Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
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Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
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Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#2I enjoyed the clear and fact based presentation, with different scenarios.
I am bit shocked to learn that that the R0 of the Spanish flu was only around 2 though.
Regarding the number of case outside of China, raising exponentially, at least half of them, 454 as of today are onboard of the Diamond Princess. I am not sure if this is good or bad but surely a cruise ship is a bit peculiar situation, and maybe you cannot extrapolate too much based on that .
On the other hand, it also means that if a "dense" community is hit where people are living closely, it can have a bad outcome as well.
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#3This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws:
* At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative).
* It is well known that China is undercounting cases, not because of some deep CCP conspiracy, but because Wuhan/Hubei's health system is so overloaded that only the sickest cases are hospitalized, much less tested.
* This also skews death rates very high, because mild cases are not detected and counted at all. This is also clear from the divergence in death rates in Hubei (2.x%) and outside Hubei (under 0.5%, and there's undercounting happening here too).
* The virus has been in the wild in a number of countries outside China (Singapore, Japan, Thailand, etc), yet to date local transmission has petered out and there's no sign of massive outbreaks happening. This argues for a much lower R0, and/or that there's something specific to Wuhan that favors the virus, with cold, dry winter air and heavy air pollution (and the accompanying chronic lung damage) cited as possible factors.
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#4This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…
> You can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative).
There are limitations with this method, but I think it’s the best possible at the time. What method do you think is better?
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#5Why does the article finish in the middle of a sentence?
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#6I'm curious about a rather immaterial point in the corona virus reporting: Why does everyone discuss 'mainland China'? What are they trying to clarify by putting that 'mainland' word in?
It surely can't be Taiwan, since these are Western articles, whose audience probably won't confuse the two. So is it about Hong Kong? That doesn't make much sense either, since most of Hong Kong is on the mainland.
And yet, while these reports all talk about mainland China, they still include Hainan (a large island off the south coast of China). In fact this article has it highlighted in its map as being an area under lockdown. And yet Hainan is quite obviously not a part of the mainland.
So why do writers keep referring to 'mainland' China?
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#7This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…
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Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#8I'm curious about a rather immaterial point in the corona virus reporting: Why does everyone discuss 'mainland China'? What are they trying to clarify by putting that 'mainland' word in? It surely can't be Taiwan, since these are Western articles, whose audience probably won't confuse the two. So is it about Hong Kong? That doesn't make much sense either, since most of Hong Kong is on the mainland. And yet, while the…
Mainland China is PRC.
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#9This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…
> You can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). There are limitations with this method, but I think it’s the best possible at the time. What method do you think is better?
You could count the number of deaths by date 'n', compared to the number of recoveries by date 'n+14', say, picking a date related to the average recovery time?
Re: Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened
#10This article is junk, and I don't understand why we're accepting medical analysis from a random trader. A few of the more obvious flaws: * At this point in the epidemic you can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). * It is well known that China i…
> You can't compute fatality rates simply by deaths/recoveries, because recoveries lag deaths by several weeks (once you're dead you're dead, but if you survive it takes a few weeks to recover and start testing negative). There are limitations with this method, but I think it’s the best possible at the time. What method do you think is better?
Count deaths & recoveries a few weeks in for cohorts that showed first symptoms on the same days. But data collection for this is hard and it takes a while too.