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Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

citylab.com

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Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#31

Post by goodcanadian »

Tarragon wrote: post #13
rilindo wrote: post #3

I find it hilarious that even in a worse scenario with the climate crisis, Chicago somehow did not get any migrants .

On the map shades of red indicate above average immigration. White is unspecified so some meaning of avaerage; not none, but average. That said I have basically the same question. Why are cities not getting above average immigration? You noticed Chicago, I noticed Buffalo and Rochester, which are the #2 and #3 largest cities in NY.

It appears that the colours have more to do with migration compared to historic trends:

Many may end up moving to the suburbs in the Midwest, where the model shows a larger-than-average influx of migrants compared to historic trends.

So, it is really showing places that have not historically had a lot of people moving in.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#32

Post by mehrdadn »

nfg wrote: post #29
tomatotomato37 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mate, you're trying to contradict NOAA government data with someone's blog.

No, I’m not. The NOAA site does not posit that the underlying trend is linear over the period - it simply displays a linear fit on the graphs. See here for more details https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/04/16/recent-sea-level-cha...

> The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval.

I hope you'll forgive the reader for interpreting this as them positing that the trend is linear.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#33

Post by FooHentai »

ash wrote: post #12

> In the worst-case scenario, in which sea levels rise by six feet by 2100, ... Where does six feet come from? It seems very suspicious. It contradicts NOAA Sea Level Trends data of tide gauge measurements, going back to 1930 and sometimes earlier. According to the map, in almost all places in US the projected sea level trend is no more than 1-1.5 feet by 2100: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html…

There's a major research initiative taking place right now into Thwaites Glacier, as unexpectedly fast melting is occurring. It's thought this is due to warm saltwater penetration underneath the glacier but other factors are being considered.

The issue with Thwaites Glacier is it has a tapered edge that generally resists thawing, but that widens out to a huge contact surface area once erosion by salt water progresses.

This glacier alone will cause a global sea level rise of three feet.

https://thwaitesglacier.org/

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#34

Post by Ididntdothis »

klipt wrote: post #22
scrumbledober wrote: post #6

I find it hard to imagine 200k people leaving San Mateo County. most of the county is above 6ft elevation, and there's just so much money I would think dikes could be built to keep the flats dry. At the worst I would expect more housing to be built in the hills.

Optimistic of you to expect the Bay Area to build more housing anywhere. Look at the people displaced by fires in the North Bay who now can't afford to live anywhere nearby.

I think the OP meant more expensive housing in the hills. Not affordable or dense.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#35

Post by nfg »

mehrdadn wrote: post #32
nfg wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I’m not. The NOAA site does not posit that the underlying trend is linear over the period - it simply displays a linear fit on the graphs. See here for more details https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/04/16/recent-sea-level-cha...

> The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval. I hope you'll forgive the reader for interpreting this as them positing that the trend is linear.

They’re forgiven - but if you’re saying NOAA are saying the trend is linear and will continue to be you’re wrong. All the site is saying is it displays the “average” trend over the period as a straight line. It’s a comment on how the data is presented, not on the underlying dynamics.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#36

Post by josinalvo »

lxcfan wrote: post #28
IanDrake wrote: post #15

In the free market of ideas, no one actually believes this will happen. Just look at coastal real estate. Buyers and lenders would have to be colossal fools to pay such premiums to be waterfront. Even Obama just plunked down 12M on a waterfront mansion on the low lying island of MV.

Real estate prices are priced by mostly by current demand, not future oncoming disasters. Much waterfront property is _already_ vulnerable (and expensive to insure) today, regardless of whether you believe in consensus climate science, due to storms and flooding in current climatic conditions. That house by the ocean is going to destroyed at some point, the only question is when and how.

I have seen ample consensus amonsgt reputable scientists that the earth is getting warmer, and this fact is due to human activity (e.g https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-clima...)

I have not yet, however, seen any such research on consensus for the effects of climate change. Is there a large, documented consensus on any estimate of sea level raise?

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#37

Post by FooHentai »

vkou wrote: post #30

Sea level rise will not be the problem. It is going to happen on multi-generational timescales. Food insecurity, resource conflicts, extreme weather events, and a global migrant crisis (caused by the first two issues) will be. Unlike sea level rise, all it takes is one bad year to spark these.

Here in NZ, we already see issues where storms and 'king tides' cause significantly worse outcomes when they coincide. As those king tides rise and penetrate further inland, these increased weather events are going to be much worse at the coast.

Also, Miami and Venice are on borrowed time.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#38

Post by slg »

This seems to only be factoring in oceans. Won't the sea level rising have a huge impact on the rivers and floodplains in the middle of the country that this predicts will see a big influx of people? There is plenty of high elevation coastal land that I would expect to be safer than land on the banks of the Mississippi River.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#39

Post by IanDrake »

lxcfan wrote: post #28
IanDrake wrote: post #15

In the free market of ideas, no one actually believes this will happen. Just look at coastal real estate. Buyers and lenders would have to be colossal fools to pay such premiums to be waterfront. Even Obama just plunked down 12M on a waterfront mansion on the low lying island of MV.

Real estate prices are priced by mostly by current demand, not future oncoming disasters. Much waterfront property is _already_ vulnerable (and expensive to insure) today, regardless of whether you believe in consensus climate science, due to storms and flooding in current climatic conditions. That house by the ocean is going to destroyed at some point, the only question is when and how.

Well, I don't believe in "consensus" [insert field] science because that's an oxymoron.

If you still believed what was once the consensus, you would believe in some crazy stuff. Science is skeptism of the consensus, not the other way around.

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