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Debt is coming to the tech industry

alexdanco.com

161–170 of 204 posts

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#161

"Any one customer may be unknowable, but cohorts of customers can be modelled and understood decently well." Just substitute "mortgage" in this sentence, think back on events of the last decade, and you can see what is horribly wrong with this article. Lots of debt, all given to tech startups, which will almost all go bust with the first recession. Let's see, what does that remind me of? Of course, if you believe tha…

Well mortgages actually can be modeled well if people are willing to look at the actual risk. MBS markets are still existent today and work just fine now that banks got bitten and are still paying attention.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#162
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 2008 financial crisis was largely created by the perception that the government would take any downside. As long as we don’t have multiple generations of politicians campaigning on a platform of “every family deserves their own SaaS business” and buying up the debt, we’ll be fine.

You don't need that many participants in a bubble for it to have systematic impact. You just need enough participants inconveniently placed throughout the economy who stop paying their bills to various people.

No, what made it systemic was the assumption of the government taking the downside risk on people getting mortgages that shouldn’t have.

Massive boring banks won’t get swept up like they did with MBS products otherwise.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#163

> Debt is going to finally come to the tech industry Bear in mind that the tech industry exists in all countries with a population greater than 10. Also consider that this: > When people in tech want to sound smart, one name you can drop is Carlota Perez. ... is probably nonsense or at best pointing out another point of view. Not all companies work the way you think they do. Not all companies want to be yoked with th…

Thank you. I read this article twice, thought I was completely missing something. No, it's a pretty obvious statement wrapped around pseudo-intellectual ideas of Carlota Perez and presented in an Emperor's New Clothes style where if you disagree with it you're an idiot ("Maybe not all investors get this, but the smart ones do"). Alex was previously at Social Capital, a fund with amazing PR and huge egos combined with…

The article seemed pretty straightforward. Perhaps a bit too excited. But the fundamental thesis that the predominance of equity financing in tech is an aberration and will likely come to an end, seems rather plausible.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#164

IIRC there is at least one Silicon Valley example of this already: Zappos pre Amazon acquisition, debt from Wells Fargo. It was forced upon Zappos b/c VC fundraising dried up, not a deliberate choice, but ended up working out well b/c its GMV was both growing and becoming predictable.

I believe this article is focused on a different type of debt - "recurring revenue securitization" (focused on companies w/ a SaSS business model).

This type of financial instrument is different from a traditional venture / bank debt instrument in a couple ways:

1. it can be more favorable to startups by making payments a % of revenue instead of a fixed amount (ala ISA's)

2. the lender can earn higher interest by "securitizing" (e.g. pooling together) multiple loans and selling them. this allows the lender to move some debt off the balance sheet and in turn deploy the cash for higher yield

3. over time, the lender could provide more favorable terms by creating more accurate risk models by ingesting data from sources like Stripe and Shopify across companies and then building proprietary data sets to manage default risk. I believe Clearbanc does something similar today.

One potential downside of this model is the interest the company receiving the load would have to pay as stated here - [http://www.adventurista.com/2009/01/true-cost-of-venture-deb...

Would love to see this model work though.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree completely, but it's worth pointing out that a big reason for this is that Cambridge and Boston have vastly fewer and worse connected VCs than the bay area. I did try to pursue VC funding for a hard-tech startup (thin film deposition for making solar panel conductive pastes), but there was really only one VC group that was relevant so there wasn't exactly a surplus of opportunity money-wise just waiting for a…

>don't mind growing slowly (or don't mind never really growing much at all). Nothing wrong with "lifestyle businesses". Are we ever gonna stop saying "lifestyle businesses" for business that don't want to grow 10% per month, and finally call them "businesses" like they are? If you want to make a difference, call them "non-startup". Most businesses don't grow 10% per month, and they're still full fledge "businesses" w…

Even the word “startup” has become pretty meaningless these days, when you see 10 year old businesses calling themselves “startups.”

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#166
post #6

Debt is dumb. The childish glee coming from this author should be ignored. 2008 is coming again soon and debt holders will suffer. Please get/keep your financial house in order. Business debt is just as dangerous as personal debt.

When you say, "Debt is dumb" are you speaking in hyperbole? There are lots of examples where debt is not dumb and is in fact the prudent thing to do. If you aren't speaking in hyperbole you are wrong and if you are I suggest that in this case you shouldn't. Your overall point appears to be that a repeat of 2008 is immanent and this point can be better made without the "Debt is dumb" first sentence.

[deleted]

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#167
post #6

Debt is dumb. The childish glee coming from this author should be ignored. 2008 is coming again soon and debt holders will suffer. Please get/keep your financial house in order. Business debt is just as dangerous as personal debt.

When you say, "Debt is dumb" are you speaking in hyperbole? There are lots of examples where debt is not dumb and is in fact the prudent thing to do. If you aren't speaking in hyperbole you are wrong and if you are I suggest that in this case you shouldn't. Your overall point appears to be that a repeat of 2008 is immanent and this point can be better made without the "Debt is dumb" first sentence.

It certainly was hyperbole. There are obvious situations where debt is not dumb. We live in a time where the vast majority of debt is not used for those obvious critical situations.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#168

> Furthermore, in the Bay Area Founder-VC scene, FK/PK tension simply isn’t perceived as a problem. Founders increasingly think of themselves as capital allocators who think in bets, and the angel investing scene has brought founders and VCs together as social peers. There’s no FK/PK tension between investors and founders. They all want the same thing, and they all hang out at the same parties. The tension has simply…

> The greatest trick VCs ever pulled was convincing founders, “you’re just like us.” I don't follow how that's a trick VC's played. Founders really are investing in companies. In one of the most extreme cases, see Adam Neumann going around talking crazy for years making all kinds of big bets that all blew up spectacularly, and after this all erupted as a scandal that tanked the company he was given a cool 1.7 billion…

When a founder becomes a VC, his interests in the company he invests in are different than the founders interests. That difference in interest should be obvious but since they portray themselves as founders first, which they were before, instead as VC, which they are now, it confuses that distinction. Agree that it was written a bit too strongly as an attack since I don’t think VCs are malicious when they do that (most at least).

If you don’t believe that, then see other comments that describe how founders in almost all other places other than Bay Area (Boston, NYC) prefer bootstrapping you VC.

Though one way I’m not convinced by the article, in my view what keeps the tension low and manageable in the Bay Area is the amount of money and small number of major firms, which makes treating founders well a key long term strategy, otherwise they’d get less deals (supply vs demand) rather than the power law distributions of this “phase” of tech firms. This long term strategy hasn’t evolved in Boston, NYC, Atlanta, etc, so VCs don’t play up their former founder roles, and the tension between VC and startup is easier to see.

Anyway, it’s not a bad thing, I would question the deal making abilities of founders who don’t see it, and just recognizing these tensions and finding win-win ways to resolve them is a woefully unrecognized part of growing a business.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#169
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2008 is coming again soon I have no idea why people __LOVE__ making these statements. 2008 was something that affected mostly the US and while it affected the rest of the world to a certain degree, overall very little changed. Before jumping on my throat, hear me out: There have been several significant financial events since then: the European debt crisis, then Portugal(which is relatively small on a global scale)…

I'm equally perplexed as to why people always seem to think a big downturn is right around the corner. Maybe there are always enough warning signs that someone with a sufficient penchant for confirmation bias will latch on to. Regardless, nobody can tell the future - there are simply too many unknowns to consider. We will certainly have more good times and bad times. As to when they come, predict all you want, but hi…

Time and date may not be predictable, but the simple math behind the modern monetary system of central banks is quite clear. Print or die. Inflation or recession. When the F.R.B. of the USA stops printing the market crashes. You can watch it happen if you are watching what they do. Since they are now wholly locked in a corner they only have the two options. Inflation or depression. Soon they will purchase stocks outright. We may not actually see a 2008 type scenario, but I'm not going to bet my house, car, and business on it. If we all saved and did not borrow, they could not print.

Re: Debt is coming to the tech industry

#170

Debt is dumb. The childish glee coming from this author should be ignored. 2008 is coming again soon and debt holders will suffer. Please get/keep your financial house in order. Business debt is just as dangerous as personal debt.

How do you propose solving problems like "buy a house" and "buy a car" without debt? The average person who needs to drive to work has no way to buy a car in cash, at least not early on. If you drop all your savings on a new car and suddenly end up with a hospital bill, that car isn't going to pay for it. I say this as someone who had enough saved to buy a car in cash: Buying it via a loan was the right choice. It bo…

Look up the word "savings". It is possible to rent a cheap apartment, buy a used car, and wait until you can afford better things. Obviously some people are going to run into financial difficulties if they have unexpected extraordinary bills. The vast majority of things in life are however, expected. Nothing is new under the sun. The overwhelming debt of the world increases costs. Additionally, debt temporarily tricks most people into thinking they have more than they actually do. I think more people would be interested in working harder for better jobs or opportunities if it wasn't so easy to get whatever you want by signing a piece of paper.
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