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Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

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Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think self driving cars are a ridiculous solution to a problem we created and doesn't need to exist. The US building out the country for cars wasn't a good way to do transportation. If we just had trains going from city to city and subways in the cities, we wouldn't even need self driving cars.

The 'problem' doesn't even exist; non-autonomous cars work fine in America. Autonomy is a luxury product.

Owning your own car seems lime the much bigger waste in the long run. Imagine only needing a fraction of vehicles in total.

Owning your own car will become a luxury for many people. Kinda like owning a horse.

I‘d still rent one every once in a while for road trips and camping though.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#392
post #30

This is sad and tragic. I remember going with a friend on a Tesla test drive. He was eager to try the Autopilot system. And within a few minutes we got freaked out with what seem to us as unpredictable action and we turned it off. I think the engineer should have never relied on it. Especially if he had concerns with the system. At the same time, "Autopilot" is misleading and Tesla does own responsibility here. Even…

Autopilot never meant full automatic control. In a plane context, which was the most common until now, it's only used to keep a trajectory steady, and anything unusual has to be taken care of by a human pilot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autopilot > Autopilots do not replace human operators, but instead they assist them in controlling the vehicle. Names don't really mean anything, it could have been named anything.…

> Names don't really mean anything

This is so, so wrong. Names explicitly set people's expectations.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#393
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I am not a pilot I have been on the flight deck of a 747. Can confirm that the pilots do not touch anything for hours at a time. IIRC they mostly checked the weather, fuel, engines, altitude and heading infrequently. The aircraft flew itself all the way to the Heathrow pattern. I asked what would happen if they did nothing. They claimed the aircraft would circle above the airport until it ran out of fuel. The p…

And it'll fly happily into a mountain or other plane, if unmonitored. Now the problem is streets are a little more crowded.

There are no mountains at the cruise altitude of a 747. TCAS will provide a warning 30 seconds before collision and the Airbus A380 has an autopilot with integrated TCAS avoidance. So it will hit neither mountains (too low) nor other aircraft (automatic avoidance).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffic_collision_avoidance_sy...

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#394

There are going to be Autopilot crashes and people should disable it if they uncomfortable with putting their lives in the hands of Tesla's software. I would be. But I see no reason to not believe to not believe what they have on https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport It shows Teslas have much fewer accidents than the average car, and that Teslas with autopilot enabled are substantially safe per mile than with aut…

I do believe autopilot has the potential to be safer than driving manually. But I'm not sure what to take out of that safety report. (1) Comparison against all other cars in US (and across all states) just introduces lots of sampling bias. Teslas are like much more common in states like CA, than say Tennessee. Tennessee accounts for much more accidents in general than California and that adds up in overall stats, but…

There’s also a sampling bias for the kinds of roads where Autopilot is available, and the kinds of circumstances where people are most likely to trust and use it.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use autopilot daily. It drives me, on a twisty road, from my house to work with intervention when I get into town. > how quickly might it react to a perceived obstacle? I've had it head towards a curbed median in the middle of the road and within 10 feet swerve to the right to miss it (in a spot that I've driven by hundreds of times, but this time it kinda decided to head towards the curbed median). Auto pilot can…

Thanks! I haven't read many firsthand accounts.

There are several youtube accounts (like "tesla driver") for solely this purpose - to show off how the autopilot behaves, in different situations, with hands or no hands, on long or short drives, in city, on highway, between the different autopilot update verions, in different weather etc. etc. If you are really interested you can already find a lot of firsthand information, with video no less so you can see exactly for yourself what the situation was and how AP handled it.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#396
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on tesla's safety report [1] it's already less dangerous than letting humans drive (alone). The error rate of human drivers tends to be downplayed, while the perceived risks of automated driving is exaggerated, distorting the picture. Yes, it's a hard problem, yes we are not nearly there and there is a lot of development/research to do. Yes, accidents will happen during the process. But humans suck at driving a…

The gross human fatal accident rate is ~7 accidents per billion miles in the US, including fatalities caused by incompetent or irresponsible drivers, and substantially lower in Europe. But humans drive a lot of miles Based on Tesla's safety report, 'more than 1 billion' miles have been driven using autopilot. Given the small data sample and the fatalities already attributed to autopilot, I think we're some way from p…

Marginal Revolution just highlighted an interesting detailed look at US car (driver) fatalities. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/wh...

>> After accounting for freeways (18%) and intersections and junctions (20%), we’re still left with more than 60% of drivers killed in automotive accidents left accounted for.

>> It turns out that drivers killed on rural roads with 2 lanes (i.e., one lane in each direction divided by a double yellow line) accounts for a staggering 38% of total mortality. This number would actually be higher, except to keep the three categories we have mutually exclusive, we backed out any intersection-related driver deaths on these roads and any killed on 2-lane rural roads that were classified as “freeway.”

>> In drivers killed on 2-lane rural roads, 50% involved a driver not wearing a seat belt. Close to 40% have alcohol in their system and nearly 90% of these drivers were over the legal limit of 0.08 g/dL.

I don't think people give enough attention to whether broad statistics actually apply to cases of interest. That's about 40% of all driver fatalities occurring on rural non-freeway roads, of which 35% (~14% overall) were legally driving drunk.

People compare various fatality rates associated with riding an airplane vs driving a car all the time, but I've never seen anyone point out that an incredibly simple mitigation you're probably already doing -- not driving on non-freeway rural roads -- lowers your risk of dying in a car accident by more than a third. And it gets even better if you're not driving drunk!

If you measure driving quality in terms of fatality rate, it is actually the case that almost everyone is better than average. A lot better than average. But public discussion completely misses this, because we prefer to aggregate unlike with unlike.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you got these papers but you clearly got an awful sampling and I don't think you're giving computer vision a fair evaluation. Granted, we're not quite ready for self driving, but there's no question that the neural network subfield of ML has absolutely exploded in the last 5-10 years and is bursting with productionizable, application ready architectures that are already solving real world problems.

> Granted, we're not quite ready for self driving if it was the case self driving cars wouldn't be on the road, I don't think we should aim for perfection, perfection will come. We should be looking for cars that make less errors on average than humans, once you have that you can start putting cars on the road and use data from the fleet to correct remaining errors.

Are there any fully autonomous cars on public roads with no driver that can intervene? Seems like only maybe in tightly constrained situations are we ready.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#398
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on tesla's safety report [1] it's already less dangerous than letting humans drive (alone). The error rate of human drivers tends to be downplayed, while the perceived risks of automated driving is exaggerated, distorting the picture. Yes, it's a hard problem, yes we are not nearly there and there is a lot of development/research to do. Yes, accidents will happen during the process. But humans suck at driving a…

That report is comparing humans driving in all conditions vs autopilot driving in only the best conditions. Humans are deciding when it is safe enough to turn autopilot on. So no, it is not less dangerous.

That's not what the report is comparing at all. The report is comparing all vehicles driving in all conditions vs Teslas driving in all conditions (separate for with and without autopilot).

The numbers show that Teslas experience a lower crash rate than other vehicles. Granted, this can be to a number of reasons including the hypothesis that humans deciding to buy Teslas drive more carefully to begin with. And the numbers show that turning on autopilot further reduces crash rates.

This at least tells us that letting the vehicles with the automated driving and safety features on the road doesn't increase the risk for the driver and others, which was the original premise I responded to.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#399
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling it autopilot, full self driving is borderline criminal.

Autopilot is an appropriate term, taken from aviation. And no one calls it full self driving since that hasn't been released yet.

Seriously, what is people's problem with that word? Tesla actively explains how this works currently (both in person and also in bold font on their website) when anyone buys a car. There is no owner of this car that thinks that it has full self-driving capability. It is literally a non-existent problem.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#400
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot never meant full automatic control. In a plane context, which was the most common until now, it's only used to keep a trajectory steady, and anything unusual has to be taken care of by a human pilot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autopilot > Autopilots do not replace human operators, but instead they assist them in controlling the vehicle. Names don't really mean anything, it could have been named anything.…

Every single time this is posted, I have to remind people that the video posted on Tesla's own Autopilot website [0] says this RIGHT at the beginning: "The person in the driver's seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" They are not saying "use with caution, autopilot is an assistance feature", they are saying "The car is driving itself". [0] https://www.tesla.com/aut…

> Current Autopilot features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.

You're conflating FSD with Autopilot.

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