Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Serious cases and mortality (2%) will be adjusted downwards safely in the coming weeks, as the detection of mild cases increases. There are factors that could move that number in both directions. Yes, presumably there are many mild cases that haven't been counted. But unfortunately coronavirus deaths are probably also undercounted -- for example, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pne... This…
For example, using the simple methodology, SARS' death rate was only about 3%, and that was the number most media used during the outbreak. But years after the epidemic ended, once researchers had greater access to medical records, the death was determined to be 10-15%, or roughly 3-5x higher than originally reported. In the cases of NCV, there is already significant evidence of under reporting of fatalities by Chine…
China just changed how it classifies NCV cases to reduce the number of cases by eliminating those who are infected but not symptomatic meaning the numbers are even less reliable than they were before.
The problem with this is that a number of the superspreaders, like the British fellow that infected 11 other people, and the passenger that infected the cruise ship quarantined in Japan, were not symptomatic when they were infecting others.