Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
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Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
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Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#2Scary shit.
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#3Doesn't really treat the facts so well.
Coronavirus is known to be less transmissible in the warmer seasons. The long incubation period paused government intervention and bumped up the R0 value.
sources: the news
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#4[deleted]
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#5One point missing that I think could be important even in the more worrying scenarios is the average health condition or age of the people who develop severe stage infection.
If the CFR is high but people dying are mostly old and not of working age, the pandemic will create a drag on global economy but not as bad as the CFR might lead to suppose.
Don’t mean to sound cynical, just putting another element into the equation.
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#6From a reliable source, a Western journalist who was evacuated, this article's information seems accurate.
It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported. Also, it's compounded by the delay of information having to go to intermediaries before reaching international journalists. And, there are some isolated instances of bodies on the streets and in crashed cars of people not making it to the hospital before expiring, and then not being collected quickly because of fearful coroners/undertakers... which is expected in a minor pandemic in a densely-populated city. I would bet there are at least a dozen dead bodies on the street right now of the 400+ people who die in NYC's five boroughs every day. Even if it were Ebola-deadly and infectious as an airborne-mutated norovirus, sustained isolation of population members can kill any pathogen because its transmission rate drops to insignificant and then 0.
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#7From a reliable source, a Western journalist who was evacuated, this article's information seems accurate. It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported. Also, it's compounded by the delay of information having to go to intermediaries before reaching international journalists. And, there are some isolated instances of bo…
Where did you get 400+ deaths per day in NYC? That sounds really high; I bet it’s well under half that.
Here’s all I could find with cursory search: https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/TriciaMui.shtml
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#8From a reliable source, a Western journalist who was evacuated, this article's information seems accurate. It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported. Also, it's compounded by the delay of information having to go to intermediaries before reaching international journalists. And, there are some isolated instances of bo…
> It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported.
Definitely. IIRC, to be counted in the official statistics, an infected person has to have significant contact with the medical system, but the medical system in Wuhan has been so overloaded that people have been turned away in large numbers so that diagnostic work is not being done in many cases. There are reports of many people dying at home in Wuhan, which wouldn't be counted as part of the official statistics.
I've also heard reports that the crematoriums in Wuhan are also overloaded, and aren't allowed to report any statistics except to the government.
I don't think we'll know the full impact for a long time, until someone can some kind of excess mortality study with individualized vital records.
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#9"[..] a study in the Lancet estimated back on January 25th that 75,000 people had already been infected and that the virus was doubling every 6.4 days — which would suggest that more than 300,000 people may now be infected with the virus."
Doesn't this blatantly ignore the fact that the infection would have run its course in many of those people by now?
Re: Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios
#10Sorry for not being upbeat!
I am wondering why the world still does not seem to care about it. Why do we have to wait until every city gets infected? Why we can't stop travelling? Eventually, when it spreads to a city, the quarantine must be the only way... but why we aren't preventing that ourselves? The politicians does not really seem to care (in the bunkers)? Individual, consumer society with no interest and without resources, civil routine and real impact to the events is crazy to me. Even a couple of days ago WHO was thinking about restarting the flights to China. It's just WTF to me.
In last days I can't even read any tech/HN news because it's not news to me compared to this unsolved terrible situation. I don't even understand how this topic is not more visible here in HN and on other places. We need to do something.