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Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

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Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#191

Post by Aunche »

coldtea wrote: post #70
merpnderp wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1% growth difference over 100 years is the difference between the per capita income of the US vs Mexico. So yes, unless you arbitrarily limit the entire globe to some level of prosperity like a novel about a disutopian world ruled by an evil anti-science theocracy, people are going to look at countries growing faster than them and wonder why they have to slum it like peasants without their flying cars and vacations o…

> So yes, unless you arbitrarily limit the entire globe to some level of prosperity like a novel about a disutopian world ruled by an evil anti-science theocracy, I don't see much evil to that (limiting the "the entire globe to some level of prosperity"). Nor it has anything to do with being anti-science. You could be pro-science (pro understanding the world, physics, math, etc), and against continuous growth. Better…

It doesn't matter if you're ok with it. The problem is that everyone has to agree with you for it to work, which can't happen outside of force.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#193

Post by bawana »

Prosperity without growth. Only possible if money has a half life. This slow devaluation of money over time would allow stable prices, growth and more granular control of the economy. This kind of money could be electronic and only minted by the fed as FED-COIN. The blockchain would be essential in tracking and controlling each fedcoin. An interesting solution might be for the fed to give fed coin to people as a UBI(Universal basic income). Of course once the fedcoin is spent(undergoes a transaction) it’s value would freeze. the seller of a product would then have regular money. The current mode of the fed being limited to repo operations is blunt. Direct involvement of the fed with the public would allow more direct management of the economy. In addition fedcoin would traceable (anti crime), taxable, and controllable(it might have no value for example in trade for gambling, cigarettes alcohol or other items that are unhealthy)

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#194

Post by mech1234 »

JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #183
mech1234 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's false that none of the growth is being captured by middle income people. It is being captured to a greater extent by the very top of the income distribution and by the global poor, but income is growing across the board. Real median wages and household income in the U.S. are higher than they've ever been. This is all despite the increased international competition typified by globalization trends and detailed by…

Your second link proves that middle income people are getting virtually none of the growth; at best, scraps. The difference between "none" and "effectively none" isn't a mischaracterization on my part. I will clarify by "middle income" I meant the American middle class, and not the global median.

I think it is a mischaracterization.

Notably, the graph provided at the second link covers a time period ending in 2008, the depths of the great recession. Things are numerically a bit better than depicted there. The overall story is the same- the bottom and the top of the worldwide income distribution is where things are growing fastest, but the middle is growing slower. It is certainly growing though.

10% real median income growth since the 80's is nothing to sneeze at.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#195

Post by beefield »

chii wrote: post #132
beefield wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Denmark you can take a mortgage and "pay" negative interest rate [1]. That is, you pay less back than what you borrowed. I fully agree that most people would expect the interest rate to be positive, but their expectation is no rule. Actually I am very sure interest rates have no causal relationship with continuous growth. The one (and only?) thing where the the continuous growth requirement comes from is that most…

that denmark negative interest rate is interesting. But it still doesn't quite answer the central issue - who is "giving up" money to lend? The guardian article ( https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019aug/13/danish-bank-lau... ) only mentions that it's banks passing on negative rates from institutional lenders in money markets.

Maybe it is worthwhile to note that there is no money[1] that would not be someones loan from someone. Your moeny at the bank account? It literally only is "money" that you have lent to your bank. Cash? A bearer note from the central bank, i.e. a token that says that you are owed by the central bank.

[1] As per current typical definitions of money. If you consider gold or e.g. cryptocurrencies as money, then the statement does not hold.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#196

Post by tonyedgecombe »

bawana wrote: post #193

Prosperity without growth. Only possible if money has a half life. This slow devaluation of money over time would allow stable prices, growth and more granular control of the economy. This kind of money could be electronic and only minted by the fed as FED-COIN. The blockchain would be essential in tracking and controlling each fedcoin. An interesting solution might be for the fed to give fed coin to people as a UBI(…

The easy way to devalue money would be to print more of it.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#197

Post by acoye »

bawana wrote: post #193

Prosperity without growth. Only possible if money has a half life. This slow devaluation of money over time would allow stable prices, growth and more granular control of the economy. This kind of money could be electronic and only minted by the fed as FED-COIN. The blockchain would be essential in tracking and controlling each fedcoin. An interesting solution might be for the fed to give fed coin to people as a UBI(…

You would then have to try to ban bitcoin Why would an individual want to keep around an eroding by design currency?

> In addition fedcoin would traceable (anti crime)

You would only successfully trace the law abiding citizen IMO.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#199

Post by virgilp »

rbrtl wrote: post #162
virgilp wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you also mean AI, space flight, genome research, evolution of computing, etc? Also - I agree that growth in the first world came at the expense of the middle class - but in much of the rest of the world, it didn't. I was _massively_ poorer 20 years ago (and not just me, most of my country, really). And it's not a singular thing - AFAIK a lot of people came out of poverty in those last 20 years. In east asia & paci…

I think you know OP didn't mean those: > Except medical advances and science, I'd be all willing to trade ALL the economic "growth" I don't understand if you're making a larger point or not, but the "first world" is the focus of the discussion of whether or not growth economics is harmful. It worked fantastically well for the first world for many years, possibly even the 200 year scale that the commenter above challe…

Oh, but if we take that view - it's basically "rich and healthy is better than poor and sick". D'uh, of course I'd give up all the bad things if I could get more good things in return, who wouldn't?

I think the view that one president screwed you over is a bit myopic... It didn't happen in US, it happened all across the developed world. That shows it's a systemic thing - caused not by some policy, but by global forces. Those millions that came out of poverty did it pretty much at the expense of the western middle class (and yes, this was enabled & encouraged by the rich - who benefited from it; that much is true). It's not just a few people that got richer - many millions got richer. It's just that those millions are not in the developed world.

[edit]PS. I wonder if OP didn't add the "except" after my message... I don't remember seeing it initially (though it's entirely possible that I didn't pay close attention).

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#200

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

mech1234 wrote: post #194
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your second link proves that middle income people are getting virtually none of the growth; at best, scraps. The difference between "none" and "effectively none" isn't a mischaracterization on my part. I will clarify by "middle income" I meant the American middle class, and not the global median.

I think it is a mischaracterization. Notably, the graph provided at the second link covers a time period ending in 2008, the depths of the great recession. Things are numerically a bit better than depicted there. The overall story is the same- the bottom and the top of the worldwide income distribution is where things are growing fastest, but the middle is growing slower. It is certainly growing though. 10% real medi…

That's 10% total --over 40 years-- not 10% annualized. In 1979, the median real weekly earnings was $335. Today, it is $362. The actual calculation, 362-335/335 = 8.05%. Over 40 years, 8.05% is 0.2% annualized growth.

Let's compare to the S&P 500 index. From Jan 1979 to Dec 2019, the S&P has returned 746% (2,401% including dividend reinvestment) -- both figures adjusted for inflation (as is the FRED data). Annualized, these figures are 5.35% and 8.16%. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

For bonds, that's 262% and 3.19%, respectively. https://dqydj.com/treasury-return-calculator/

10% over 40 years is absolutely something to sneeze at. That cannot be characterized as meaningful growth.

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