Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#321

Post by scottlocklin » Wed, Feb 05, 2020, 7:41 PM UTC

virgilp wrote: post #320

scottlocklin wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speech to text and machine translation worked about as well 20 years ago as it does now. Dunno where you were then. IPad unlocking with your face: what amazing progress. I feel so futuristic. Obviously this great boon to humanity is equivalent to say, those delivered in the decade between 1900 and 1910 (off the top of my head; safety razor, zeppelin, radio, air conditioning, powered heavier than air flight, electroni…

> Pretty sure that "progress" was mostly people writing frameworks for video cards. Pretty sure you either don't know as much as you claim, or are knowingly claiming things that are blatantly false

Cool story bro. Enjoy your iphone face recognition; that's pretty much all you got in the last 20. Seems like the Haber–Bosch process slightly more important.

If you have an actual example of a past 20 years developed machine learning idea which has pushed the needle for normal people in the same way the Haber-Bosch process did (making an extra 6 billion lives possible); I'd love to hear about it!

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#322

Post by bawana » Wed, Feb 05, 2020, 9:37 PM UTC

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #196

bawana wrote: post #193

Prosperity without growth. Only possible if money has a half life. This slow devaluation of money over time would allow stable prices, growth and more granular control of the economy. This kind of money could be electronic and only minted by the fed as FED-COIN. The blockchain would be essential in tracking and controlling each fedcoin. An interesting solution might be for the fed to give fed coin to people as a UBI(…

The easy way to devalue money would be to print more of it.

It’s not just the printing of money but it’s proper delivery. Currently the fed uses money in repo operations. This was fine back in the day but today it’s different. Since the weaking of glass stegall banks are looking to financial tools for higher roi. Now it seems the fed’s behavior is propping up equities markets while real wages stagnate.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#323

Post by bawana » Wed, Feb 05, 2020, 9:40 PM UTC

pif wrote: post #208

bawana wrote: post #193

Prosperity without growth. Only possible if money has a half life. This slow devaluation of money over time would allow stable prices, growth and more granular control of the economy. This kind of money could be electronic and only minted by the fed as FED-COIN. The blockchain would be essential in tracking and controlling each fedcoin. An interesting solution might be for the fed to give fed coin to people as a UBI(…

> Of course once the fedcoin is spent(undergoes a transaction) it’s value would freeze. I don't get the "of course"...

The purpose of fedcoin is to increase first order spending. If it’s value continues to diminish w time then no merchant would accept it at face value.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#324

Post by mathattack » Wed, Feb 05, 2020, 9:43 PM UTC

fhood wrote: post #178

mathattack wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just an arms race. Growth funds everything, including social programs and saving the environment. Granted some growth (productivity driven) is better than others (resource driven.) For better or worse we can’t fund solutions to the world’s problems with austerity.

Also isn't growth a natural result of human progress? As science and technology move forwards they allow for more productivity per person and thus drive growth right? Or is that an overly simplistic notion?

Per capita growth is relatively recent in the long arc of history. (Last 300 years?)

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#325

Post by bawana » Wed, Feb 05, 2020, 9:44 PM UTC

acoye wrote: post #197

bawana wrote: post #193

Prosperity without growth. Only possible if money has a half life. This slow devaluation of money over time would allow stable prices, growth and more granular control of the economy. This kind of money could be electronic and only minted by the fed as FED-COIN. The blockchain would be essential in tracking and controlling each fedcoin. An interesting solution might be for the fed to give fed coin to people as a UBI(…

You would then have to try to ban bitcoin Why would an individual want to keep around an eroding by design currency? > In addition fedcoin would traceable (anti crime) You would only successfully trace the law abiding citizen IMO.

The incentive to spend it will drive the economy. The ability to prevent its use in ‘bad’ transactions will limit ‘bad’ behavior.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#326

Post by dwaltrip » Thu, Feb 06, 2020, 5:13 AM UTC

baq wrote: post #236

thegabriele wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should last until we get to strong AI or fusion energy, both i believe will have too much an impact to be again in the hands of the fews (perhaps a global war will be in order before). Then, the problem will be about literally physical space on earth.

don't forget about waste heat, we'll get cooked alive in a few hundred years of 3% yoy growth in energy produced

Yeah. To achieve 3% growth per year for several hundred years we have to expand beyond Earth. Beyond a few hundred years, it starts getting more difficult. I wonder how much waste heat Mars or other large bodies could absorb. Or what is the largest possible radiator we could build in space...

Some fun facts I calculated while thinking about this:

* 3% growth for 100 years is 20x

* 3% growth for 300 years is 7,000x

* 3% growth for 1,000 years is 7,000,000,000,000x

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#327

Post by virgilp » Thu, Feb 06, 2020, 5:37 AM UTC

scottlocklin wrote: post #321

virgilp wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pretty sure that "progress" was mostly people writing frameworks for video cards. Pretty sure you either don't know as much as you claim, or are knowingly claiming things that are blatantly false

Cool story bro. Enjoy your iphone face recognition; that's pretty much all you got in the last 20. Seems like the Haber–Bosch process slightly more important. If you have an actual example of a past 20 years developed machine learning idea which has pushed the needle for normal people in the same way the Haber-Bosch process did (making an extra 6 billion lives possible); I'd love to hear about it!

No I don't but I didn't claim that.

Whereas you did claim that speech to text and translation were about as good 20 years ago. Basically, to use your chemistry analogy... you're saying "Haber Bosch was nothing new, Cavendish produced the same kind of results hundreds of years ago!"

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#328

Post by scottlocklin » Thu, Feb 06, 2020, 6:57 AM UTC

virgilp wrote: post #327

scottlocklin wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool story bro. Enjoy your iphone face recognition; that's pretty much all you got in the last 20. Seems like the Haber–Bosch process slightly more important. If you have an actual example of a past 20 years developed machine learning idea which has pushed the needle for normal people in the same way the Haber-Bosch process did (making an extra 6 billion lives possible); I'd love to hear about it!

No I don't but I didn't claim that. Whereas you did claim that speech to text and translation were about as good 20 years ago. Basically, to use your chemistry analogy... you're saying "Haber Bosch was nothing new, Cavendish produced the same kind of results hundreds of years ago!"

Please characterize the amazing improvements the last 20 years have brought to these fields.

Your analogy is faulty: Haber Bosch was obviously something very different and new. Nothing in use today differs appreciably in accuracy or capability in speech to text or machine translation as it was 20 years ago.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#329

Post by Gibbon1 » Thu, Feb 06, 2020, 7:17 AM UTC

scottlocklin wrote: post #321

virgilp wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pretty sure that "progress" was mostly people writing frameworks for video cards. Pretty sure you either don't know as much as you claim, or are knowingly claiming things that are blatantly false

Cool story bro. Enjoy your iphone face recognition; that's pretty much all you got in the last 20. Seems like the Haber–Bosch process slightly more important. If you have an actual example of a past 20 years developed machine learning idea which has pushed the needle for normal people in the same way the Haber-Bosch process did (making an extra 6 billion lives possible); I'd love to hear about it!

I have about 50 years of solid experience. As a reference I have my grandmother who lived through most of the 20th century.

There is something hollow about the technological advances of the last 40 years.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#330

Post by virgilp » Thu, Feb 06, 2020, 7:35 AM UTC

scottlocklin wrote: post #328

virgilp wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I don't but I didn't claim that. Whereas you did claim that speech to text and translation were about as good 20 years ago. Basically, to use your chemistry analogy... you're saying "Haber Bosch was nothing new, Cavendish produced the same kind of results hundreds of years ago!"

Please characterize the amazing improvements the last 20 years have brought to these fields. Your analogy is faulty: Haber Bosch was obviously something very different and new. Nothing in use today differs appreciably in accuracy or capability in speech to text or machine translation as it was 20 years ago.

Care to tell me one single speech to text product that had at least a horrible 50% accuracy for Romanian 20 years ago? Because today I can dictate my messages to Google - that, plus the occasional correction, is faster than typing.