Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

news.harvard.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 186 posts

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#151

Post by glandium »

eyegor wrote: post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

Wanna talk about quarantine fails?

Japan let some of their repatriates loose without quarantine because they had "important reasons". They went home, and while invited to stay home, who knows what they did in the two weeks since... Today it was announced that one of them was now positive for 2019-nCoV.

One of the quarantine workers on the Diamond Princess (the cruise ship stuck in quarantine in Yokohama) was found positive. Now they have to track his family too.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#153

Post by foldingmoney »

Fomite wrote: post #47
joeyspn wrote: post #5

Yesterday I submitted this but it didn't get many upvotes.. https://towardsdatascience.com/modelling-the-coronavirus-epi... I think that reached this point is obvious that in our hyperconnected cities a containment is going to be very difficult if the R0 is 3+ and we don't shutdown commuting PS: for those interested in real-time info from experts I recommended following: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter…

Please don't follow Eric Ding. He's not particularly qualified, and his statements to date have betrayed that he's not actually all that good at infectious disease epidemiology. I'd suggest, in place, Maia Majumder (@maiamajumder) and Tara Smith (@aetiology).

Also https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#154

Post by hatenberg »

droithomme wrote: post #106
nosborn wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of yesterday it’s 47 cases in Singapore. https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan

Hm, increasing 47/12 in 7 days is the same as doubling every 3.55 days.

Some involve evacuated individuals from Wuhan so its actually a slower growth rate

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#155

Post by Digory »

dghughes wrote: post #145

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. The temperature of a human body is 37ºC it's odd a virus would be incapacitated or slowed by "warm…

There's an observed fall in flu transmission where humidity is greater -- which usually accompanies warmer weather.

One theory is that water encapsulates the virus before it is breathed in, cutting aerosol transmission. [0]

[0]https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/flu-weather-its-not-cold-i...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#156

Post by hunvreus »

nosborn wrote: post #19
kulahan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"warm weather may have an effect on transmission" and "a warm city is dealing with infections" are not mutually exclusive statements. And for the record, as of a little over a week ago, there were only a dozen cases in Singapore according to the WHO. Even if they were mutually exclusive, Singapore isn't exactly the best example. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

As of yesterday it’s 47 cases in Singapore. https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan

22 of these were traveling straight from Wuhan.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#157

Post by illinformed »

Fomite wrote: post #67
jdhendrickson wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please flesh out your comment on Ding's skill in regard to infectious disease epidemiology ? I don't doubt you, I just like to know why people say things.

Sure thing. First, note that Eric Feigl-Ding is a nutritional epidemiologist, not an infectious disease epidemiologist. Infectious diseases are weird for a lot of reasons, and require something of a different skillset. For example, in a Tweet of his he has now deleted: "never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career." about the estimate for R0 for this novel coronavirus. Similar R0 e…

I wouldnt put infectious disease epidemiologists on a pedestal either, whilst they can use plain old Police-like detection methods to identify so called Super Spreaders, the egit's can not identify what makes someone a Super Spreader. Considering the medical profession are so limited in their ability to measure the content of every cell and condition of every cell, cell sensing, signalling, enzymatic activity and radical activity in-vivo, eg localised hydroxyl radical activity in the presence of pathogens, infectious disease epidemiologists are no better than social commentators if society is considered an organism, or economists who swear to an economic school of thought on a par with a religion of your choice.

All experts have a common trait, they espouse their virtues when they are right and slink into the shadows when they are wrong, sometimes, if they have the audacity they wait for the next opportunity before popping up like a jack in a box.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#158

Post by Fomite »

Anon84 wrote: post #110
Fomite wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an older paper (circa 2006) but...to be honest, I revisit it occasionally, and the problems we point out are still there. https://jvi.asm.org/content/81/11/5429

Ahahahahah... HN really is a small world. I remember this paper. The section on “indoor heating and AC” stuck to my memory to this day. Back then we were hoping for a seasonality-based follow up to this paper: https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21484 but it was not meant to be.

Seasonality is a...vexing problem. It seems to straight forward, and then...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#159

Post by koheripbal »

kragen wrote: post #129
bdcravens wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For purposes of discussion, I think they consider 102 years outside the range of “modern times”

Really? Early modern Britain is roughly the 16th to 18th century. Postmodernism and Other Essays was published in 1926. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_era is 1500 CE and later. If they intended to refer to such a nonstandard definition, don't you think they'd have been explicit about it rather than leaving readers to argue about it? Either they meant specifically that pandemic or they were just bullshitting w…

These semantic debates are absolutely worthless

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#160

Post by AnimalMuppet »

kragen wrote: post #129
bdcravens wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For purposes of discussion, I think they consider 102 years outside the range of “modern times”

Really? Early modern Britain is roughly the 16th to 18th century. Postmodernism and Other Essays was published in 1926. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_era is 1500 CE and later. If they intended to refer to such a nonstandard definition, don't you think they'd have been explicit about it rather than leaving readers to argue about it? Either they meant specifically that pandemic or they were just bullshitting w…

"Postmodernism" may have been in 1926, and it was post-modern... from the viewpoint of 1926. 94 years later, or boundaries have shifted somewhat...

(Even that article that you linked says, 'The definitions of both terms, "modern history" and "contemporary history", have changed over time, as more history has occurred, and so have their start dates.')

Post reply on HN