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Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

cassandracapital.net

11–20 of 34 posts

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#11
post #8
post #6

I'm curious about a rather immaterial point in the corona virus reporting: Why does everyone discuss 'mainland China'? What are they trying to clarify by putting that 'mainland' word in? It surely can't be Taiwan, since these are Western articles, whose audience probably won't confuse the two. So is it about Hong Kong? That doesn't make much sense either, since most of Hong Kong is on the mainland. And yet, while the…

Mainland China is PRC.

So is Hainan!

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#12
post #6

I'm curious about a rather immaterial point in the corona virus reporting: Why does everyone discuss 'mainland China'? What are they trying to clarify by putting that 'mainland' word in? It surely can't be Taiwan, since these are Western articles, whose audience probably won't confuse the two. So is it about Hong Kong? That doesn't make much sense either, since most of Hong Kong is on the mainland. And yet, while the…

'Mainland China' designates a geopolitical area, not a geographical one. It means 'the territory directly controlled by the government of the PRC'. It excludes Taiwan (obviously), Hong Kong, and Macau, but not Hainan.

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#15

This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…

https://www.cassandracapital.net/blog

Oh, but the author's other content inspires so much faith!

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#16

This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…

i agree, complete garbage.

what is worrying is that the percentage of 'serious/critical' cases seems to be stable at 20%. Regardless of fatality rate, if this holds, and the virus becomes pandemic it will impose a significant burden on health systems.

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So is Hainan!

Then why are you wondering why it is included? Mainland in this case is a geopolitical term.

Because it makes no sense? For all the uses of 'mainland China', it would be simpler to just say 'China', with no loss of clarity. Adding pointless words just for the sake of it, especially when it seems that the author(s) don't mean what the word says, is bad writing.

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#18

This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…

> The virus has been in the wild in a number of countries outside China (Singapore, Japan, Thailand, etc), yet to date local transmission has petered out and there's no sign of massive outbreaks happening. This argues for a much lower R0...

While I agree with your other points, the idea that transmission in Japan is petering out is wildly optimistic and not what epidemiologists in Japan are saying. Unfortunately, you can couple that with the possibility of transmission in states where the medical infrastructure is especially weak (in Africa, for example, where millions of Chinese people work).

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#19

This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…

i agree, complete garbage. what is worrying is that the percentage of 'serious/critical' cases seems to be stable at 20%. Regardless of fatality rate, if this holds, and the virus becomes pandemic it will impose a significant burden on health systems.

IIRC, the vast majority of earlier cases were people with a previous health condition. Does anyone know if there are data sources where one could look at these figures?

Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened

#20

This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…

> I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader.

This CoVid19 outbreak in the age of social media has caused too many wanna-be epidemiologists to post their unfiltered, unscientific opinions and present them as facts. How can we ever get reliable information from that?

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