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Don’t stage off Starship

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

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Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#51
post #37
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even at (way) sub-light speeds, it's probably possible. Whether it's automated self-replicating ships (possibly carrying humans as gene sequences), or generation ships (seems pretty hellish!), a number of people have estimated mathematically that it's doable. Estimates vary wildly, of course, as there are many unknowns, but basically exponential growth gets unintuitively fast. Some links (there are many more pages to…

This is not "travelling" any more. This is sending spores hoping they will take root somewhere, but they will be forever disconnected from us, in space and, more importantly, in time . What's this mania you have of disseminating yourself? Even if you build ships that carry human genes sequences and send them on a million years trip, who is going to benefit? The sequences you sent?

> What's this mania you have of disseminating yourself?

I’m told there was a book on this exact topic. I’ve never read it, because other people tell me it’s now wildly out of date.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Selfish_Gene

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buddy, we're gonna dysonsphere every sun in the galaxy. Mars isn't arrogant, it's just that we have to learn to crawl before we start running.

Love the optimism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

If we assume a great filter exists and that we haven't passed it already, it follows that we should be concerned about events that could wipe out humanity (or human civilisation). Establishing at least one self-sustaining human colony outside earth, preferably followed by one outside the solar system, drastically lowers the number of possible doomsday scenarios. Everything from asteroid impacts to thermonuclear war and biological warfare to pandemics becomes much less likely to wipe us out if we live on more than one planet. The independence wars of those colonies might become brutal, but the small risk from interplanetary warfare is dwarfed by all the scenarios that are solved by inhabiting more than one planet.

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#53
Personally I think it'd be interesting to compare the expected price/weight to how much it cost to cross the Atlantic back in the 1600s. Does anyone happen to have any good references for goods/people crossing back then?

For instance, one person writes on Quora[0] that between 1600 and 1800 one could cross the Atlantic from Europe by becoming an indentured servant, working 4-7 years for someone. By looking at the average US income, this corresponds to roughly $2-300,000 per one-way "ticket".

This is somewhat comparable to Musk's aspirational price for a one-way ticket to Mars, no?

On another note, I'm sure there were discussions back then about why bother to spend months crossing the Atlantic..!

[0] https://www.quora.com/How-much-did-it-cost-in-today%E2%80%99...

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#54

Two aspects in favor of mini-starships 1. economies of scale: if you manufacture 12 engines smaller by a factor of 10, the total manufacturing cost is not going to be 20% higher, but most likely 2-3 times lower. 2. engineering knowledge: more smaller engines means more engineers. Some of whom would leave to start their own startups, or to join Blue Origin, or Skunkworks, or some other aerospace company. That's not ne…

Yeah, right, it must be a child game to scale by an order of magnitude the only full flow engine that ever flew in Human history...

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#55

Im no less a science fiction fan than the next person but the whole “colonize Mars” thing is stupid and wasteful and arrogant and really pounds the message that billionaires are deeply deeply out of touch with the rest of society. Not only will colonizing Mars never work, there’s no reason at all to want to. What a dead, barren place. And in the meantime back down to earth people are really starting to care about ine…

First of all, the SpaceX plans on colonizing Mars are not built onto the asumption, that the project is funded by the taxpayer, that is, draining the resources of a nation. They plan to fund the project by the money they are making, like for example enabling global internet access via Starlink. So even if SpaceX never makes it to Mark, it would be a benefit. And of course, reaching Mars would indeed have many benefits for humankind. First, there is science of course. Why are people living at the south pole, there are nicer places on Earth? Science.

Then there is the huge gain in perspective. Even if the direct utility of all the space missions might not be large, looking onto our planet has given us a clear perspective. That we shouldn't waste this precious place.

Finally, not at least trying to go to Mars and beyond would have a negative impact on the long-time development of the species. We either eventually leave this planet or eventually will be consumed by the expanding sun. Sure, there is plenty of time till then and I hope there are others why try to make humankind eventually an interstellar species. But if we don't even try, because it is "stupid and wasteful", we already have lost.

And I am sure, even if the colony on Mars might not do anything useful in the short term, just having space launch capability available as the article describes, will find many other beneficial uses.

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#56
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea of colonizing Mars only makes sense in the head of a teenager who read to much bad sf. Our whole idea of spaceships crossing empty space and founding colonies on other planets is just a projection on the past successes of the age of discoveries, when actual ships crossed the oceans and reached new continents. But those continents were perfectly habitable, with tons of resources, plants and animals th…

Musk isn't an engineer.

Just listen to 15 minutes him answering questions in any but the most mainstream (thus: time-limited, chunked into 10-seconds slots) channel and you will see that he has most accurate technical information and numbers and tradeoffs and materials etc. in his head than most engineers with 10 year experience. Say what you want about the stock price, about whether you agree with his policies, about his personality, but if you say something so blatantly obviously wrong as "he is not an engineer", it just tells everyone that you haven't done even a 15 minutes of proper research about him.

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#57

Im no less a science fiction fan than the next person but the whole “colonize Mars” thing is stupid and wasteful and arrogant and really pounds the message that billionaires are deeply deeply out of touch with the rest of society. Not only will colonizing Mars never work, there’s no reason at all to want to. What a dead, barren place. And in the meantime back down to earth people are really starting to care about ine…

I think you’ll get downvoted but I largely agree with you about the futility of the exercise. The complexity of the Earth’s system for sustaining life still far exceeds our understanding, and I think going to Mars will at best turn out to be a powerful way to learn that we cannot replicate it.

The typical moral justification is that the Earth may be threatened and so it would be prudent to have some humans somewhere else in the solar system.

Well the number one threat to Earth is an impact event. If we can hypothesize a rapidly growing lift capacity, why not use that mass budget to develop a solar-system-wide system for detecting and if necessary altering the trajectory of potential impacting objects? It would be WAY better to protect the Earth than any other backup plan.

The other big threat to the Earth would be a fast gamma ray burst but that would very likely get Mars and any other human colony as well.

The reality is that people want to go to Mars for the same reason people want to go climb mountains: because it is there. Our economic system provides a very few people with the resources to pursue those dreams. Whether that takes away from everyone else depends on how you think about the economy—to what extent you believe it is zero-sum.

Personally I think we should go to Mars for the simple purpose of going—I like exploration and climbing mountains too—but not fool ourselves about establishing a new human society there. To me it’s like say let’s establish a new human society on the summit of Everest. Which would be way easier than doing so on Mars, by the way!

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#58
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buddy, we're gonna dysonsphere every sun in the galaxy. Mars isn't arrogant, it's just that we have to learn to crawl before we start running.

Should we wait until we get a warp drive engine? Because thinking of reaching anything further than our solar system with our current physics (not technology- that we can improve by building stuff) is more silly than trying to cross the Pacific ocean with help of a floating rubber duck.

The next solar system is a mere 4 lightyears away. We have engine designs from the 1960 capable of reaching 5% the speed of light (Project Orion and successors). That's 80 years travel time, completely viable with current technology.

Of course it makes more sense to colonize at least one other planet in our solar system first to learn on a smaller scale with lower stakes. But waiting for entirely new physics is unessesary.

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#59

Im no less a science fiction fan than the next person but the whole “colonize Mars” thing is stupid and wasteful and arrogant and really pounds the message that billionaires are deeply deeply out of touch with the rest of society. Not only will colonizing Mars never work, there’s no reason at all to want to. What a dead, barren place. And in the meantime back down to earth people are really starting to care about ine…

Yes, we aren't colonizing the Gobi Desert and we're supposed to colonize Mars? What a silly idea.

We did colonize Dubai, that was a desert... Israel was a pretty deserty place too a while ago...

Re: Don’t stage off Starship

#60
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will never agree on the best way to spend money. So why don't we just let people spend their own money the way they choose?

This argument only really works when there's less inequality. There's a focus on what these ultra wealthy people are spending their money on because they have world-changing amounts of it. To put it another way, myself and Bezos are not equally free to spend Apollo mission money on solving problems.

I’m wondering if inequality is an example of Simpson's paradox: inequality in rich nations is going up but inequality worldwide is going down?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2013/12/Global-inequality...

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Public%...

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