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Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

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Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#641

Post by obmelvin »

ohithereyou wrote: post #629
fortran77 wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Handwriting recognition works very well if you can capture the actual strokes used while writing and not just the end result.

That's great, but I would wager that nearly 100% of all writing ever done in human history was done without capturing the strokes while writing. Therefore, while this added accuracy is great, it is virtually useless for most written work.

Isn't that a bit irrelevant? If we are talking about patterns that work well for the user, clearly writing everything traditionally and then going back and taking pictures of everything is a cumbersome process. Writing on iPad or similar is clearly the medium in which this shines, at which point you do capture the strokes.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#642

Post by syshum »

aguyfromnb wrote: post #538
syshum wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually one of the biggest obstacles to Level 5 is expectation of Zero Deaths for Level 5 autonomous operations. The standard should be fewer deaths than human-operated (or even auto assisted ) cars. When you have thousands of machines traveling in close proximity at speeds exceeding 50mph there will be deaths, this is unavoidable. We need to reduce those as much as possible but to demand ZERO before the technology…

> The standard should be fewer deaths than human-operated (or even auto assisted ) cars. How do we go about testing this? By tallying up autonomous deaths until there are fewer per year than human drivers? > We need to reduce those as much as possible but to demand ZERO before the technology can be used is just unrealistic Human driver skill varies immensely by person. The idea that anyone who is (or even considers t…

Everyone thinks they are "good" drivers, even the person weaving in out of lanes, even the person that has a car that has 500 dents all over it from previous impacts that were all caused by "other bad drivers not me"

What will happen is human-controlled cars will become $$$$$$ to ensure once Level 5 is better than humans. At that point, if you can afford it sure you can reject it but get out your wallet

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#643

Post by allovernow »

fxtentacle wrote: post #233
allovernow wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you got these papers but you clearly got an awful sampling and I don't think you're giving computer vision a fair evaluation. Granted, we're not quite ready for self driving, but there's no question that the neural network subfield of ML has absolutely exploded in the last 5-10 years and is bursting with productionizable, application ready architectures that are already solving real world problems.

You sound like an NVIDIA salesperson trying to sell me on a $3000 Titan ;) There is no doubt in my mind that an AI with billions of parameters will be excellent at memorizing stuff. I also have no doubt that research activity has exploded, which might be related to the generous hardware grants being handed out... But all that research has produced surprisingly little progress over algorithms from 2004 in the field of…

>There is no doubt in my mind that an AI with billions of parameters will be excellent at memorizing stuff

We're way past memorization. We're into interpolation and extrapolation in high D spaces with Bayesian parameters. Sentiment analysis and contextual searches - search by idea, not keyword. Heuristic decision making. Massively accelerated 3D modeling with 99% accuracy. Generative nets for text, music, scientific models...

Sorry, but you're behind the times, and that's ok - one of us will be proven right in the next 1-5 years. Based solely on the work we're doing at the startup I'm working for, we're on the cusp of an ML revolution. Time will tell, but personally I'm pretty excited. And don't worry, I'm not working in adtech or anything useless.

That said, the driving problem seems to be quite far from being solved, I agree though it is outside my expertise; but I think the primary issue is that this is an application where error must be unrealistically low, a constraint which does not apply to many other domains. You can get away with a couple percent of uncertainty when people's lives aren't on the line!

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#645

Post by plopz »

asdff wrote: post #341
easytiger wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could even make it so that you drive it yourself and keep it outside your home to use when you need. What an innovation that would be

Would be great if you could afford the $40k and insurance to house that 4000lb hunk of precious metal you spend energy moving around everywhere you go. A bus pass is a $1.75 on the other hand...

The bus pass wouldn't be $1.75 if it serviced the rural areas. The economics just don't work with low population density.

Look at NJ Transit, in rural areas if you have a train station you get 2-3 commuter trains in the morning on week days and no service on the weekend or during the day/late at night. And thats for NJ, which has high population density even in rural areas, is physically small and is part of the north east corridor.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#646

Post by hugh-avherald »

tiborsaas wrote: post #437
PopeRigby wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think self driving cars are a ridiculous solution to a problem we created and doesn't need to exist. The US building out the country for cars wasn't a good way to do transportation. If we just had trains going from city to city and subways in the cities, we wouldn't even need self driving cars.

I never owned a car, but going anywhere, anytime, at will is a very real thing and cars are the obvious solution. Humans are terrible at safe driving and self driving will eventually solve this. I don't see how this is not the future of transportation.

> Humans are terrible at safe driving

I'd dispute this. I'd say humans are excellent at many aspects of it. The high mortality is simply because driving is inherently dangerous and we do a lot of it.

I imagine the solution is basically what has happened over the last 60 years: gradual changes to improve safe driving.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#647

Post by [deleted] »

fxtentacle wrote: post #187

I avoid new technology, exactly because I'm an engineer. I wonder if that is just me, but when new technology is introduced and hyped, I usually take a quick look at implementations, research, and talks just to get an idea of what the state of the art really is like. As a result, I have become the late adopter among my group of friends because the first iteration of any new technology usually just isn't worth the iss…

[deleted]

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#648

Post by daemin »

tim333 wrote: post #610
ipsi wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that there are so, so many edge cases to worry about. Simple example: someone decides to troll you in your self-driving car and steps out in front of it. You don't have controls in the car, so you can't go around them - you have to wait for them to move. In reality, it seems like it would resolve quickly - you get out and yell at them, call the police if that doesn't work, etc. But it can get more sinist…

Re robbers, car jackers and the like in some ways you may be better with a self driving car as they seem to be covered with cameras and report back to base the whole time so the crooks would be photographed and the cops called. Already the Tesla cameras have caught a few https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqBWt9rRx-U Re all the edge cases - yeah that'll take a while.

There was a movie which featured autonomously driving trucks, they were held up and stolen from by the bandits putting a cow in front of them, then just taking the cargo while it was stopped.

You can certainly have all the cameras that you need but if the bad guys have their faces covered and identifying marks hidden then you're not going to be able to do much.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#649

Post by samatman »

nradov wrote: post #640
fortran77 wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Handwriting recognition works very well if you can capture the actual strokes used while writing and not just the end result.

I doubt it. My handwriting is at least average neatness, and stroke based recognition systems still make multiple errors per sentence. It's just a frustrating waste of time and now that we have touch screen keyboards there's no longer any point to handwriting recognition. The only handwriting recognition system which ever worked correctly with a low error rate was Palm Graffiti. It forced the user to learn a new shor…

While we're sharing anecdotes, my handwriting is remarkably terrible, and the iPadOS Notes app does a good job of transcribing it.

I think this supports the grandparent's point about using the actual strokes, including angle and azimuth, to reconstruct intent.

I was also fairly proficient with Graffiti, back in the day, but I consider that an input method, not handwriting recognition. I was facile with T9 as well.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#650

Post by wbl »

NotATroll wrote: post #635
Alupis wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. It's followers see no other possible solution as acceptable. Instead of putting our heads together to make really good driver assistance technologies and being satisfied, the darn thing needs to also drive itself everywhere otherwise we're leaving something on the table! Untill we have zero deaths, we cannot stop demanding…

> Forget better frame, chassis, and body panel design to protect pedestrians! We won't need them if AI never hits anyone. Most car manufacturers have had this figured out for a long time with crumple zones and the like. > Forget better braking systems that apply themselves automatically Assisted braking technology is already implemented in some cars. Hell, Tesla implements basically exactly what you're asking for...…

Modern cars are deadly to pedestrians, especially SUVs.
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