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MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

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Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a factor, but bluntly put, the ones who are reporting this single number aren't medical professionals. Those might still use it in conversation amongst each other, sure, but any actual analysis will be based on far more data than a single number. Fundamentally this is the press trying to boil things down to a double soundbite. As usual. The case fatality ratio is literally defined as deaths over cases, and th…

I'm not so much worried about how the experts interpret this number behind closed doors, but how everyone else reacts to it. This thread began with someone confidently saying that the 2% death rate will decline as we get better data, and using that to argue against the cancellation of the MWC. I've also seen about a million thinkpieces and social media posts telling us that we're crazy to worry about this virus becau…

It's an issue.

2% is almost certainly an underestimate, in this case. I read an article the other day which did statistical analysis on various groups of cases; it came up with a CFR of 18% for Wuhan (95%, 11% to 80-something), and while the expectation for cases in Singapore is still a little over 2%, that's because the medical system in Singapore isn't overwhelmed.

Reporting that would be an equally bad idea, though. The case fatality ratio only counts infections that are severe enough for the patient to go to hospital and become a case, and we know a large fraction of infections don't. Probably over 90%. Which would push that back down to 2%.

Not that a death rate of 2% of all infected is anything short of apocalyptic, but that's why they're trying so hard to quarantine it.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#122
post #116

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

Stock prices are (generally speaking) about the sentiment of the long term performance of a company. The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem. As long as a company can survive this short term loss of productivity there is no need for the stock valuation to be lowered.

> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem

We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outbreak will be contained somehow, if it will continue into the summer, or if it will go away for the summer and come back in the winter again like the flu.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#123
post #80
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are negative. This causes people to chase and a big factor in this bubble. Companies are borrowing billions for free to do stock buybacks and keep the price going straight up. Nothing lasts forever. When is the big question.

Are people trying to get in and out before the crash to make a quick buck, or are they long and hope to buy at a position cheaper than hypothetical post-recovery prices?

Time not in the market is more expensive than timing the market.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#124
post #80
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are negative. This causes people to chase and a big factor in this bubble. Companies are borrowing billions for free to do stock buybacks and keep the price going straight up. Nothing lasts forever. When is the big question.

Are people trying to get in and out before the crash to make a quick buck, or are they long and hope to buy at a position cheaper than hypothetical post-recovery prices?

If r/wallstreetbets is any indicator, they have no plan whatsoever and are total idiots. Given Hanlon's Razor, 9/10 people on the market are similar.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#125
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

The scenes from Wuhan are pretty grim - people turned away from hospitals, crematoria running 24/7. I think it's understandable that other countries don't want to repeat that hence caution may be advisable. You don't see anything like that with normal flu.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#126
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are people trying to get in and out before the crash to make a quick buck, or are they long and hope to buy at a position cheaper than hypothetical post-recovery prices?

If r/wallstreetbets is any indicator, they have no plan whatsoever and are total idiots. Given Hanlon's Razor, 9/10 people on the market are similar.

/r/wallstreetbets is a joke...

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people are worried about the unknown unknowns. IIUC, it's infectious for a considerable period of time (one or two weeks) before the infected person becomes systematic. Plus, it's possible that some infectious persons never develop symptoms. Also, the case count is still in exponential growth mode. Plus, information coming out of China might be incomplete. No idea whether the conference should be cancelled, b…

The MWC was going to be attended by 100,000 people, 75% of them from Europe and the US, 10% from Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and 9% from the rest of the world. Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Can any of them come infected by the COVD-19? The probability is very low. Almost all of the participants will come from areas where the presence of the CO…

[deleted]

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#128
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet there are actually suicide clusters, with people essentially "catching it" from their friends or loved ones who've committed suicide.

This seems like equivocation on the meaning of "catching it." Isolating yourself so that you either have no close relationships or somehow never hear about any suicides among your close relationships is a fairly nonsensical proposal, and probably wouldn't in fact decrease your chances of committing suicide.

The notion of communicability is a broad one, and there are numerous concepts of "epidemic" which extend beyond the notion of purely biologically infectious (bacterial, viral, parasitic) diseases, including "epidemic of obesity", "epidemic of violence", etc.

It was an article regarding the latter which made the general case (and I'll see if I can't turn it up). Effectively: if you have a phenomenon which includes transmission from carrier to susceptible populations, then you're dealing with a case of epidemic.

This generalises in some interesting (and quite probably controversial) ways. Richard Dawkins's notion of the meme -- a unit of transmissible cultural information -- falls squarely within the model, and suggests a further generalisation:

Epidemics exist where there is an infectious agent (biological, material, energetic, informational) originating from some source or reservoir which causes a negative functional or behavioural change in a susceptible population spreading along vectors of transmission. They further have characteristics of exposure-response, latency, transmissivity (e.g., source => individual, sometimes individual => individual), susceptibility or resistance, symptomatic / asymptomatic periods, morbidity and mortality rates, etc.

This means we can look at agents including the familiar bacteria, aemoebae, parasites, and viruses, but also more exotic notions: prions, chemical, physical, and radiological triggers (say, heavy metals, asbestos / PM2.5 matter, radon or plutonium), and cultural or informational ones: cults, religions, mythologies, ideologies, psychological disorders, stress, and the like.

What the model offers are notions of potential containment. I've done some research to see if there's an underlying theory or model of public health or epidemiology (and would expect it to closely correspond to the above). What I've found looking through introductory texts is that there largely is not, but instead the focus is on teaching statistical monitoring methods used within the field. I'm not sure if I'm looking in the wrong places, or if there simply is no such generalised model.

But again: if you can identify specific agents (biological, material, informational, energetic), sources, vectors, susceptibility factors, and the like, then it's possible to apply fairly standard epidemiological notions to prevention.

Note that the direct medical intervention of cure is not on that list -- it's an expensive and uncertain intervention, and one that comes with very high costs. Far better to practice avoidance, increase resistance, and reduce transmission, as well as monitor aggressively for outbreaks. All of which are what we're seeing in the case of 2019-nCoV.

In the case of mental health, the study of suicide itself is foundational to sociology (Emil Durkheim's book of the same title, Suicide: https://archive.org/details/DurkheimEmileSuicideAStudyInSoci...), for numerous reasons. It turns out that rates are very consistent across time, with a few notable exceptions. There's considerable variance across place, whether triggered by culture or natural environment isn't clear. As David Simon, author of The Wire notes, dead bodies are hard to hide (see his excellent "The Audacity of Despair", ignore the recording and speaking quality issues: https://www.invidio.us/watch?v=nRt46W3k-qw). And suicide itself is an extreme act. So by looking at trends with time, you're finding a exceptionally strong signal of underlying social dysfunctions.

Looking at the epidemiological model, isolating yourself might reduce some dynamics of infection (vectors of transmission), but would quite likely increase others (susceptibility through social isolation). The model's underlying premise is that you simply cannot assess these factors in isolation, which would point out the flaw in your reasoning.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#129
post #122
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock prices are (generally speaking) about the sentiment of the long term performance of a company. The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem. As long as a company can survive this short term loss of productivity there is no need for the stock valuation to be lowered.

> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outbreak will be contained somehow, if it will continue into the summer, or if it will go away for the summer and come back in the winter again like the flu.

Containment seems to be working pretty well, if you compare the dynamics of it in China (and on the quarantined cruise ship) to the dynamics of it everywhere else.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#130
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Olympics are this summer, could be at risk if it hasn't been contained by then, especially given the proximity of Japan to China/mainland asia.

Could the Olympics be postponed a year? There's no president for this, but if the disease can't be contained, it seems prudent. I was planning on visiting Japan this summer. Now I'm somewhat hesitant to do any travel.

I assume you mean precedent, and there is something of a precedent with the 1940 Summer Olympics.
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