MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns • Hacker News Board

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#141

Post by totalZero » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 6:34 AM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #6

justinzollars wrote: post #2

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

Interest rates are negative. This causes people to chase and a big factor in this bubble. Companies are borrowing billions for free to do stock buybacks and keep the price going straight up. Nothing lasts forever. When is the big question.

Buybacks don't inflate the market cap, in theory.

What does happen, however, is that many modern buyback deals include a bid that gets more aggressive as the stock trades down. So in a selloff, the buyback actually supports the stock more than in a rally. This reduces downside volatility and prevents panic.

The debt problem is a huge issue, but with interest rates as low as they are, it's not entirely crazy to say "we think we will return more in capital gains from buying our own stock than we will be charged in interest for the loan to do so."

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#142

Post by totalZero » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 6:42 AM UTC

echelon wrote: post #80

snarf21 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are negative. This causes people to chase and a big factor in this bubble. Companies are borrowing billions for free to do stock buybacks and keep the price going straight up. Nothing lasts forever. When is the big question.

Are people trying to get in and out before the crash to make a quick buck, or are they long and hope to buy at a position cheaper than hypothetical post-recovery prices?

I think it's both. This rally has made people think that the market will outperform in the long run, but even those who believe we're in a bubble have some confidence that we haven't gone entirely euphoric yet.

I personally believe we have gotten to the brink of chaos. Foxconn has major issues getting employees back to work, and Apple has shut down stores in China, but AAPL stock is up. AMD is taking market share from Intel, but INTC rallied almost 10% on earnings. Iran launched missiles at a couple of bases housing Americans, and the market rallied the next day. Boeing stock is trading more than double where it was when the 737 Max 8 took its maiden flight. Everyone mentions in passing that equity values are inflated but nobody seems to give a damn.

Maybe people have gotten burned so many times fading the rally during the past three years that they've just given up on trying to call the top.

My money says it's all going to come crashing down eventually. Markets can remain irrational longer than impatient traders can remain solvent, but they have a way of normalizing sooner or later.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#143

Post by nindalf » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 6:45 AM UTC

totalZero wrote: post #136

OldOneEye wrote: post #13

While I feel sorry for the people that put the energy to make this happen and also for the people that may lose their jobs this month over this, as a native inhabitant of Barcelona, I can only celebrate the news, even if it is for this terrible reason. When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact). But usually this only fucks over non MWC attending people,…

You never really know what you've got till it's gone. A hundred thousand visitors eating, drinking, commuting, sightseeing, dwelling, and flying about in your city in a short period of time.....for many cities that would be a welcome occurrence (apart from the traffic woes). It's about $500m Euros of revenue, and I saw an estimate of something like 15k part-time jobs due to MWC. No small thing.

I suppose white collar workers who don’t rent out on airbnb don’t see any of that revenue. You could make an argument that they benefit indirectly when their local economy gets a boost and you’d probably be right.

But most people will look at the misery of temporary overcrowding, look at their bank account and think “no, I don’t want this” without considering second order effects.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#144

Post by totalZero » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 6:46 AM UTC

_-___________-_ wrote: post #129

mantap wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outbreak will be contained somehow, if it will continue into the summer, or if it will go away for the summer and come back in the winter again like the flu.

Containment seems to be working pretty well, if you compare the dynamics of it in China (and on the quarantined cruise ship) to the dynamics of it everywhere else.

We have no way of evaluating the truth of this claim. China has not been straightforward in its count of infections and fatalities [0]. The government has banned funerals for victims and ordered the cremation of their remains [1].

[0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/12/corona...

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-virus-funeral-o...

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#145

Post by AlunAlun » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 6:50 AM UTC

OldOneEye wrote: post #13

While I feel sorry for the people that put the energy to make this happen and also for the people that may lose their jobs this month over this, as a native inhabitant of Barcelona, I can only celebrate the news, even if it is for this terrible reason. When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact). But usually this only fucks over non MWC attending people,…

It is very trendy for Barcelona residents (I am one also) to moan about the MWC or ‘gentrification’.

It is less trendy to complain about the relatively low unemployment and well-maintained civic infrastructure; both of which are boosted by a strong international business presence which employs a lot of people and brings a lot of wealth to the city.

Losing that international presence risks turning the city back to the dirty, poor, backwater it was in the 80s. If living with a couple of major international events a year is the alternative, I know which one I’d choose.

I think the cancellation of the MWC is a disaster for the city, not just in terms of short term economic loss, but in terms of longer term strategy, as the MWC is already muttering about following other events to Madrid or elsewhere.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#146

Post by aaron695 » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 7:03 AM UTC

clement_b wrote: post #4

This is a very sad news for the city of Barcelona and for everyone involved in organizing or exhibiting. But that was the right choice. I'm wondering what's next to be cancelled.

> But that was the right choice.

Why?

People will die because it was cancelled. The worlds economy is starting to fail.

But it's not up to the MWC 2020 organisers to help prop up the world and save lives.

Why in particular was it a correct decision here?

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#147

Post by totalZero » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 7:07 AM UTC

sub7 wrote: post #73

justinzollars wrote: post #2

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

There's been a grand fiscal policy experiment over the last 12 years unlike anytime before. It has resulted in every asset class losing price discovery mechanisms and basically becoming untethered from fundamentals. Nobody knows how this will end, or when. Could be months, could be decades.

I agree with your comment about the fiscal policy experiment, but not with your stated timeline of 12 years. QE was a smart way out of the crisis, but we didn't tighten as we ought've when the economy got up to speed about five years ago. I think of QE as the choke on a carbureted engine; once you get things heated up, you should lean out the mixture. Meanwhile, Bernanke is still out here talking about QE as a forever tool for the Fed.

Fundamentals try to explain and predict valuations; they don't dictate them. Only supply and demand, within the constraints of the market, can control valuations. And to be pedantic, price discovery is faster and tighter today than ever before, and that's part of the reason we have so many lively derivatives markets.

The problem, as you aptly point out, is that this price does not fit any model that is blind to the rates component of equity demand. The word "untethered" is totally appropriate for what's happening in the market; there's a disconnect between price action and corporate earnings growth because there's demand for equities in general when everything else yields almost nothing.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#148

Post by totalZero » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 7:09 AM UTC

aaron695 wrote: post #146

clement_b wrote: post #4

This is a very sad news for the city of Barcelona and for everyone involved in organizing or exhibiting. But that was the right choice. I'm wondering what's next to be cancelled.

> But that was the right choice. Why? People will die because it was cancelled. The worlds economy is starting to fail. But it's not up to the MWC 2020 organisers to help prop up the world and save lives. Why in particular was it a correct decision here?

Several major participants had already backed out or substantially lightened their presence, and a single transmission of the novel coronavirus at MWC would be a disaster for Barcelona as well as GSMA. Not something easily forgotten.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#149

Post by chvid » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 7:09 AM UTC

OldOneEye wrote: post #13

While I feel sorry for the people that put the energy to make this happen and also for the people that may lose their jobs this month over this, as a native inhabitant of Barcelona, I can only celebrate the news, even if it is for this terrible reason. When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact). But usually this only fucks over non MWC attending people,…

Where does that attitude towards tourism come from?

I know this is politics but other places would welcome tourism and professional conferences with open arms.

When I see a group of tourists cueing in front of something in Copenhagen - sure - I might get annoyed but those people are bringing in money. Not to me personally. But that tourist money gets taxed or spent again. And ultimately it ends up being spent on a nicer park or causes some new cool restaurant to be viable, all benifical to me.

Eventhough we have extreme political parties here; noone is bad-mouthing tourism. Everyone knows we live of trade and we need to be an open and welcoming place; and it is out own problem to make sure our public transport can handle its peak traffic.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#150

Post by totalZero » Thu, Feb 13, 2020, 7:15 AM UTC

downerending wrote: post #39

Aperocky wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right, except cases are not in exponential growth for a period of time already if you’ve been following closely. Right now it’s more or less linear

Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi...

These numbers come from an overwhelmed, propagandist third-world authoritarian government.

It is surprising to me that anyone would simply accept them as fact.