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Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

bloomberg.com

21–30 of 106 posts

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#21
post #4

Could be that Intel chip supply shortages, and decreased average sale prices (due to AMD offerings) could be the reason for this. Not as many people upgrading as inter generational gains start to level off.

I think embedded systems account for the vast majority of chip production, so any dynamics involving Intel/AMD would be very minor.

Embedded chips are generally cheap. CPU’s sell for ~1,000x the price of most embedded chips. X00$ CPU vs X0c 32 bit microprocessors / microcontroller etc.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#22
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think embedded systems account for the vast majority of chip production, so any dynamics involving Intel/AMD would be very minor.

Embedded chips are generally cheap. CPU’s sell for ~1,000x the price of most embedded chips. X00$ CPU vs X0c 32 bit microprocessors / microcontroller etc.

10c 32-bit microcontroller from Intel/AMD? Have I been buying the wrong chips? Care to share some links?

EDIT: commenter above edited their post, mentioned $.10 MCUs from Intel/AMD

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#23

Agreed, this news doesn't square with market performance. For instance, FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors portfolio) mutual fund is up 43% over one year, doubling the performance of the S&P500. Top-10 holdings (68%) include Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell, ON, NXP, FLex, Commscope, so it's a fairly broad measure. For this cross-section to be performing so strongly, others must be circling the d…

In saying that there cannot be a turndown because stocks are rallying, you are not comparing apples to apples. Companies can circle the drain while their stock rallies. Companies can do good business while their stock gets crushed. First, people are buying equities in general because interest rates are being held low artificially by the Fed, which has been pressured by the President to do this. Second, few traders an…

Haven't made a game changing device since Steve Jobs? The Apple Watch completely dominates that product category. There is no alternative that can even compare.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#24

Agreed, this news doesn't square with market performance. For instance, FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors portfolio) mutual fund is up 43% over one year, doubling the performance of the S&P500. Top-10 holdings (68%) include Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell, ON, NXP, FLex, Commscope, so it's a fairly broad measure. For this cross-section to be performing so strongly, others must be circling the d…

In saying that there cannot be a turndown because stocks are rallying, you are not comparing apples to apples. Companies can circle the drain while their stock rallies. Companies can do good business while their stock gets crushed. First, people are buying equities in general because interest rates are being held low artificially by the Fed, which has been pressured by the President to do this. Second, few traders an…

I'm honestly extremely pleased with my iPad Pro and Airpods Pro, both are honestly impressive pieces of tech. I'm coming from an EE background, so I might not be able to really distinguish nuances in software, but hardware-wise they are impressive.

I can't agree with you on the Apple perspective, and it's my subjective opinion, I might be also biased since I have a large position on APPL. However, I can agree on the idea that the stock price can be completely disconnected from the fundamentals of the company.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#26
I used to work in the semiconductor equipment industry in the 90s and it was quite cyclical. One year the demand was great and they were hiring like crazy and the next year things were looking dismal and they had to do layoffs. This repeated many times though the overall trend was of growth. I managed to stick around for some time since I was in R&D and with a bit of luck. Things smoothed out considerably over the decades.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In saying that there cannot be a turndown because stocks are rallying, you are not comparing apples to apples. Companies can circle the drain while their stock rallies. Companies can do good business while their stock gets crushed. First, people are buying equities in general because interest rates are being held low artificially by the Fed, which has been pressured by the President to do this. Second, few traders an…

Haven't made a game changing device since Steve Jobs? The Apple Watch completely dominates that product category. There is no alternative that can even compare.

The entirety of "wearable, home, and accessories" amounted to 10.9% of revenue for the past quarter, which included Christmas, and 9.4% for all of fiscal 2019. In addition to the Apple Watch, that category includes Airpods, HomePod, Apple TV, Beats, iPod touch...

Just because you like the Apple Watch doesn't mean that it has changed the way the company does business. And the fact that Apple doesn't break out gross margin for this category tells us that they aren't particularly proud of that number. Gross margin on products as a whole is about 34%.

Apple wants to paint the picture that they are diversifying away from phones, which accounted for over 3/5 of their revenue this past quarter, and shifting toward services and other products.

But it's one thing to repeat a rosy narrative, and another entirely to back it up with financial statements. Apple is still a phone company, and if the Apple Watch really drove profits for them, they'd break "wearables" out to its own line item, or at least show us the gross margin for "wearable, home, and accessories."

https://s2.q4cdn.com/470004039/files/doc_financials/2020/q1/... https://s2.q4cdn.com/470004039/files/doc_financials/2019/ar/...

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#28
>Revenue fell 12% to $412 billion in 2019, ....That’s the biggest drop since 2001, when industry sales slumped 32% as the dot-com bubble burst.

In 2001 post Dot Com Bubble, that 32% drop was real. The 12% drop in 2019 was only due to NAND and RAM went from Record High and back to "normal". Samsung was the most profitable company in 2018 simply because NAND and DRAM. Almost everyone in Semiconductor industry is making fairly decent amount of profits and increase unit shipment in 2019. Look at look at the leading Foundry ( TSMC ) and Intel all making record profits and shipment.

Bloomberg is quickly becoming BuzzFeed for financial news.

Re: Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst

#29
post #28

>Revenue fell 12% to $412 billion in 2019, ....That’s the biggest drop since 2001, when industry sales slumped 32% as the dot-com bubble burst. In 2001 post Dot Com Bubble, that 32% drop was real . The 12% drop in 2019 was only due to NAND and RAM went from Record High and back to "normal". Samsung was the most profitable company in 2018 simply because NAND and DRAM. Almost everyone in Semiconductor industry is makin…

I know we're being trained to hate journalists these days, but that quoted sentence is just stating a fact: the biggest drop since dotcom bubble... and the article reads very reasonable. I don't see anything controversial in there - seems to balance the negatives with things like "the rate of decline abated" and "the decline in industry sales didn’t stop investors betting on a future rebound." - how is that sensationalist? Maybe they could have reported it as "19th best year since dot com bubble"?
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