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Suspicious Discontinuities

danluu.com

21–30 of 307 posts

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#21

> One reason people were looking for ways to lose money was that, in the U.S., there's a hard income cutoff for a health insurance subsidy at $48,560 for individuals (higher for larger households; $100,400 for a family of four). There are a number of factors that can cause the details to vary (age, location, household size, type of plan), but across all circumstances, it wouldn't have been uncommon for an individual…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_trap

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#22

> One reason people were looking for ways to lose money was that, in the U.S., there's a hard income cutoff for a health insurance subsidy at $48,560 for individuals (higher for larger households; $100,400 for a family of four). There are a number of factors that can cause the details to vary (age, location, household size, type of plan), but across all circumstances, it wouldn't have been uncommon for an individual…

Too many smart people in the US are working to invent things like the 'Double Irish with a Dutch Sandwich'[1] rather than fixings these massive equity and fairness problems at the bottom end.

1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-irish-with-a-dut...

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#23
post #12

OKCupid has a graph of reported height for men[0]. It's both shifted 2 inches to the right of average, but also slightly flattened at the normal peak of 5'10". It's not nearly as pronounced as the graphs in this post, but it's still notable. [0] https://theblog.okcupid.com/the-big-lies-people-tell-in-onli...

It would be interesting to see if the discontinuity was 6ft in the imperial units countries vs 180cm in SI countries.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#24
post #12

OKCupid has a graph of reported height for men[0]. It's both shifted 2 inches to the right of average, but also slightly flattened at the normal peak of 5'10". It's not nearly as pronounced as the graphs in this post, but it's still notable. [0] https://theblog.okcupid.com/the-big-lies-people-tell-in-onli...

Average height changes significantly depending upon your age cohort.

If few older people sign up to OKCupid, that would be a sample bias and the average height would be noticeable higher.

Edit: “Adjusting for age, adults ages 18-74 years with an annual income of $15,000 and over were observed to be 1.2 inches taller than those with an annual income under $4,000”, amongst other serious biases (whiteness, education) that affect average height the would be expected to be in OKCupid sample. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_11/sr11_224.pdf

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#25
post #12

OKCupid has a graph of reported height for men[0]. It's both shifted 2 inches to the right of average, but also slightly flattened at the normal peak of 5'10". It's not nearly as pronounced as the graphs in this post, but it's still notable. [0] https://theblog.okcupid.com/the-big-lies-people-tell-in-onli...

Slightly off-topic but this reminded me of what is perhaps their most depressing pair of graphs.

Look at "A woman's age vs. the age of the men sho look best to her" https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/1439100617...

and then compare that with "A man's age vs. the age of the women who look best to him" https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/1439100617...

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#26

> One reason people were looking for ways to lose money was that, in the U.S., there's a hard income cutoff for a health insurance subsidy at $48,560 for individuals (higher for larger households; $100,400 for a family of four). There are a number of factors that can cause the details to vary (age, location, household size, type of plan), but across all circumstances, it wouldn't have been uncommon for an individual…

There are 0 Congresspeople that are near the threshold, which could be related..

Congress seems to focus on ensuring wealthy citizens and corporations gain more wealth, and not making things fair for everyone else.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#27
post #17
post #12

OKCupid has a graph of reported height for men[0]. It's both shifted 2 inches to the right of average, but also slightly flattened at the normal peak of 5'10". It's not nearly as pronounced as the graphs in this post, but it's still notable. [0] https://theblog.okcupid.com/the-big-lies-people-tell-in-onli...

Both men and women showed height above the national average. As a result I am more inclined to believe that there is selection bias in OKCupid audience (more white people, less minorities) than that there is such widespread deception going on.

Exactly. Not to mention short people may have opted out of dating because they lack a perceived fitness for dating.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#28
post #12

OKCupid has a graph of reported height for men[0]. It's both shifted 2 inches to the right of average, but also slightly flattened at the normal peak of 5'10". It's not nearly as pronounced as the graphs in this post, but it's still notable. [0] https://theblog.okcupid.com/the-big-lies-people-tell-in-onli...

Slightly off-topic but this reminded me of what is perhaps their most depressing pair of graphs. Look at "A woman's age vs. the age of the men sho look best to her" https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/1439100617... and then compare that with "A man's age vs. the age of the women who look best to him" https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/1439100617...

Given that magazines and movies are full of young women pretending to be old (skin care products especially) is this any surprise?

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#29
post #3
post #2

The youth sports discontinuity was a problem for me when I became old enough to play little league, but was exploited by me when I should have moved on to Teener League. I was born on the cut-off date for Little League, so I was the youngest player on the team my first year (and the youngest for my grade the other years.) Do to ambiguity in how the cut-off date wording was written, I ended up (legally) playing a four…

I was always small until about age 16, and I always sucked at sports and never really got into them - partly as a result. I wonder if we shouldn't group kids by size for sporting activities instead of by age. There's a famous statistic in Canada that NHL players are much more likely to be born in January and February than September-December. The reason being is they were nearly a year older than other kids they were…

> The reason being is they were nearly a year older than other kids they were paired with.

I’m amused that the kids who did worse are absolutely necessary for the kids who do better. They end up getting wasted by the process, demotivated, but they are a necessary brick to step upon.

It’s the same consideration when talking about male suicide. Are they necessary for others to feel good? We could solve a good part of it as a society, but at the expense of providing an environment where males fail less, have a better social net, receive more love, and are less pushed to succeed in their career to be recognized. So we could solve it, but it may cost our economic growth. Is that why male suicide isn’t getting solved? It’s getting less funding than even dog shelters, and less attention than much smaller problems.

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