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Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

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Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#221

Post by Laforet »

raverbashing wrote: post #181
chvid wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand what it is that the Chinese authorities are supposedly misreporting? The mortality rate of 2% is consistent with the number of cases and deaths reported by other countries. Is it that there are a large number of undiagnosed cases? That is kind of a given and is probably also the case in other countries. The timespan between first case and until it gets reported to who and quarantines start is less…

The question I'm still not sure is: of those who were infected, how many have been discharged from the hospital already? What was their mean recovery time?

Just over 2300 have been discharged based on a 10-day absence of viral RNA in throat swabs.

There has been some discussion about changing the guidelines to discharge patients after 3 days without viral titre but I'm not sure if this has been adopted. Any comment about recovery time would have to be made after the dust settles.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#222

Post by thomasz »

hef19898 wrote: post #217
rorykoehler wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of undiagnosed cases and under reporting of deaths is a possibility.

Which, from what I read so far, should drive mortality down. Reason is that unreported cases trend towards less severe cases with an overall lower mortality rate. And nobody is disputing that kind of underreporting in any way. So I'm not sure why everybody is making such a fuss about that.

Underreporting of infections leads to a overestimated mortality rate, underreporting of deaths leads to an underestimed mortality rate.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#223

Post by PeterisP »

nabla9 wrote: post #90

If they screw up other measures, like hygiene for the sick and food delivery to 50 million people they can multiply the death rate. Modern theory of Spanish flu[1] is that the flu itself was not that deadly. Combination of influenza with bacteria in the lungs caused most of the deaths. It was the World War I with lots of wounded in the same place, bad hygiene conditions, many with scarred lungs from poison gas and ci…

Spanish flu killed very many people in regions that did not directly participate in WWI, so civilians (as opposed to recruits sent overseas) should not be affected by the war; e.g. India, Indonesia, etc.

The half a million people who died of the Spanish flu in USA did not die because lots of wounded in the same place and scarred lungs from poison gas.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#224

Post by ComodoHacker »

chvid wrote: post #173
torgian wrote: post #144

My wife is mainland Chinese, and she has been saying that it a worse than what the government is saying. Also, since Li Wenliang died, well, frankly a lot of people are pissed at the CCP. Anyway, I feel like it’ll be an epidemic ( it already is, I believe ) in China, and be much better controlled outside of China. Unfortunately my wife is also stuck in Chongqing; Taiwan is essentially closing up its borders and we do…

I don’t understand what it is that the Chinese authorities are supposedly misreporting? The mortality rate of 2% is consistent with the number of cases and deaths reported by other countries. Is it that there are a large number of undiagnosed cases? That is kind of a given and is probably also the case in other countries. The timespan between first case and until it gets reported to who and quarantines start is less…

>The mortality rate of 2%

As a reminder, don't mix this rate with case fatality (or lethality) rate, which is counted on ended cases and is about 30%. This is your real chance when you're infected.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#225

Post by nabla9 »

PeterisP wrote: post #223
nabla9 wrote: post #90

If they screw up other measures, like hygiene for the sick and food delivery to 50 million people they can multiply the death rate. Modern theory of Spanish flu[1] is that the flu itself was not that deadly. Combination of influenza with bacteria in the lungs caused most of the deaths. It was the World War I with lots of wounded in the same place, bad hygiene conditions, many with scarred lungs from poison gas and ci…

Spanish flu killed very many people in regions that did not directly participate in WWI, so civilians (as opposed to recruits sent overseas) should not be affected by the war; e.g. India, Indonesia, etc. The half a million people who died of the Spanish flu in USA did not die because lots of wounded in the same place and scarred lungs from poison gas.

In the US roughly half present of the population died. It killed roughly ~5% of the world's population.

btw. I did not say WWII was the single cause for high mortality. Hygiene, malnutrition etc. contributed. And the virus itself had higher mortality rate than usual, but not as much as previously thought.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#226

Post by hef19898 »

thomasz wrote: post #222
hef19898 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which, from what I read so far, should drive mortality down. Reason is that unreported cases trend towards less severe cases with an overall lower mortality rate. And nobody is disputing that kind of underreporting in any way. So I'm not sure why everybody is making such a fuss about that.

Underreporting of infections leads to a overestimated mortality rate, underreporting of deaths leads to an underestimed mortality rate.

If you underreporting deaths without underreporting infections doesn't work. You can underreport deaths, sure. But you have to consider the underreporting of cases as well. And all these cases have bias towards being less severe. Also, the underreporting of infections is kind of systematic. So in order to increase mortality by underreporting both, infections and deaths, the mortality rate of unreported cases has to be higher than the rate for reported cases. Which is unlikely, severe cases have a tendency to show up at hospitals.

So unless you believe authorities are getting with hiding hundreds of deaths at hospitals being under international scrutiny, while simultaneously hiding the fact that dead people pile up at their homes, this theory seems kind of unlikely. Especially since international numbers outside of mainland China are more or less in line.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#227

Post by hef19898 »

bulutsuzku wrote: post #155
samstave wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png What are your thoughts on this?

Is that "easy" to hide such big number of deaths in China?

Sure, you know because of China. And the internet says so. I always shocked when someone, especially on this forum, brings up stuff like that.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#228

Post by PeterisP »

nabla9 wrote: post #225
PeterisP wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spanish flu killed very many people in regions that did not directly participate in WWI, so civilians (as opposed to recruits sent overseas) should not be affected by the war; e.g. India, Indonesia, etc. The half a million people who died of the Spanish flu in USA did not die because lots of wounded in the same place and scarred lungs from poison gas.

In the US roughly half present of the population died. It killed roughly ~5% of the world's population. btw. I did not say WWII was the single cause for high mortality. Hygiene, malnutrition etc. contributed. And the virus itself had higher mortality rate than usual, but not as much as previously thought.

Do you have a source for that 8-22% of population died, which seems an extremely large, unrealistic number?

E.g. https://www.quora.com/Which-country-was-most-affected-by-the... cites some resource which shows an estimate of 2.3 M people dead in Europe, and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634693/ shows an estimate of 2.6 M excess deaths in Europe i.e. 1.1% of population.

The vast majority of the worldwide deaths from Spanish flu were in Asia; the region with most deaths was India.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#229

Post by rorykoehler »

hef19898 wrote: post #226
thomasz wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Underreporting of infections leads to a overestimated mortality rate, underreporting of deaths leads to an underestimed mortality rate.

If you underreporting deaths without underreporting infections doesn't work. You can underreport deaths, sure. But you have to consider the underreporting of cases as well. And all these cases have bias towards being less severe. Also, the underreporting of infections is kind of systematic. So in order to increase mortality by underreporting both, infections and deaths, the mortality rate of unreported cases has to b…

I dunno if you’ve seen any of the undercover videos from the hospitals? It’s entirely possible there are hundreds of deaths that haven’t been recorded. Many deaths are being recorded with viral pneumonia as death as they don’t have enough test kits to verify and are therefore not attributed to this coronavirus.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#230

Post by hef19898 »

rorykoehler wrote: post #229
hef19898 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you underreporting deaths without underreporting infections doesn't work. You can underreport deaths, sure. But you have to consider the underreporting of cases as well. And all these cases have bias towards being less severe. Also, the underreporting of infections is kind of systematic. So in order to increase mortality by underreporting both, infections and deaths, the mortality rate of unreported cases has to b…

I dunno if you’ve seen any of the undercover videos from the hospitals? It’s entirely possible there are hundreds of deaths that haven’t been recorded. Many deaths are being recorded with viral pneumonia as death as they don’t have enough test kits to verify and are therefore not attributed to this coronavirus.

Undercover videos. Played to much Plague Inc. lately? As long as numbers from the epicenter in Wuhan don't deviate to much from international WHO numbers I will not go by "it is possible that...". I don't argue the situation in Wuhan is horrible. But taking some individual cases from area hit worst and build some BS theories out of that, going against every expert opinion out there, is just conspiracy theory shit. And spreading panic.
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