Live data from Hacker News

Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

newyorker.com

161–170 of 343 posts

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#161
post #151

The one fundamental reason why growth is so important is that without growth, the economy becomes a zero sum game. In order for you to get more money you must take it from someone else since there is only a fixed amount. A low growth world is one where we plunder each others' wealth, not one were the incentives are aligned with building new industry. That's why productivity increases are so important. Without them, i…

1. If you look at the productivity gains in the U.S. over the past 50 years, the vast majority of the gains have been captured by a very small subset of the population. 2. A zero sum game in terms of the distribution of money is not the same as a similar distribution of wealth.

Why does this matter? If we expand the timeline to the last 200 years, the gains in agricultural productivity have gone to a very small subset of the population (around 2%). This is in fact the major reason you're able to write comments on the Internet rather than having to plow your field. I'd rather live in a world where we can maximize the productivity gains of the entire population and let us have more leisure than one which we jam the gears of the machines because we're jealous that any given productivity gain has a power law distribution.

Your comment about "distribution of money" and "distribution of wealth" makes no sense, but let's assume that by "money" you mean "income." By definition, looking at the distribution of anything is zero-sum. The problem is, growth has nothing to do with distribution and everything to do with production. Production is not a fixed-sum game: you can have positive-, negative- or zero-sum production at any given time. The chief question of production is how do we produce more wealth using fewer resources, or more efficient combinations of existing resources? How we should distribute that wealth, income and control over the products made is an ethical and political question (though I am strongly opposed to any scheme that seeks to deprive a person from owning the product of her labor).

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#162
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are being disingenuousby saying 200 years. Except medical advances and science, I'd be all willing to trade ALL the economic "growth" in the first world of the last 20 years if we could also revert wars, climate change and destruction of habbitat for the last 20 years. Oh, and by "growth" I mean the insane asset price inflation and concentration wealth, strengthening of the military-industrial complex, mo…

Do you also mean AI, space flight, genome research, evolution of computing, etc? Also - I agree that growth in the first world came at the expense of the middle class - but in much of the rest of the world, it didn't. I was _massively_ poorer 20 years ago (and not just me, most of my country, really). And it's not a singular thing - AFAIK a lot of people came out of poverty in those last 20 years. In east asia & paci…

I think you know OP didn't mean those:

> Except medical advances and science, I'd be all willing to trade ALL the economic "growth"

I don't understand if you're making a larger point or not, but the "first world" is the focus of the discussion of whether or not growth economics is harmful. It worked fantastically well for the first world for many years, possibly even the 200 year scale that the commenter above challenged. The issues have arisen in the last 50 years (opinion incoming) and particularly since the US, and UK embraced the Trickle Down model that Reagan pulled over the American people's eyes.

Western Civilisation spent some 600 years taking their freedoms from those who held them down -- the politically, and economically, elite. In 8 years President Reagan convinced the American people that these overlords no longer needed to be held account for taking the bulk of the wealth of the masses for themselves, on a promise that it would come back to them, and that this was a required measure to encourage growth of the economy as a whole.

This was a bald-faced lie, wealth-capture and the chasm of wealth inequality was at an all time low in the developed world circa 1970, the last 50 years have served only to restore the land- and robber-barons to their political city on a hill.

They used the oldest tools in the despots handbook to achieve this: propaganda and agents provocateurs.

Today it is easier than ever for the political class to deploy these weapons against their citizens (whom, by the way, should be their peers in a democracy), and to obfuscate the use of these tools from those worst affected.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#163
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An example would be to remove the $50b per year water subsidies for the beef industry, and make consumers pay for the approximately 4000 gallons of water required to produce a pound of meat in the grocery store. Isn't that a fancy way of saying "eating meat should be a privilege for the wealthy"? The point of mass production isn't just that it's produced in masses, it's also about being affordable by the masses. Al…

> Isn't that a fancy way of saying "eating meat should be a privilege for the wealthy"? Kind of, it's a problem of externalized costs beef is only really cheap because the environmental toll of feeding and housing them isn't felt by the purchaser. If the same food and water required to make your steak would be used to feed people directly there would be much less food insecurity in the world for example. Meat is deci…

> Also consider that by being on the internet presumably with some higher education the majority of hackernews readers are already in the to 25-50% of global wealth.

I don't mind the idea of not eating meat, I eat meat maybe three times a year and I wouldn't mind not doing that, it's more of a habit of family members to have it on Christmas, not something I care for.

I'm kind of allergic to this "we must save the planet, and by we I mean the poor" stuff though. It often comes in the form of "we must save the landscape, we can't have too much dense housing, it doesn't look natural", which typically comes from people who can afford luxurious mansions in the country-side. I get that they don't want other people to live there because it wouldn't be as nice if it was crowded, but I don't like that being turned into "I just want to save the environment". It's right next to "mass tourism is terrible" from people who can pay the premium for individual tourism and just don't want to share their destination with those people.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#164

I talk about the effects of limiting GDP-style growth on our lifestyle with my wife. We burn a lot of carbon and use a lot of resources traveling, but on the other hand in our day to day life we tend to buy food in bulk at health food stores, try very hard to avoid using plastic, share one fuel efficient car, etc. Our take is that, for the sake of our grandchildren's generation and generations beyond that, that we wo…

> An example would be to remove the $50b per year water subsidies for the beef industry Do you have a source for that? Every one I have been able to find indicates that total meat and dairy subsidies are less than that, let alone just water subsidies for the beef industry.

I doubt it's a remotely accurate figure. However, cattle consume a LOT of water. 20~ gallons per head per day is a fairly accurate figure and the US has something like 95 million cows.

So with farming and animal husbandry water rights are a big thing. Often water rights will go to farmers/ranchers long before they go to people.

So you've got cows, with a conservative estimate, using 500 billion gallons of water a year in the U.S. alone just for drinking. Obviously most of that is coming from natural sources but that has financial impacts on the treated water that ends up pumped to your house/business via pipes. How big is that financial impact? shrugs

I highly doubt it's close to 50 billion USD a year though.

They definitely do get comparatively obscene amounts of financial benefit though. Water rights, forage disaster, livestock compensation, indemnity payments, feed assistance, general relief, then you have to think about what sort of subsidies the growers get that then gets passed through as a benefit in the price of the feed going to the livestock...

Man I love meat, I love love love meat, but I switched to primarily whole food plant based last year. WFPB is far more sustainable as far as water and land, arguably much healthier, requires far less fossil fuel input, and noticeably cheaper (my weekly grocery bill as halved).

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#165
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You probably live a comfortable life and is mostly satisfied with what you have so you see no need for more growth. Now imagine someone had the means to implement this same idea 200 years ago. We probably wouldn't have water and sewage treatment, fast transportation, modern medicine, electric light and all the appliances that come with it, internet, etc. I find it disingenuous to dismiss all these as trinkets. This w…

I think you are being disingenuousby saying 200 years. Except medical advances and science, I'd be all willing to trade ALL the economic "growth" in the first world of the last 20 years if we could also revert wars, climate change and destruction of habbitat for the last 20 years. Oh, and by "growth" I mean the insane asset price inflation and concentration wealth, strengthening of the military-industrial complex, mo…

It is not disingenuous to think long term because of how growth compounds over time. Imagine average growth is 2% a year and we cap it to 1%. In 20 years the difference would be 48% vs 22% total growth, which may not sound bad. But in 200 years, it would be 5150% vs 632%, and it would only get larger.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#166

I talk about the effects of limiting GDP-style growth on our lifestyle with my wife. We burn a lot of carbon and use a lot of resources traveling, but on the other hand in our day to day life we tend to buy food in bulk at health food stores, try very hard to avoid using plastic, share one fuel efficient car, etc. Our take is that, for the sake of our grandchildren's generation and generations beyond that, that we wo…

> An example would be to remove the $50b per year water subsidies for the beef industry, and make consumers pay for the approximately 4000 gallons of water required to produce a pound of meat in the grocery store. Isn't that a fancy way of saying "eating meat should be a privilege for the wealthy"? The point of mass production isn't just that it's produced in masses, it's also about being affordable by the masses. Al…

>Isn't that a fancy way of saying "eating meat should be a privilege for the wealthy"?

It absolutely should.

https://newrepublic.com/article/120915/american-west-drought...

- 90% of of Nevada's cropland is used for hay, 90% of Montana's, 60% of Utah's

- 50% of California's water usage goes to livestock feed

Etc etc. This is unsustainable, period. This is causing groundwater depletion (and has for decades) that will take centuries (or longer) of rainfall to replenish. You get water contamination, you get monoculture crop for vast swaths of land that negatively impact wild pollinators and soil health, etc etc.

I love meat, but it absolutely HAS to be a luxury. My fiance's parents and siblings mostly own livestock. For personal use for a few dozen of them they have a couple hundred acres which does not sustain their animals and requires considerable amounts of purchased feed for a dozenish cows, a couple dozen sheep/rams, a few dozen chickens etc in the heart of Missiouri.

Depending on where you are in the world you need 2-25 acres of arable land per cow during the warm seasons to feed themselves. The average grass fed cow will yield about 530lbs of meat at slaughter after 2 years of life.

That's 4-50 acres tied up for 2 years to produce 530lbs of meat, less than 3/4 of meat per day.

If you switch them to grain you need about 25 pounds per day of dry feed. In the corn belt you can get about 200 bushels per acre. A bushel is about 56 pounds. That gives you 1.13 years for a cow with optimal yield per acre of corn, outside of the corn belt you'll only get about 100 bushels per acre yielding you about 0.61 of a cow's annual requirement per acre.

Never mind that cow's digestive systems aren't really designed for corn.

There's something like 1.5 billion cows in the world... 20ish gallons of water a day, 25 pounds of dry feed a day...

Meat is a luxury man. A luxury.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#167

The one fundamental reason why growth is so important is that without growth, the economy becomes a zero sum game. In order for you to get more money you must take it from someone else since there is only a fixed amount. A low growth world is one where we plunder each others' wealth, not one were the incentives are aligned with building new industry. That's why productivity increases are so important. Without them, i…

In fact, in the pre-modern world there were large spans of space and time where growth was so slow as to be invisible within a person's lifetime and people did think of wealth as being zero-sum. To a feudal lord, land = wealth and being wealthier was about having more land. Someone already had all the land, so the only way of getting more was taking someone else's.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#168
post #28

Growth is an international arms race. I think the biggest problem is that economic growth gives countries a (military) advantage. If you opt out of growth-based economic system, your neighbors will have more army or resources or manpower. They will eventually invade you or dominate you economically. This is similar to the situation Africans were during Industrial Revolution. Europeans needed a lot of workers for fact…

It's worth investigating how much the economic growth was a military proxy (and a human trait emerging upward).

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#169
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you also mean AI, space flight, genome research, evolution of computing, etc? Also - I agree that growth in the first world came at the expense of the middle class - but in much of the rest of the world, it didn't. I was _massively_ poorer 20 years ago (and not just me, most of my country, really). And it's not a singular thing - AFAIK a lot of people came out of poverty in those last 20 years. In east asia & paci…

I think you know OP didn't mean those: > Except medical advances and science, I'd be all willing to trade ALL the economic "growth" I don't understand if you're making a larger point or not, but the "first world" is the focus of the discussion of whether or not growth economics is harmful. It worked fantastically well for the first world for many years, possibly even the 200 year scale that the commenter above challe…

Problem is that view is contradictory.

In the absence of discovering a natural resource bounty, GDP (economic) growth comes from two sources:

1. More people working harder.

2. Better technology.

If you exclude "medical advances and science" you're basically excluding (2) which means the only source of growth is (1). More people working harder. Saying the world can only get better by increasing the number of hours we work is dystopian and doesn't make sense to wish for.

Ultimately, all progress comes through technology.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Human ingenuity is key That's a bet that many of us are not willing to take. Sure, you can imagine that a future technology we haven't thought of yet will save growth, but I think it's very important to think about scenarios when that won't happen. Are we really wanting to bet humanity's future on just "technology"? If you read Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed[1], you'll realize that socities that…

> That's a bet that many of us are not willing to take. So don't take it. But don't complain when you end up losing out to people, institutions, and countries that haven't adopted this defeatist attitude. As for Collapse: Diamond is wrong on many of his specifics (e.g. Easter Islander depopulation) but even in his own framework, collapse comes from a lack of ingenuity, a sclerotic loss of the ability for a society to…

I'm not saying "let's just despair and do nothing", of course we should focus resources on innovation. In fact that's what we're doing right now. But let's not focus _all_ of our resources on a hope.

Don't you think it's safe to assume that technologies might not save us and that we should work on some alternatives, just in case the first scenario doesn't work?

> collapse comes from a lack of ingenuity, a sclerotic loss of the ability for a society to solve problems.

So you're saying that the _only_ way of preventing collapse is by technological advance? And that we should not try to make sociaty sustainable without growth, or at least to do some reasearch on how that might be possible?

Post reply on HN