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January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

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Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#71

Post by 1propionyl »

ramblerman wrote: post #69
1propionyl wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no actual evidence of an infinite universe. If anything the most likely situation is finite but comtinuosly expanding. > The fact life started once, makes it likely it has done so before us and will keep doing so. When I say time doesn't matter, I mean it could take billions of eons, and in the context of the universe that doesn't matter. This is still entirely wrong, on the basis of basic thermodynamic prin…

> There is no actual evidence of an infinite universe. The drake equation and fermi account for that, using something like "The universe has 10 million, million, million suns". Most of these ideas are probabilistic based on sizes that are just immense beyond comprehension. But I still find them more grounded than the pre-Copernican hubris that we are somehow central to all this. > And also: low probability in finite…

A vanishingly small probability on a finite sample still implies nothing beyond a vanishingly small probability over an infinite population.

To analogize: the vanishingly unlikely probability of landing a dart precisely in the center of the bullseye on a finitely sized dartboard implies nothing more than the same for an infinitely large dartboard.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely (in particular the mathematical concept of "almost never")

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#72

Post by imtringued »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #26
throwaway5752 wrote: post #5

I've been wondering why TSLA has been trading the way it has. A normal short squeeze doesn't adequately explain it. The volume today alone is more than 2x the last reported shares short. We all know something very, very bad is going on with the climate.

What does the current TESLA share prices have to do with the environment situation? It's not like TESLA has some magic pixie dust that can save the world tomorrow. Environmental impact from current ICE cars is fairly small compared to the pollution caused by mass manufacturing with no recycling, heavy industry, coal burning, shipping, etc. People buying more Teslas are a drop in the ocean when it comes to saving the…

>Environmental impact from current ICE cars is fairly small compared to the pollution caused by mass manufacturing with no recycling, heavy industry, coal burning, shipping, etc.

That's only true in countries that did absolutely nothing. The reality is that when you stop burning coal then unchanged emission sources like cars grow in relative terms and become more important.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#73

Post by titzer »

crispinb wrote: post #16
Najtmare wrote: post #2

There is unfortunately no stopping this as there is no or very little political will.

It's worse than that. There is very determined political will, across much of the globe, to stoke global heating further for short-term benefit. In my country (Australia) we had a federal election last year. The climate issues were very clearly laid out, and most citizens here accept the science, and have some understanding of the severity of the issue. Yet they voted very decisively against any further action to red…

> We're toast - this must be clear to everyone at this stage.

Yeah, unfortunately you are more right than you know. Like, right all the way to the bottom of the human soul. Climate change is both too fast and too slow for us to deal with effectively. In the past, humankind was never united in a global economy powered by fossil fuels and fed by financial markets driven by AI. It could never grow at a very large exponent. Now, fueled by massive population growth and even more massive economic growth, we've entered into a very steep exponent indeed. Running on theories generated by thousands of economic PhDs and underwritten by national monetary policies, the machine is finally eating the world. Literally. Capital is flowing everywhere for economic development, from vast palm oil plantations across southeast Asia, to Lithium mines in South America, to cattle farms in Brazil, to vacation homes in every picturesque spot on the planet, we're chopping it all down. And that's just the sheer physical digestion of nature. We're pumping out our waste products at record rates, and thirsty for more, we equate energy consumption with quality of life.

And worst of all, we will not stop nor even let our foot off the gas. We're locked in the patterns of international struggle for dominance even as we are locked in interpersonal struggles for sexual competition. He who makes the most money, touts the biggest consumer markets, the greatest exports or GDP or most powerful weapons...that person is crowned king of a smouldering planet.

We cannot right this ship. We are just apes, ffs. We can't evolve past our basal instincts and our antibiotics and satellites are no witness to the betterment of the human soul. We reached the apex of better angels of our nature and greed and corruption and the brutal mathematics of a game theoretic dilemma where every last human stands more to gain from defecting than cooperating.

We're gonna smash this motherfucker against the wall as hard as she will go. And the greatest irony of it all is there written in the bibles that evangelicals clutch to their chests as they gnash their teeth for more prosperity as god promised. And that was the simple wise truth, that cuts to the core of all that is today's sin: the love of money is the root of all evil.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#74

Post by scarejunba »

1propionyl wrote: post #58
titzer wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You honestly don't understand how naive you are. I don't hang around hackernews to get insulted. It's not what we do around here.

I don't hang around HN to have every other commenter confirm my existing opinions either. Being told by someone that they think you're wrong isn't an insult. If you buy the reassuring yet nonsensical idea that "the humans are fucked, the planet will be fine", you can be adequately classified as cherry-picking a minimally discomfiting worldview, against all evidence. That's not an insult.

There’s a lot of very low brow discussion going on here so I understand why you’re frustrated. HN does tone police, though, so if you want to participate probably best to play along.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#75

Post by ramblerman »

1propionyl wrote: post #71
ramblerman wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no actual evidence of an infinite universe. The drake equation and fermi account for that, using something like "The universe has 10 million, million, million suns". Most of these ideas are probabilistic based on sizes that are just immense beyond comprehension. But I still find them more grounded than the pre-Copernican hubris that we are somehow central to all this. > And also: low probability in finite…

A vanishingly small probability on a finite sample still implies nothing beyond a vanishingly small probability over an infinite population. To analogize: the vanishingly unlikely probability of landing a dart precisely in the center of the bullseye on a finitely sized dartboard implies nothing more than the same for an infinitely large dartboard. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely (in particular t…

> See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely (in particular the mathematical concept of "almost never")

You're confused here, did you read the mathematical definition of your own article?

It has nothing to do with what you think, it starts with the presumption of P(E) = 1 or P(E) = 0 for almost never.

That's not what we are talking about with small probabilities.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#76

Post by tialaramex »

1propionyl wrote: post #35
tialaramex wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stuff at the bottom of the ocean in the pitch black doesn't even need a star, it's running on some primitive chemistry and the internal heat of the planet, which is in turn driven by radioactive decay. It isn't going anywhere regardless.

It's running on the organic silt that filters and falls down to it. Where do you think that comes from? It's chemosynthesis fueled by a continuous stream of organic silt from above and volcanic vents, not magical planetary heat.

Are you putting volcanic vents at the bottom of the ocean? No. They're there because the core is hot, which it is because of radioactive decay as I explained.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#77

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

imtringued wrote: post #72
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does the current TESLA share prices have to do with the environment situation? It's not like TESLA has some magic pixie dust that can save the world tomorrow. Environmental impact from current ICE cars is fairly small compared to the pollution caused by mass manufacturing with no recycling, heavy industry, coal burning, shipping, etc. People buying more Teslas are a drop in the ocean when it comes to saving the…

>Environmental impact from current ICE cars is fairly small compared to the pollution caused by mass manufacturing with no recycling, heavy industry, coal burning, shipping, etc. That's only true in countries that did absolutely nothing. The reality is that when you stop burning coal then unchanged emission sources like cars grow in relative terms and become more important.

Yes, but how many people can afford Teslas in order to make a difference? Even in Europe, only the wealthy currently own a Tesla and those are still secondary cars to other ICEs they own. 90% of drivers are still driving 5-10 year old VW Golf like cars.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#78

Post by _yhul »

I don't normally shill subreddits -- and advise everyone to use an ad blocker while on that website -- but for those who find this news alarming and/or shrug it off as media hysteria, I highly suggest popping over to /r/collapse.

The immediate reaction (as an ego defense mechanism) is to dismiss what you will read as unproductive fear mongering. However, it is a far worse fate to be surprised by the reality of the situation (both environmental and social) when these processes hit their limit and begin affecting the neoliberal institutions that govern our world. The best way to protect yourself and your family is to stay informed, no matter how dire the truth may be.

The time for gradual change was decades ago; the only thing that will save us now (and when I say save, I mean allow modern civilization to continue) is radical action.

Re: January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

#80

Post by thulecitizen »

1propionyl wrote: post #6
throwaway5752 wrote: post #5

I've been wondering why TSLA has been trading the way it has. A normal short squeeze doesn't adequately explain it. The volume today alone is more than 2x the last reported shares short. We all know something very, very bad is going on with the climate.

All of us reading this right now are going to die just barely seeing the true extent of the outcomes. And we'll likely all die reasonably content knowing it's not our problem. We're among the last generations that can expect to ride the current peak in human success before the hard bounds kick in and things either become much more difficult or more likely just completely collapse. We all love to rest easy on the fall…

Honestly, your comment and prediction terrifies me. Do you have kids? What do you tell them? If you believe what you write, what still gets you up in the morning? Do you by any chance have Savant syndrome/autism/aspergers (I ask this question objectively. I do not mean to make a negative value judgement about you)?

You write below that you work in mathematical biochemistry. What research are your conclusions based on; which authors, measurements etc.?

> All of us reading this right now are going to die just barely seeing the true extent of the outcomes.

Do you feel scared of this collapse you are predicting? Are you distraught by humanity's destruction of our home, because you would you like to see Earth and humanity's beauty continue?

I guess the overarching theme/question for me is: if all this is true, where, and in what, do you find meaning?

Edit: to be clear, I am asking for your personal experiences and strategies. I am not looking for any advice.

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