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The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

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Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#81
post #80
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a reasonable question to ask, although it's also a terribly wrong assumption. First the ship has already sailed for most of Asia, where the fertility rate is already below 2 or near 2, and the billions extra are just from people getting older. China's population for instance is already expected to decrease from 2030-2035. Asking from these countries to reduce their population is equivalent to asking them to r…

Of course it is the right question to ask. If 100 million people fly and contribute 2.5% of emissions, and 7 billion people contribute 25% of the omissions are using coal generated electricity, which probably should you solve?

1) This is a false dichotomy. We need to reach net zero by 2050 to keep warming below 2 degrees (if we're lucky), therefore we need to solve both.

2) The 100 million people who fly have the most concentrated wealth and therefore have more leeway to implement alternatives to flying (high-speed rail for flights within the US for example).

3) You could also imagine the 100 million people investing to build new low-carbon electricity generation infrastructures in developing countries via a carbon tax on their flight ticket. Of course, they could donate directly as well, either solution is fine. That was actually the spirit of the Paris agreement, which Trump walked out of. Since the 100 million people who fly actively refuse to let go of their wealth, alternative options such as 2) are being considered, even though they might have lower impact (since they affect on the 2.5% of GHG emissions instead of the 25% of GHG emissions).

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#82
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory we could use renewable energy sources to manufacture synthetic jet fuel in a carbon neutral loop. It would be more expensive, but sustainable. Hopefully costs will come down enough to make this economically viable.

The problem is that we are fighting the laws of thermodynamics. Any jet engine is based on the rapid expansion of a gas. Any such expansion is based on generating heat. We do know many chemical reactions that create heat. But none of them can do so as efficiently as high density carbon based fuels. And those that do come close still emit noxious molecules into the atmosphere. At it's core, high density carbon - fossi…

None of that is relevant to my comment. Sustainable power sources can be used to manufacture carbon neutral jet fuel. This has already been tested.

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#83
post #81
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it is the right question to ask. If 100 million people fly and contribute 2.5% of emissions, and 7 billion people contribute 25% of the omissions are using coal generated electricity, which probably should you solve?

1) This is a false dichotomy. We need to reach net zero by 2050 to keep warming below 2 degrees (if we're lucky), therefore we need to solve both. 2) The 100 million people who fly have the most concentrated wealth and therefore have more leeway to implement alternatives to flying (high-speed rail for flights within the US for example). 3) You could also imagine the 100 million people investing to build new low-carbo…

If we had addressed the coal problem 2 decades ago, our net zero goal would have been 2060 or 2070?

Ignoring the coal problem, and actually greatly increasing the coal usage in the past 20 years, has pushed us into a corner where we need miracles. Now "everything" must be addressed!

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#85
post #60
post #42

The only way this thing could be honestly sustainable would be if it were hydrogen-powered. That might also be a prerequisite for profitability. But the airframe would need to be quite different from current designs because hydrogen tankage needs a lot more room than kerosene fuel would. Extra space on an aircraft is fairly cheap to provide. What is difficult is more weight, including extra fuel needed to get enough…

I'm sceptical. You'd need a lot of insulation and possibly refrigeration to prevent excessive boil off on long flights, adding weight. Also you'd want the tanks to be, if not spherical, at least cylindrical. Where would you put them? Rockets make do with minimal insulation since they can top off the tanks just before liftoff and the flight itself takes only minutes. And then there's also the thing that the climate fo…

Practical aerogel production makes a huge difference in insulation effectiveness.

Lifting body designs provide plenty of interior room for tankage.

Spherical/cylindrical tankage is needed only to contain high pressure, but we don't need to contain pressure.

The greater energy density of hydrogen means much less fuel burnt at altitude, vs. diesel. Water vapor is a grrenhouse gas, but condensed into clouds they reflect sunlight before it gets converted to IR. Not so easy to know the net effect, but the lifetime of water vapor is much less than CO2. Visible contrails suggest that condensation is preferred.

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#86
post #42

The only way this thing could be honestly sustainable would be if it were hydrogen-powered. That might also be a prerequisite for profitability. But the airframe would need to be quite different from current designs because hydrogen tankage needs a lot more room than kerosene fuel would. Extra space on an aircraft is fairly cheap to provide. What is difficult is more weight, including extra fuel needed to get enough…

Methane is a more than viable alternative and there are a few others. Of course for both we'd need infrastructure to generate it from renewable energy (as opposed to extracting using or extracting hydrogen from natural gas). In terms of energy density, methane is good enough for space flight. E.g. the spaceX raptor engines burn methane. The long term plan for SpaceX is to use renewable energy to generate methane; whi…

45-minute hops, I would hope.

But, yes, the upside is tremendous. Aviation has long been innovation-averse, but that could change any time.

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#87
post #26

In my opinion it is disingenuous to call any supersonic aircraft sustainable. Independently of any clever aerodynamic design to moderate the drag coefficient, aerodynamic drag always increases like the velocity squared. Doubling the speed will mean applying 4x the force for 1/2 the time, so all propulsive efficiencies being equal, you will expend twice the fuel to go the same distance - at an absolute minimum. In rea…

Nope, air transportation is not a major contributor to CO2. There are over 100,000 flights daily. They account for about 2.5% of CO2 emissions yearly. You know what is? Coal power plants that generate electricity. Maybe we should focus on electricity generation from coal. I’m a little surprised that more hasn’t been done. https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants 13 years ago Google attempted their…

Are there any studies comparing the impact of burning fuel at sea level VS at cruising altitude?

Also, it's not all about co2. I'm quite sure planes release a lot of other nasty things.

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#88
post #42

The only way this thing could be honestly sustainable would be if it were hydrogen-powered. That might also be a prerequisite for profitability. But the airframe would need to be quite different from current designs because hydrogen tankage needs a lot more room than kerosene fuel would. Extra space on an aircraft is fairly cheap to provide. What is difficult is more weight, including extra fuel needed to get enough…

Methane is a more than viable alternative and there are a few others. Of course for both we'd need infrastructure to generate it from renewable energy (as opposed to extracting using or extracting hydrogen from natural gas). In terms of energy density, methane is good enough for space flight. E.g. the spaceX raptor engines burn methane. The long term plan for SpaceX is to use renewable energy to generate methane; whi…

> Methane is a more than viable alternative

Is it?

https://www.sightline.org/2019/02/12/methane-climate-change-...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191216140715.h...

https://www.livescience.com/52715-natural-gas-not-as-clean-a...

We're already coming to the conclusion that electric cars aren't that clean so when I hear about carbon neutral supersonic planes I kind of feel like I'm in a bad dream.

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#89
post #58
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common misconception. Flying at higher altitudes doesn't mean just lower air resistance; it means lower lift as well. As a result you have to fly faster for compensating lower air density. If you do the math, you realize the overall effect would be higher energy consumption.

Come again? The drag is proportional to the lift, but if you’re flying higher, and thus faster, to get the same lift, you’re getting to your destination faster.

What you're missing is the effect of speed and altitude on engine performance. Please take a look at this (pdf):

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.167...

Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet

#90
post #85
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sceptical. You'd need a lot of insulation and possibly refrigeration to prevent excessive boil off on long flights, adding weight. Also you'd want the tanks to be, if not spherical, at least cylindrical. Where would you put them? Rockets make do with minimal insulation since they can top off the tanks just before liftoff and the flight itself takes only minutes. And then there's also the thing that the climate fo…

Practical aerogel production makes a huge difference in insulation effectiveness. Lifting body designs provide plenty of interior room for tankage. Spherical/cylindrical tankage is needed only to contain high pressure, but we don't need to contain pressure. The greater energy density of hydrogen means much less fuel burnt at altitude, vs. diesel. Water vapor is a grrenhouse gas, but condensed into clouds they reflect…

> Spherical/cylindrical tankage is needed only to contain high pressure, but we don't need to contain pressure.

You want the minimum surface area to volume, to minimize heat losses (and minimize the surface area that has to be insulated when weight matters such as in an aircraft). Spherical being the optimum, but obviously unpractical. If you look at tanks in current aircraft, typically in wings, they have huge surface area vs volume.

Lifting body might be better, I'm not sure.

> Not so easy to know the net effect

Luckily we have researchers who have dedicated years, if not decades, to studying this exact problem. Still, not an easy problem, surely. Some quick searching turns up this overview: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-challenge-tackling-avi... (and it seems I was wrong, it's not water vapor that is the major factor)

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