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MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

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Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Serious cases and mortality (2%) will be adjusted downwards safely in the coming weeks, as the detection of mild cases increases. There are factors that could move that number in both directions. Yes, presumably there are many mild cases that haven't been counted. But unfortunately coronavirus deaths are probably also undercounted -- for example, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pne... This…

For example, using the simple methodology, SARS' death rate was only about 3%, and that was the number most media used during the outbreak. But years after the epidemic ended, once researchers had greater access to medical records, the death was determined to be 10-15%, or roughly 3-5x higher than originally reported. In the cases of NCV, there is already significant evidence of under reporting of fatalities by Chine…

Followup: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/world/asia/china-coronavi...

China just changed how it classifies NCV cases to reduce the number of cases by eliminating those who are infected but not symptomatic meaning the numbers are even less reliable than they were before.

The problem with this is that a number of the superspreaders, like the British fellow that infected 11 other people, and the passenger that infected the cruise ship quarantined in Japan, were not symptomatic when they were infecting others.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#102

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

No clue about the stock market. But here is some interesting real-time traffic congestion data plotted with 2019 averages for cities. Gives a sense of how many people are going back to work. Scroll down and click "Last 7 days" Notice SF & London are trending with 2019 averages: SF: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/san-francisco-tra... London: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/london-traffic Then co…

This is a great resource. Thanks

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#103
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

> follow all possible contacts.

Not a practical strategy for thousands of conference attendees packed closely together for a short period of time before flying back home. This virus is too infectious and has too long of an incubation period. That's why so many public events are being canceled. This exact scenario is playing out right now aboard the cruise ship docked in Japan.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people are worried about the unknown unknowns. IIUC, it's infectious for a considerable period of time (one or two weeks) before the infected person becomes systematic. Plus, it's possible that some infectious persons never develop symptoms. Also, the case count is still in exponential growth mode. Plus, information coming out of China might be incomplete. No idea whether the conference should be cancelled, b…

The MWC was going to be attended by 100,000 people, 75% of them from Europe and the US, 10% from Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and 9% from the rest of the world. Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Can any of them come infected by the COVD-19? The probability is very low. Almost all of the participants will come from areas where the presence of the CO…

> Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19.

Holding MWC without Huawei, ZTE, BBK, Xiaomi and co. is pretty much meaningless

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#105
post #88
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The flu, in Catalonia, this week has reached figures of 360 cases / 100,000 inhabitants: more than 120 times higher than the incidence of COVID-19 infection in China.[1] We need to stop comparing this to the flu. The flu is an established widespread virus with a very low mortality rate. This is a new, so far still spreading, virus with what appears to be a high mortality rate. If you had to choose between being inf…

The Spanish flu had a mortality of 10-20%. Everything points to this thing having a mortality similar to the seasonal flu.

Similar being at least 100x more lethal?

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#106
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

From what I understand, the medical community is treating this outbreak with such extreme measures because this virus is a perfect storm of factors that could lead to a new annual disease emerging, just like the flu and cold. It's deadly enough to become a major global concern and transmissible enough that it can continue spreading via asymptomatic hosts and other viral reservoirs between outbreaks. The jury is still…

I hadn't even thought of the possibility that there could be a new cyclical virus that emerges!

Thank you smart people in the WHO and global health community.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#107
The official infection and death numbers in China appear to be completely fabricated as they followed an almost perfect quadratic progression: https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_...

None of the various measures taken to contain the outbreak have affected those numbers.

This apparently has happened before with organ donation data: https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s129...

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#108
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

I read your post, looked at your profile, and now I'm suffering from a severe case of cognitive dissonance.

> To put things in perspective, although perhaps inaccurate, the number of cases of COVID-19 infection in China is less than 3 cases / 100,000 inhabitants.

What kind of perspective are we getting by adding the entirety of China to a locked down Wuhan when considering the infection rate? And then to go on to compare that to flu rates in Catalonia. Really, what point is that supposed to make?

> Our Health Alerts and Emergencies system works, works as a team and the protocols established in the EU apply: detect the case, isolate it, treat it and follow all possible contacts. In this way, the transmission chain can likely be properly controlled.

How can this possibly work if carriers are infectious for lord knows how many days before symptoms appear? It's laughable. How does this crack team of contact follow uppers deal with the case of a single infected metropolitan commuter?

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#109
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet there are actually suicide clusters, with people essentially "catching it" from their friends or loved ones who've committed suicide.

This seems like equivocation on the meaning of "catching it." Isolating yourself so that you either have no close relationships or somehow never hear about any suicides among your close relationships is a fairly nonsensical proposal, and probably wouldn't in fact decrease your chances of committing suicide.

The realization that suicide has contagious properties does have practical ethical ramifications for journalism. It's not some impractical theoretical matter that can't be acted on.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#110

This is a very sad news for the city of Barcelona and for everyone involved in organizing or exhibiting. But that was the right choice. I'm wondering what's next to be cancelled.

F1 Chinese GP was announced as being canceled/rescheduled today. Interesting that they're canceling events that are scheduled that far out, it wasnt supposed to happen until April 19th.

Logistics for a F1 race means equipment, and I assume staff start leaving for China in the next few weeks.

This video is basically an ad for DHL but goes through some of the logistics aroun F1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH6Loko0BOA

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