Here's the historical total graph, not the year to year change graph.[1] Unclear if this is constant dollars. That's from the World Semiconductor Trade Association, which collects statistics and resells them, expensively. The Bloomberg article is what you get from the free tier, press releases.
Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
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Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#92There is interesting news about Xilinx specifically: they are no longer allowed to sell the Huawei, so their stock declined recently. The consequence is that Huawei needs to switch to home-grown ASICs, and I'm sure the pressure is on for a high-end home-grown FPGA vendor.
So this is just one company, but I'm wondering if tariffs in general are a part of this decline.
https://epsnews.com/2019/10/28/xilinx-cuts-huawei-from-futur...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/business/economy/trump-us...
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
As someone who watches the financial news, it almost feels more like baseball statistics, where they say something like, "this batter on sunny days in April has an advantage against left-handed pitchers." While it may be true, it feels more like p-hacking than some kind of useful fact. I felt like the financial industry was really doing this early in 2019, after the huge drop in stocks, everyone was like the S&P is u…
According to EMH, all information is subsumed into the price. As such, how could the huge 2018 Christmas drop affect future returns?
How could there be a huge temporary drop, with your view of the EMH? The fundamentals can't have changed that much. If they did change that much, and the market absorbed new information, then the price wouldn't have come back. The only way you can retain a belief that the price is "correct" is by imagining there are invisible error bars somewhat bigger than the size of the fluctuation.
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
It might have something to do with social media making it more obvious that journalists and news agencies are usually partisan and agenda-focused rather than neutral and content-focused. Political journalism (domestic US and international) has completely gone to shit. Tech journalism has slowly fizzled away into just clickbait and financial news has slowly drifted towards interpreting Ouija boards and magic 8-balls.
I think it's nostalgia for an age that never existed, multiplied by a US-based demagogue's campaign against facts. Journalism has always been deeply flawed and massively biased, yet still useful. The people of the past knew that. You're not smarter than your great grandparents on that front. Tech wasn't some cure-all that opened your eyes but not theirs. People knew these things.
In my opinion journalism has been destroyed by tech - the tech that drives journalists to optimize for selling online ads. The problem with what's written is not fundamentally political, nor is it the same old same old; it's the fallout of paperclip maximization.
Writing things that leave a false impression, use any and all techniques to inflame, and so on, are becoming the norm due to a runaway optimization process which is massively reshaping society in my lifetime.
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#95Agreed, this news doesn't square with market performance. For instance, FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors portfolio) mutual fund is up 43% over one year, doubling the performance of the S&P500. Top-10 holdings (68%) include Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell, ON, NXP, FLex, Commscope, so it's a fairly broad measure. For this cross-section to be performing so strongly, others must be circling the d…
In saying that there cannot be a turndown because stocks are rallying, you are not comparing apples to apples. Companies can circle the drain while their stock rallies. Companies can do good business while their stock gets crushed. First, people are buying equities in general because interest rates are being held low artificially by the Fed, which has been pressured by the President to do this. Second, few traders an…
"Doesn't this seem weird?"
I have no idea if INTC is a good stock to buy, but it sounds like you have an idea of who they are that is based on a lot of ordinary people and their stereotypes about the company from the media and from using computers for years.
A company can be reshaped much faster internally than their public image, but I don't think you have to be an insider, a genius, or a professional to figure it out. You just have to read their reports to the SEC. Not for the decimal places, but for one or two significant figures and the text.
What I'm saying is, I don't know if x86 CPUs have the significance you think or not. If people did buy the stock based on "cloud demand", then I would say "huh, I wonder if that's justified, what proportion of their business is it and how is it growing?" Rather than assuming they are who I think they are. IBM, GE, many other companies have strong images of the companies they used to be with the public, so I imagine many people own stock without any idea of what they really have.
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#96Uhhhh I think it is because everyone is waiting for the next gen consoles of Xbox and PlayStation. There are even rumors for a Nintendo switch "x"
And they all need chips.. And electric vehicles are also slowly catching up. They need chips too.
Its not a bubble burst, just a generation change (and wait)
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to EMH, all information is subsumed into the price. As such, how could the huge 2018 Christmas drop affect future returns?
Maybe EMH isn't correct?
Weak forms of EMH are almost certainty correct. If they were not, you could beat passive investing with relatively little work, and that is impossible.
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#98If only the US had the infrastructure to do everything from mining the materials all the way up the chain to building custom PC’s, wouldn’t that be cool? If we could do everything “in house” so to speak?
Seems like it should be a priority for homeland security really...
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to EMH, all information is subsumed into the price. As such, how could the huge 2018 Christmas drop affect future returns?
Maybe EMH isn't correct?
Statistically it's not incorrect.
While you should be skeptical of strong forms of the EMH, all evidence points to weak forms of the EMH being true.
A corrolary that is good to keep in mind is "markets are more efficient than you're smart" -- prevents you from starting doomed financial enterprises
Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know we're being trained to hate journalists these days, but that quoted sentence is just stating a fact: the biggest drop since dotcom bubble... and the article reads very reasonable. I don't see anything controversial in there - seems to balance the negatives with things like "the rate of decline abated" and "the decline in industry sales didn’t stop investors betting on a future rebound." - how is that sensation…
The article cannot be distilled to that single sentence. Framing the financial facts as a precursor to a recession by explicitly referencing the last tech bubble that burst carries with it implications that a skimmer may take away from the article if they weren't reading very critically. This is what FUD looks like in the wild. It's much more subtle and devious than the millions of Twitter bots spamming "sell $TSLA".
You don’t like Mike?