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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

news.harvard.edu

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#21

Post by Fomite »

haunter wrote: post #6

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like…

A couple notes on this:

- Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions.

- Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal, and a lot of "just so" stories.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#22

Post by ericb »

tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Chloroquine is over-the-counter in England and other places. Hypothetically, anyone have an idea where to find someone willing to send a chloroquine care-package to the USA?

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#24

Post by ericb »

devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#25

Post by [deleted] »

ourmandave wrote: post #18
teeray wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

It's to help coordinate a cure and containment if everyone (e.g. researchers, doctors, public officials, reporters.) knows it by one official name. Also COVID-19 is neutral, so it doesn't generate negative bias like the Spanish Flu. (Which didn't originate in Spain.)

[deleted]

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#26

Post by egdod »

Fomite wrote: post #23
egdod wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been calling it coronavirus since day one.

Not the epidemiologists, because "coronavirus" is way too vague.

People. Not every person. Not epidemiologists specifically, obviously.

But the name has now stuck.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#27

Post by Fomite »

egdod wrote: post #26
Fomite wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the epidemiologists, because "coronavirus" is way too vague.

People. Not every person. Not epidemiologists specifically, obviously. But the name has now stuck.

Yeah, but the WHO isn't naming things for "people".

Any more than the fact that "people" call things stomach flu when they're not at all influenza related changes that things are called "norovirus" and "rotavirus".

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#28

Post by foota »

devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#29

Post by wtvanhest »

foota wrote: post #28
devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.

I literally gritted my teeth when I read this.

https://www.google.com/search?q=S%26P&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS862US8...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#30

Post by rriepe »

teeray wrote: post #4
ourmandave wrote: post #3

It's now officially named COVID-19 by the WHO.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

Agreed. If this gets big, any mention of pre-2019 coronavirus will have to be qualified with "No, not that coronavirus."
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