important differences between all the different varieties of "universal healthcare" that exist in the world. The Twitter account @BadEconTakes enumerated something about this in a recent post: https://twitter.com/BadEconTakes/status/1228143455399858176/... Excuse their obvious bias against it; I wonder what the difference in expected savings (money + lives) might be…

The fundamental challenge of any universal health care system is that to cut our spending on health care to the level of other western industrialized countries will take $1 Trillion of annual revenue out of the existing system. There's going to be a lot of disruption and people who need new jobs when that revenue goes to other things in our economy.

> There's going to be a lot of disruption and people who need new jobs when that revenue goes to other things in our economy.

From the paper: "Improvements in system efficiency, such as reductions in billing tasks, will involve a contraction of the workforce. Although the country will benefit from lower costs, 936 000 administrative positions and 746 600 positions in the health-care insurance industry are estimated to become redundant. However, detailed transition plans have suggested either funding for early retirement options, extensive severance, retraining programmes, and relocation expenses for all workers in these sectors. Implementation of such a plan is estimated to cost $61·5 billion annually over 2 years, a sum which would be recouped within the first year by the health-care savings estimated here."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#75

I am sure, on paper, it is a brilliant plan. Unfortunately, reality and human behavior almost never follow the plan. Is waste, fraud, and abuse taken into account at all in this study? What about the inevitable changes to consumers' motivation, behavior, and decision making around healthcare? It will change drastically as the cost of their care is even further removed from them than it is now. People who have a procl…

Somehow, the current US health system is the most expensive on the planet [0], for outcomes that aren't better (and in some cases worse) than the rest of the developed world. Have you considered the possibility of waste, fraud, and abuse being high in the present system?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_hea...

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#76

What I don't get is how do 37 million Americans not have health insurance when the ACA was suppose to fix that issue? All of the plans are adjusted based on your income level and you get a tax credit if you are low income. If you are very poor then you get free healthcare....

Tax credits don't help people who are struggling to pay day to day bills. What good is a tax credit they'll receive up to a year later? When your horizon is 2 weeks, you're going to prioritize food & accommodation before a health insurance plan.

The tax credit can be paid in advance directly to the insurance company on your behalf [0]. Basically, the federal government pays for your insurance.

[0] https://www.irs.gov/affordable-care-act/individuals-and-fami...

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#77
post #19
post #7

In the study, nearly all the computed savings comes from two sources. 1. Decrease in pharmaceutical costs as a result of better bargaining power. 2. Decrease in administrative overhead, calculated by extrapolating the overhead in medicare to the entire US healthcare economy. I don't have an informed opinion on either of these estimates, but my intuition is that #1 seems reasonable while #2 seems unlikely. The justifi…

I worked in the EMR software industry and have certifications that involve hospital & lab billing, among others. I've been on site with healthcare providers, and there are entire buildings full of people whose job it is just to code and scrub claims, and cover disputes/negotiations with private insurance providers. Consumers do not see it because it's typically off-site from the main hospital care facilities, but bel…

Medicare billing isn’t any different, it’s just a different payer.

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#78
post #22

Fundamentally, it is disgusting we are forced by government to buy insurance products (e.g., car, health) provided by for-profit companies; however, I do not support universal healthcare either. The government has zero ability to control its expenditure, because the electorate vote themselves benefits. The long-term financial incentives to maintain a functioning society are all broken because of the misaligned short-…

> The government has zero ability to control its expenditure, because the electorate vote themselves benefits. Could you give me some examples of this? Living in a nation with universal healthcare, I've never seen this.

What else would you call students voting for loan forgiveness? Point blank the candidate is effectively saying, "we will give you $xx,xxx" in the form of loan forgiveness. It is the same for healthcare. This is a literal voting for benefits; and, this creates perverse incentives for the electorate to vote for whomever will "pay them" the most for their vote. Candidates are simply buying votes by offering free stuff with taxpayer monies. It is completely broken at this point with one candidate trying to out-give the next.

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#79
I'm paying nearly 20k (parents+child) on insurance I don't have time to use (and luckily no serious need) and once my son went to see his pediatrician and our 'private' insurance company (that i'm not going to name) sent us bill of $500, for a check-up. We disputed the charge with the insurance and they agreed to wave the payment next month. Next month comes and guess what? The same letter comes in mail. We disputed it again and again the month after when the bill was sent to us the third time. This is been happening for 6 months and don't take it seriously anymore, I don't have time to waste. I realize that a lot of money goes to waste on a system that is not working even if you're paying a lot. It is utterly broken. Downright revolting. And on top of it I get a better deal if I use no insurance at all for prescriptions. Then what am I paying for? Emergencies? I am paying nearly 20k a year for possible emergencies? It's become so complicated that nothing can be reasoned about it, this is a monster that has to be killed with fire then drowned in deep waters.

Re: Single-payer healthcare would save $450B and 68k lives a year: study

#80

The net savings would be $450B, but the total cost would still be in the 10s of trillions of dollars (Edit: 30-50 over 10 years), bigger than all of our federal spending combined. It's one thing to have as an objective, and another as a plan for getting there. The proposal they cite would make federal healthcare expenditures 69%(!!!) of the GDP (Edit: total federal expenditures). It's simply not realistic to convert…

"eliminate copays and deductibles, something no other universal healthcare system has done."

Scottish NHS has no deductibles or copays in general, dentist has an fee for some people though. English system has a flat prescription fee of £9 or so for a minority of the population up to £100ish a year. It's very close to free at the point of use, however.

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