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Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#211

Post by andrewtbham »

SEJeff wrote: post #124
KaiserPro wrote: post #48

This is grand, apart from the build quality of the mechanics is ~10 years behind. Go to a tesla showroom, Look at the doors of the model three. Note that they don't line up. Look at the paint job, notice that there are bumps and chips, especailly on the edges of the doors. This is on a _demo_ car, stuck in a showroom. these should be perfect. Even a budget Kia has better build quality than this. Its not the isolated…

A lot of the tech in the Tesla vehicles is truly innovative. Look at the seemingly simple cooling bottle they use, which is the best in the entire automotive industry (and patented by them): https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-e... I keep hearing people talk about fit and finish problems with Tesla vehicles, but I simply don't see it. I was so paranoid when I took delivery of mine that I litera…

Even Bob Lutz thinks Tesla has good fit and finish now.

"But, when next to the car, I was stunned. Not only was the paint without any discernible flaw, but the various panels formed a body of precision that was beyond reproach. Gaps from hood to fenders, doors to frame, and all the others appeared to be perfectly even, equal side-to-side, and completely parallel. Gaps of 3.5 to 4.5mm are considered word-class. This Model 3 measured up."

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/a28008116/tesla-model-...

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#212

Post by nickik »

tim333 wrote: post #75

They didn't really need to tear down a model 3 to see the HW3 computer, they could have just watched last years Tesla presentation. Also I don't know how they calculate 6 years - Nvidia will probably have something comparable they can buy within a year or so.

Tesla didn't do this to do one chip, they did it to have the need knowledge to build a new one every year. And not a generic one but a very specific one to their need.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#213

Post by SEJeff »

claudeganon wrote: post #175
SEJeff wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of this very moment, the market caps of both are as follows: Toyota: 228.41 Billion Tesla: 144.2 Billion That's time and a half, but not more than twice. I find it stretching credibility to think Toyota could afford to buy a company with such a high market cap knowing the stock would rocket up on any rumor of an acquisition.

That Tesla’s market cap is anywhere close to Toyota’s should give you pause, given the difference in scale and market penetration of the two companies. Look, I’m a firm believer in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent” and especially in our post-2008, QE money printing, Saudi sovereign wealth fund, unmoored-from-reality present. So honestly, who knows how it will all pan out. Maybe we no…

I'm entirely with you on Tesla's market cap defying reality, but the idea that Toyota is going to buy a company with a market cap that is 75% of its own market cap it utterly ridiculous.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#214

Post by SEJeff »

smileysteve wrote: post #193
SEJeff wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Maxwell Technologies battery technology is allegedly 10x cheaper to manufacture due to no oven or liquids and as a result, and also lighter. Elon says the "holy grail" of batteries is being able to develop an automotive grade battery at <= $100/kWh. The Maxwell tech looks to be below that, but we'll find out specifics on the upcoming Battery Investor day.

Just the super capacitor allows for much better durability of all battery technology, especially in normal driving conditions.

Maxwell made ultracapacitors not supercapacitors. Elon has stated that those weren't useful at all for Tesla, but their dry battery electrode manufacturing process stands to be the holy grail. This is what I was referring to.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#215

Post by SEJeff »

AndrewDucker wrote: post #176
SEJeff wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Maxwell Technologies battery technology is allegedly 10x cheaper to manufacture due to no oven or liquids and as a result, and also lighter. Elon says the "holy grail" of batteries is being able to develop an automotive grade battery at <= $100/kWh. The Maxwell tech looks to be below that, but we'll find out specifics on the upcoming Battery Investor day.

Fingers crossed that the rumours are accurate. There are a lot of "coming soon" battery improvements that aren't nearly as impressive when (if) they finally arrive. Be lovely for one to actually live up to them.

For the Tesla Semi and Cybertruck to not be huge loss leaders for Tesla, they have to have made a fundamental breakthrough in battery cost. I'm anxious to see what they come up with.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#216

Post by michaelt »

jays wrote: post #139
KaiserPro wrote: post #48

This is grand, apart from the build quality of the mechanics is ~10 years behind. Go to a tesla showroom, Look at the doors of the model three. Note that they don't line up. Look at the paint job, notice that there are bumps and chips, especailly on the edges of the doors. This is on a _demo_ car, stuck in a showroom. these should be perfect. Even a budget Kia has better build quality than this. Its not the isolated…

I think you’re missing the point of what consumers find valuable about Tesla cars. It’s not the body or fancy interiors. The tech is what people want and because of that, cosmetic issues is an ok tradeoff. Of course, as other companies catch up on the Tech side, they’ll need to fix those issues, but they’ve got time.

It's true that people who have brought Teslas have accepted Tesla's current build quality. But it's the people who haven't brought Teslas where the company's growth will come from!

The worry with things like gaps between panels isn't just cosmetic - it's that the process control to achieve "reliably waterproof even after 15 years" is harder than "visibly perfect"

There was a time when a sunroof was a liability on a car as they so often developed leaks. People who can remember this time aren't looking to return to it :)

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#217

Post by perl4ever »

ameister14 wrote: post #204
rthomas6 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting the 33k number? The model 3 is more like 40k base price.

in the article: "This is the takeaway from Nikkei Business Publications' teardown of the Model 3, the most affordable car in the U.S. automaker's all-electric lineup, starting at about $33,000."

Looking at very low mileage 2019 Teslas for sale on Autotrader, in the $40-50K range is about right. The cheapest used 2019 model 3 in the whole US is more than $33K. And the only 2020 examples are much more expensive.

You can argue forever about technicalities, but $33K is not an apples-to-apples comparison. In fact, I would say if you are comparing brand new 2020 cars, $50K+ for the model 3 is more realistic, and you should take into account the discounts other cars have.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#218

Post by Ambele »

BurningFrog wrote: post #59
bovermyer wrote: post #24

Note that the "we cannot do it" quote is not referring to the technology itself, but rather to the fact that to adopt Tesla's pattern, the legacy auto companies would need to ditch their supply chains. That's not something they can do without pissing off a lot of people.

I think they could easily piss off a lot of people, if it was important for the company. What they can't do is become another kind of organization. If new nimble competitors working in a new way appear, old companies, with vastly more money but a settled bureaucracy, just slowly die, rather than adapt.

They're not going to want to piss people off because it's viewed as an inherently destructive act. Instead they'd look for more positive resolutions. I can only speak for one Big Japanese Car Company having worked in their corporate office in the decision-making department.

- They'll use Microsoft Sharepoint and Microsoft OneDrive for file and document management, not because they're better products but because Microsoft wishes that they don't use a competitor's products and Big Japanese Car Co respects the desires of their partners.

- After a demo between a new company with superior in-car tech and an old partner with inferior in-car tech, BJCC chooses the old in-car tech because once you're a partner with BJCC, BJCC takes care of you through the good and the bad.

- If you direct a meeting, whether small or large and you say something incorrect, the one person in the crowd that noticed your mistake won't say anything and will actually nod their head in agreement and respect. This is due to the saving-face aspect of the culture.

- Bringing others on board with a decision when you don't have access to the primary data or analytics is much easier when it involves copying a competitor. It also diffuses responsibility if things go south. Saying we did secret teardowns of a Tesla model 3s and are basing our design decisions off these teardowns means you can say it was Tesla's decision, not "my" decision.

On the other hand, BJCC has historically cared a lot more about not pissing off car owners by making more reliable vehicles at fair prices that are less likely to break down. For that reason, at the end of the day, I buy a BJCC car.

It's the old argument of individualism vs. collectivism. The right balance is probably some amount of both.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#219

Post by usrusr »

technofiend wrote: post #70
swiley wrote: post #12

6 years ahead electronics here means AI ASICs. I thought that was weird, I know Toyota cars have radar and I’m not sure about Teslas. IMO as an armchair observer the sensor array is far more interesting than any of this. Personally, if I were to buy another car (and hopefully I don’t have to any time soon) I’d want the processing electronics to be off the shelf not weird custom stuff that’s going to have all kinds of…

After Tesla's recent secondary offering perhaps they'll hire some experts away from the big automakers and build a new line to automaker standards. Teslas built to Japanese or European fit and finish standards with their already ahead and ever improving electronics would (IMHO) be unbeatable.

This has already happened at least once, I wouldn't expect revolutionary change from a repetition.

Re: Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

#220

Post by H8crilA »

Vesuvium wrote: post #118
rebelde wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, the article gives numbers! Tesla: $158/kWh Competitors: "more than" $200/kWh Model 3 SR+ has a 54 kWh battery. Tesla advantage = (200 - 158) * 54 = $2268 per car. Yes, an advantage today, but not too bad.

Sounds like a lot of money for such a competitive market

Yeah it is a lot for this market. VW makes around €500 per car, on average.

But even that kind of a margin benefit may not justify the current valuation...

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