Bloomberg U.S. Startups Barometer

What events correspond to the recent peaks in the chart? It looks like the VC world was spooked around the start of December and nothing has changed its mind ever since.

Given these are startups, I would expect much of the information to be private, but it seems highly unlikely this is a complete black box.

Edit: The comments below raise good possibilities. My own (very naïve) research yielded that there was a sharp dip in the the overnight repurchase agreements at the start of December and a small rise a month later. I don't think this is the cause, and I'm probably biased by media narrative more than anything, but it might lead somewhere assuming there's a connection by way of the amount of easy money floating around. The EFF rate also dropped around 24th of July and hasn't gone back up [2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF

Re: Bloomberg U.S. Startups Barometer

#8

Post by awb » Sat, Feb 15, 2020, 6:48 AM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #6

I'm pretty sure the market is turning. I'm seeing more stories on TC about companies shutting down than starting up. Rich people are starting to hold their cash in anticipation of a market dropout so they have reserves to buy up cheap assets.

There graph shows a market correction back to mid-2018 levels.

I'm not sure what caused the dramatic boost in 2019, but that spike appears to be more of an anomaly than a trend.

Re: Bloomberg U.S. Startups Barometer

#9

Post by kanwisher » Sat, Feb 15, 2020, 6:54 AM UTC

paxys wrote: post #5

Someone please overlay that with a Bitcoin price chart

perhaps thats what the over supply of startups was in 2018

Re: Bloomberg U.S. Startups Barometer

#10

Post by oddity » Sat, Feb 15, 2020, 6:55 AM UTC

awb wrote: post #8

jedberg wrote: post #6

I'm pretty sure the market is turning. I'm seeing more stories on TC about companies shutting down than starting up. Rich people are starting to hold their cash in anticipation of a market dropout so they have reserves to buy up cheap assets.

There graph shows a market correction back to mid-2018 levels. I'm not sure what caused the dramatic boost in 2019, but that spike appears to be more of an anomaly than a trend.

Without knowing the causes, I wouldn't be confident concluding that it's simply a correction to 2018 levels. But yes, it's also not worth the panic just yet.