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Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

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Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#291

Post by pjkundert »

Yes — iff your monetary base isn’t brought into being by payment of interest.

If interest must be payed in order for each unit of currency to exist, then growth is required. If not, then equilibrium between stock/flow of money and available goods/services/wealth for sale can be maintained.

If currency is brought into being by attachment of wealth (as is done in typical users based Fiat via Liens), then issuance/withdrawal of units of currency is accomplished across the entire base, to ensure absolute value stability vs. a reference basket of arbitrary commodities (or whatever)

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#292

Post by BlueTemplar »

nnq wrote: post #289
BlueTemplar wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ur dumb :p No, seriously, the "digital economy" is not new these days - have you seen any positive impact on resource consumption / pollution ? It only got worse... Warfare is about control of real resources - some people might be willing, but countries in general won't settle for fake ones !

Ofc you'll say that "it only got worse" overall bc other things got worse... The digital-virtual economy needs to grow at least 10x, and percentually to at least 95% of the actual economy (physical goods need to be comoditized, and some maybe distribute equally in a pseudo-socialistic way, outside of the economical system - the fight should be for virtual resources). You're not going to see any "things getting better…

I concur, you'll either have the power working to make your computer/VR/network run - or not. And it's the people that have the control over that power delivery that are going to have the real power (as they always did). Who is going to restructure / rewire / reeducate Vladimir Putin (or the like), hmm ?

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#293

Post by logicchains »

dwiel wrote: post #186
logicchains wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Wouldn't GDP actually decrease if the same number of widgets are made, but now for cheaper and so through competition have less "value"? Cheaper doesn't mean less "value". If we have inflation, prices go up but value doesn't increase, and if deflation decreases prices, that doesn't mean a decrease in value. GDP calculations try to account for this, to capture the fact that e.g. a $500 phone today contains a lot more…

Thanks for answering my honest questions. I didn't realize GDP accounts for perceived value. I had assumed it was restricted to the economic value strictly defined by the dollar. Thanks.

No worries! And sorry to see you were downvoted for asking an honest question, for the record I didn't downvote you.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#294

Post by logicchains »

Bjartr wrote: post #201
logicchains wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is roughly that the remaining resources (that purchasers save by paying half as much, and you save due to being more efficient) would be used to produce something else that previously didn't exist, so the total amount of "stuff"/"product" produced would be greater. Now, you might wonder if X was saved, but then X was spent on something else, doesn't GDP remain the same? No, because GDP is supposed to capture…

Aha, thanks for the explanation, it's just what I was looking for. I thought GDP was more blunt than that.

No problem, happy to explain. Sorry to see you downvoted for asking a question; for the record I didn't downvote you.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#296

Post by cjfd »

weeksie wrote: post #290
cjfd wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your original comment talked about this zero-sum game being a very grim circumstance. It talks about 'plunder' and the like. This is in part what I was commenting about, noting that it is not necessarily a grim thing. The other thing is that your talking about 'stuff' and zero-sum games still sounds a bit off. I am wondering if you are not using the term 'zero sum economy' in one meaning while at the same time evokin…

Oh why not. Normally I don't get involved in these, but since you thought it was me replying to you all along I feel like I should at least reply :) What I said is not theoretical. We have examples of zero sum economies, in fact that's how the world was everywhere right up until the industrial revolution. I would urge you to re-read my original comment, since I address the very point you're making about cooperation i…

This sounds like a legitimate fear that one could have. I can't really say I share it, tough. Also, at some point one does have to note that economic growth cannot go on indefinitely, although it is quite clear that it still can go on for quite a while, hopefully in a way that is more environmentally sustainable than the current way things are going.

Another thing to note is that current world GDP certainly is not enough because it leaves many people quite impoverished so we certainly still have some growing to do.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#297

Post by virgilp »

scottlocklin wrote: post #286
bryanlarsen wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI: has become actually useful over the last 20 years. Of course if you only use it for adtech and arbitrage the world doesn't see much benefit. genome research: CRISPR etc. space flight: reusability is a massive game changer. The Falcon 9 once they start reliably catching the fairings is about 90% reusable. The Falcon 9 makes things like constellations of 12,000 satellites feasible. The Starship is planning on 100%…

I work in machine learning: your statement is questionable -it worked fine 20 years ago. DL is nowhere near the "breakthrough" people act like it is; the actual real world applications of it that non mentats might use appear to be the null set. And yeah, I don't count the corporate propaganda material about "autonomous cars" or whatever to be evidence to the contrary. Genome research: so far a big nothing burger. Zer…

Where by "worked fine" you mean it couldn't tell a cat from a swan. Nowadays speech to text actually works, translation is actually usable, iPad unlocks with your face etc. Did you put in any effort to remember what it looked like 20 years ago, before saying "it worked fine"?

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#298

Post by demosito666 »

magicalhippo wrote: post #26
demosito666 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how is that a problem? As long as productivity grows at same rate as workers/pensioners ratio, the portion of gdp that should go towards retired ppl remains constant.

That productivity will have to come from automation, and a robot doesn't get a salary so doesn't have to pay income tax. So that'll have to change if you plan on using the productivity growth to fund pensions, no?

Either that has to change, or taxation in general has to change. If 10% of your population can produce enough goods for everyone and yet the nation is struggling with providing pension for 40%, this means that the problems do not lie in the economic plane. It gets messy when multiple competing countries are involved though.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#299

Post by nnq »

BlueTemplar wrote: post #292
nnq wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ofc you'll say that "it only got worse" overall bc other things got worse... The digital-virtual economy needs to grow at least 10x, and percentually to at least 95% of the actual economy (physical goods need to be comoditized, and some maybe distribute equally in a pseudo-socialistic way, outside of the economical system - the fight should be for virtual resources). You're not going to see any "things getting better…

I concur, you'll either have the power working to make your computer/VR/network run - or not. And it's the people that have the control over that power delivery that are going to have the real power (as they always did). Who is going to restructure / rewire / reeducate Vladimir Putin (or the like), hmm ?

> Who is going to restructure / rewire / reeducate Vladimir Putin (or the like), hmm ?

"Control over physical resources" is just a means, not an end... If you want "more power for your nation" or whatever and the world stage has been restructured so you can better get that by playing a different game, you'll switch the game. And Russia seems to be good at both cyber-warfare and "mental games", they can get even better and win even more, good for them, whatever.

(And the future of cheap-renewables plus mini-nuclear will mean power/energy will be available to everyone... fight would be more on "fabrication and repair capability/tech for next-gen hardware" or stuff like that - here China and SE-Asia seem to be winning the game, and they overall are pretty pro-globalistic and pro-virtual... for their own f up reasons, but whatever, if it pushes things in the right direction, fine.)

Anyway, things are going fine, though slow (sometimes progress goes one casket at a time unfortunately)... let's just hope some people don't f things up because they have their own personal/national/etc. crusade to fight for and mix it up with nostalgia for the "past full of meaning" and they drag us into some messed up war. Let's try and be peaceful and keep commerce flowing, previous generations have worked too hard to get this global system going for us to f it up by, ironically, being nostalgic for some good-ol-times that never actually existed...

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#300

Post by raducu »

zemvpferreira wrote: post #177
thu2111 wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is that view is contradictory. In the absence of discovering a natural resource bounty, GDP (economic) growth comes from two sources: 1. More people working harder. 2. Better technology. If you exclude "medical advances and science" you're basically excluding (2) which means the only source of growth is (1). More people working harder. Saying the world can only get better by increasing the number of hours we…

That's a big claim you're making. Can't economic growth (AKA inflation) come about from rising asset prices such as houses? It seems to me that conflating humanity's progress and economic growth is exactly where our problems start.

How is a rise in house prices helping the nobler parts of the economy? People spend considerable more of their income on mortgages or rents, leaving a lot less for other less fixed and shorter lived assets. I'd be 1000% satisfied with a 50' house and valuation, leaving me to spend my money on travel, charity, high-tech or just work less, do stuff that really interests me; or spend a lot more on education. How is the education bubble helping the progress of humanity?

I'd be extremely happy with the education + costs of 50 years ago, or just online education -- I'm not talking about content, but delivery and costs.

It boggles my mind that people don't see it for what it is -- the feudal lords are back and they take a lot more of your production just so you stay alive.

They are not helping humanity(except for some benevolent ones) progress, they 99% help themselves.

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