Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
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Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#2This meme of shock and surprise that self-driving cars haven't appeared overnight is just media BS. Yes, all technology development is a gradual process and we may not know how long it takes. Companies working on it have pitch decks and investors so they give their best or most optimistic estimates.
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#3When I was starting my engineering career, it was right around when the first DARPA challenges had started. The hype was beginning, and my optimism towards technology was strong. I thought the predictions and timelines would be correct, and I still feel strongly that self-driving will be safer than humans in the long term.
Recently, I bought a newer Subaru, with EyeSight. It has adaptive cruise and lane keep assist. The LKA is fine - it'll beep if you sway outside of a lane, and automatically adjusts the steering, but it won't keep you centered. It's more of a safety thing, and it works well from that perspective.
The adaptive cruise is really good. It's camera based, and I have had zero problems with it. It works well at night and in pouring rain. It'll even stay pretty close to the car ahead of you if you turn the "tolerance" all the way down. I'm always impressed.
Since I've had this car, I've thought a lot more about the practical implementation details of actual self-driving. I more often notice situations when driving that are seriously complex.
The more I think about it while I'm driving, the more I realize how fucking hard self-driving would be.
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#4You have to wonder, when you see these stories, whether the engineers in charge of these programs spent much time driving around, trying to see the road like an AI might. In my experience, driving in the city, it's rare that I can go more than a few miles before some exception comes up that requires human judgment. Here's a few of the things I saw just last week:
* Car double parked. Do I cross the center line to go around them?
* Stop sign that's been bent and it's no longer obvious which street it refers to.
* Semi with its hazards on in a left turn lane. Do I make a left turn around it?
* Cop directing traffic by hand at an intersection.
Most city driving is a series of continual exceptions to the rules, or situations that are one-off. Who thought this would be easy?
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#5Than who expected? The criminally credulous tech media?
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#6You have to wonder, when you see these stories, whether the engineers in charge of these programs spent much time driving around, trying to see the road like an AI might. In my experience, driving in the city, it's rare that I can go more than a few miles before some exception comes up that requires human judgment. Here's a few of the things I saw just last week: * Car double parked. Do I cross the center line to go…
> Cop directing traffic by hand at an intersection.
That’s going to be really challenging. Good one!
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#7You have to wonder, when you see these stories, whether the engineers in charge of these programs spent much time driving around, trying to see the road like an AI might. In my experience, driving in the city, it's rare that I can go more than a few miles before some exception comes up that requires human judgment. Here's a few of the things I saw just last week: * Car double parked. Do I cross the center line to go…
> Cop directing traffic by hand at an intersection. That’s going to be really challenging. Good one!
Google (Waymo?) has been thinking through these exceptions: (around the 9:45 mark) https://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_...
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#8You mean the output of VC firm and Silly Con Valley marketing centipedes isn't strictly true? Perish the thought! Next thing you know, you'll be telling me the advocates of strong-AI, 3-d printing, Virtual Reality and Drones as revolutionary technology might not be exactly accurate.
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#9I have a feeling the adoption of AI will be like the early years of the internet. Massive hype, then a massive crash and then slowly it finds its into everything, fulfilling most of what was promised.
Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected
#10So do a lot of ventures but that's no reason to throw in the towel.