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MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

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Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#71

Post by gamblor956 »

retsibsi wrote: post #60
merqurio wrote: post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

> Serious cases and mortality (2%) will be adjusted downwards safely in the coming weeks, as the detection of mild cases increases. There are factors that could move that number in both directions. Yes, presumably there are many mild cases that haven't been counted. But unfortunately coronavirus deaths are probably also undercounted -- for example, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pne... This…

For example, using the simple methodology, SARS' death rate was only about 3%, and that was the number most media used during the outbreak. But years after the epidemic ended, once researchers had greater access to medical records, the death was determined to be 10-15%, or roughly 3-5x higher than originally reported.

In the cases of NCV, there is already significant evidence of under reporting of fatalities by Chinese authorities in Wuhan (some sources suggest that up to 90% of NCV deaths in China may be unreported).

And as the cruise ship stuck outside of Japan demonstrates, the virus may be far more virulent (i.e., contagious) than previously thought.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#72

Post by Filligree »

retsibsi wrote: post #60
merqurio wrote: post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

> Serious cases and mortality (2%) will be adjusted downwards safely in the coming weeks, as the detection of mild cases increases. There are factors that could move that number in both directions. Yes, presumably there are many mild cases that haven't been counted. But unfortunately coronavirus deaths are probably also undercounted -- for example, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pne... This…

It does, but that's a known factor which all medical professionals are aware of. The true number is unknowable until the epidemic is over, so they give the best number we've got in full knowledge that the numerical value will be wrong.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#73

Post by sub7 »

justinzollars wrote: post #2

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

There's been a grand fiscal policy experiment over the last 12 years unlike anytime before. It has resulted in every asset class losing price discovery mechanisms and basically becoming untethered from fundamentals.

Nobody knows how this will end, or when. Could be months, could be decades.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#74

Post by sundvor »

downerending wrote: post #34
merqurio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The MWC was going to be attended by 100,000 people, 75% of them from Europe and the US, 10% from Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and 9% from the rest of the world. Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Can any of them come infected by the COVD-19? The probability is very low. Almost all of the participants will come from areas where the presence of the CO…

> where the presence of the COVD-19 is nil or extremely low I don't think this is known or knowable at the moment. Hence the worry. You are right that airports are probably a greater risk. Perhaps they should be closed. On the other hand, that would be far more disruptive. As for basic hygiene, yes, we all should. At the same time, we all know that a significant fraction of the population can't or won't do this. Edit…

Yep, keep seeing how people use their freshly washed hand to pull open a door.

It only takes one person leaving without washing their hands for the irony to be apparent.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#75

Post by tristanj »

Aperocky wrote: post #36
downerending wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people are worried about the unknown unknowns. IIUC, it's infectious for a considerable period of time (one or two weeks) before the infected person becomes systematic. Plus, it's possible that some infectious persons never develop symptoms. Also, the case count is still in exponential growth mode. Plus, information coming out of China might be incomplete. No idea whether the conference should be cancelled, b…

You’re right, except cases are not in exponential growth for a period of time already if you’ve been following closely. Right now it’s more or less linear

EDIT: Hubei Province added 14,840 new cases today, my earlier analysis isn't right anymore. I've left it below.

Infected case growth has slowed down primarily because of the quarantine of Hubei province. The virus has up to a two week incubation period, and today two weeks later we're able to result of this quarantine. Case growth in Hubei has slowed down.

The issue now is that every major city in China has local infection clusters, and these infection clusters are growing exponentially.

https://i.imgur.com/lQcyqAX.jpg

Even if the net case growth rate is decreasing, the situation is less under control than ever before. Look at China's actions; they're past containment methods and now acting on mitigation.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#76

Post by unlinked_dll »

ct0 wrote: post #48
eanzenberg wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's not materially affecting American business.

Until supply becomes so limited it effects sales.

It would affect prices first. The real question mark is if it gets bad enough to where people default on their debt payments (there's over $13 trillion out there today) because the price of basic goods gets too high.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#77

Post by retsibsi »

Filligree wrote: post #72
retsibsi wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Serious cases and mortality (2%) will be adjusted downwards safely in the coming weeks, as the detection of mild cases increases. There are factors that could move that number in both directions. Yes, presumably there are many mild cases that haven't been counted. But unfortunately coronavirus deaths are probably also undercounted -- for example, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pne... This…

It does, but that's a known factor which all medical professionals are aware of. The true number is unknowable until the epidemic is over, so they give the best number we've got in full knowledge that the numerical value will be wrong.

This seems dangerous, if it leads to unwarranted complacency among those who take the number seriously. Do you know the rationale behind reporting a number known to be skewed in this way -- is the idea that it is roughly canceled out by other factors (e.g. the number of undiagnosed mild cases) that push toward an overestimate?

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#78

Post by jaynetics »

OldOneEye wrote: post #13

While I feel sorry for the people that put the energy to make this happen and also for the people that may lose their jobs this month over this, as a native inhabitant of Barcelona, I can only celebrate the news, even if it is for this terrible reason. When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact). But usually this only fucks over non MWC attending people,…

Thanks for the local perspective! I get the feeling MWC is a bit of a scapegoat here, tough.

> When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact).

So won't they just choose any other date with the next highest impact for their strike now? Why is that better?

> BCN is already overloaded with tourism, events like MWC only make it worse for those of us that live there.

100.000 visitors for 4 days, that must be less than 1% of Barcelona's hotel nights/year. It's also happening during off-season, so shouldn't lead to more housing capacity being taken away from the locals.

I get when people complain about the Olympics in their city or other costly events with unclear rewards, but this seems pretty harmless?

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#79

Post by baddox »

kalipsosu wrote: post #66
baddox wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a doctor or a public health expert, but it seems to be that unqualified uncertainty should not be used as justification for any action other than pursuing more information to qualify that uncertainty. Otherwise we would maximally quarantine any illness for which we are at all uncertain of an upper bound on its basic reproduction number or mortality.

I am. The most important factor here is Ro not uncertainty. Maybe I should emphasize it more.

I was replying specifically to when you said "Also this is a novel virus which means this strain is new and may be unpredictable. Mutations may occur." I interpreted that as meaning that because of our lack of knowledge about this strain and the fact that it may mutate, some unspecified amount of additional concern is warranted.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#80

Post by echelon »

snarf21 wrote: post #6
justinzollars wrote: post #2

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

Interest rates are negative. This causes people to chase and a big factor in this bubble. Companies are borrowing billions for free to do stock buybacks and keep the price going straight up. Nothing lasts forever. When is the big question.

Are people trying to get in and out before the crash to make a quick buck, or are they long and hope to buy at a position cheaper than hypothetical post-recovery prices?
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