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Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

bloomberg.com

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Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#31

Post by thrustmaster »

mrspeaker wrote: post #29
ksec wrote: post #28

>Revenue fell 12% to $412 billion in 2019, ....That’s the biggest drop since 2001, when industry sales slumped 32% as the dot-com bubble burst. In 2001 post Dot Com Bubble, that 32% drop was real . The 12% drop in 2019 was only due to NAND and RAM went from Record High and back to "normal". Samsung was the most profitable company in 2018 simply because NAND and DRAM. Almost everyone in Semiconductor industry is makin…

I know we're being trained to hate journalists these days, but that quoted sentence is just stating a fact: the biggest drop since dotcom bubble... and the article reads very reasonable. I don't see anything controversial in there - seems to balance the negatives with things like "the rate of decline abated" and "the decline in industry sales didn’t stop investors betting on a future rebound." - how is that sensation…

By "being trained" do you really mean that we are thinking more critically about the information fed to us?

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#32

Post by trophycase »

mrspeaker wrote: post #29
ksec wrote: post #28

>Revenue fell 12% to $412 billion in 2019, ....That’s the biggest drop since 2001, when industry sales slumped 32% as the dot-com bubble burst. In 2001 post Dot Com Bubble, that 32% drop was real . The 12% drop in 2019 was only due to NAND and RAM went from Record High and back to "normal". Samsung was the most profitable company in 2018 simply because NAND and DRAM. Almost everyone in Semiconductor industry is makin…

I know we're being trained to hate journalists these days, but that quoted sentence is just stating a fact: the biggest drop since dotcom bubble... and the article reads very reasonable. I don't see anything controversial in there - seems to balance the negatives with things like "the rate of decline abated" and "the decline in industry sales didn’t stop investors betting on a future rebound." - how is that sensation…

Well just reading the headline, I immediately thought that in terms of absolute sales numbers, they were as bad as since the dot com bubble burst...

Only to learn after that it's talking about a percentage drop?

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#34

Post by rossdavidh »

baybal2 wrote: post #12

I wrote before that semiconductor industry economists were awaiting a crash for a very long time. At least since 2016, I saw notion of a coming crash coming from very esteemed industry publications that cost few thousand bucks to access. Everybody in semi knows of the cyclical nature of the industry, and the non-stop long bull run since 2008 looked very unusual to many. Why is this so important? The reason is that fe…

Well, some parts of the industry did. Some just opted out. Every generation of lithography sees a few companies say "forget it" and step off the treadmill, either moving to a fabless model (pay others to make your stuff), or consigning themselves to legacy parts only.

This has resulted in a long term concentration of semi manufacturing among fewer and fewer companies. Even Global Foundries (the company) decided to hold off on EUV.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#35

Post by rossdavidh »

zozbot234 wrote: post #8
wyxuan wrote: post #4

Could be that Intel chip supply shortages, and decreased average sale prices (due to AMD offerings) could be the reason for this. Not as many people upgrading as inter generational gains start to level off.

I think embedded systems account for the vast majority of chip production, so any dynamics involving Intel/AMD would be very minor.

In units, perhaps, but not in $$, far from it.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#37

Post by mrspeaker »

thrustmaster wrote: post #31
mrspeaker wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know we're being trained to hate journalists these days, but that quoted sentence is just stating a fact: the biggest drop since dotcom bubble... and the article reads very reasonable. I don't see anything controversial in there - seems to balance the negatives with things like "the rate of decline abated" and "the decline in industry sales didn’t stop investors betting on a future rebound." - how is that sensation…

By "being trained" do you really mean that we are thinking more critically about the information fed to us?

We've always been trained to think critically about media (I even had classes on it in high school - one called "critical thinking"!). Seems like now it's just "hate journalists" not "think critically". If something doesn't fit your world view, just ad hominem it.

I'm hoping I'm just imagining it though (confirmation bias!), and it's really always been like this.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#39

Post by adammunich »

swiley wrote: post #36

No one can innovate when they can’t understand. No one can understand when they can’t read the data sheets for chips they don’t use. Want people to build things with your crap? Don’t fight them when they try.

This absolutely. The chip people always make custom protocols for /everything/.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#40

Post by swiley »

adammunich wrote: post #39
swiley wrote: post #36

No one can innovate when they can’t understand. No one can understand when they can’t read the data sheets for chips they don’t use. Want people to build things with your crap? Don’t fight them when they try.

This absolutely. The chip people always make custom protocols for /everything/.

Custom protocols are not really the end of the world, it’s when they make a custom protocol and then use copyright to force you to do certain things in order to use it.
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