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Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

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Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#21

Post by hannob »

Reason077 wrote: post #18

Perhaps a better way to phrase the question would be: Can we have economic growth, improving prosperity and quality-of-life, while reducing our environmental impact?

That's actually the question most people have been asking for the past decades. The answer is: The world has tried and failed and there's some serious questions about the plausibility of that endeavour.

The question whether growth==good or maybe just.. it's more complicated than that and we may be able to get more quality of life without growth is far more interesting.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#22

Post by oblio »

atemerev wrote: post #16
mytailorisrich wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can have sustainability and prosperity. It's a triangle: prosperity, sustainability, population. Choose 2 (and obviously if you don't choose sustainability the sh*t is going to hit the fan at some point anyway). The key issue is the global population. (Edit: We're discussing life on this planet. Colonising space obviously means that human population may continue to grow, but not on Earth and not using Earth' resou…

So, which country would you want to depopulate first?

I vote that we start with the country that uses the most resources per capita, and that pollutes the most per capita :-P

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#24

Post by Reason077 »

samdung wrote: post #7

As long as you have short term growth targets (quarterly financial results) you cannot get big businesses to reckon with the environment. The only possible way is for people to stop buying unwanted stuff just because it is cheap.

> "you cannot get big businesses to reckon with the environment."

Well, that's what governments are for. It is the government's role to create regulations which promote the broader, long-term interests of the population and environment in situations where markets fail to do so.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#25

Post by aww_dang »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #11
julbaxter wrote: post #8

Can we have prosperity without growth? No. Can we have sustainability with growth? No. Then we can not have prosperity and sustainability. Can we afford not having sustainability? No. Then we can not afford prosperity.

We can have sustainability and prosperity. It's a triangle: prosperity, sustainability, population. Choose 2 (and obviously if you don't choose sustainability the sh*t is going to hit the fan at some point anyway). The key issue is the global population. (Edit: We're discussing life on this planet. Colonising space obviously means that human population may continue to grow, but not on Earth and not using Earth' resou…

Malthus was proven wrong by productivity gains. England did not starve due to a rising population, but went on to become an industrialized nation. Increased population allows for greater specialization.

This only holds true as long as free markets are allowed to operate somewhat unimpeded. Typically the Malthusian position is one that advocates excessive government intervention. When taken to an extreme this can make the Malthusian catastrophe self-fulfilling as the market can longer allocate resources efficiently.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#26

Post by magicalhippo »

demosito666 wrote: post #14
digitalengineer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. you can not. There are just too many pensioners: "Between now and 2050,the number of older persons will rise from about 600 million to almost two billion. In less than 50 years from now, for the first time in history, the world will contain more people over 60 than under 15" https://www.cassandracapital.net/post/the-unprecedented-demo...

And how is that a problem? As long as productivity grows at same rate as workers/pensioners ratio, the portion of gdp that should go towards retired ppl remains constant.

That productivity will have to come from automation, and a robot doesn't get a salary so doesn't have to pay income tax. So that'll have to change if you plan on using the productivity growth to fund pensions, no?

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#27

Post by virmundi »

atemerev wrote: post #16
mytailorisrich wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can have sustainability and prosperity. It's a triangle: prosperity, sustainability, population. Choose 2 (and obviously if you don't choose sustainability the sh*t is going to hit the fan at some point anyway). The key issue is the global population. (Edit: We're discussing life on this planet. Colonising space obviously means that human population may continue to grow, but not on Earth and not using Earth' resou…

So, which country would you want to depopulate first?

Europe, Japan and the native population of the US have elected themselves. Africa probably won’t have the population boom since education is spreading, which tends to slow reproduction rates. Problem is solved in about 30 years with the death of the boomers and the non-replacement rates.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#28

Post by b0rsuk »

Growth is an international arms race.

I think the biggest problem is that economic growth gives countries a (military) advantage. If you opt out of growth-based economic system, your neighbors will have more army or resources or manpower. They will eventually invade you or dominate you economically.

This is similar to the situation Africans were during Industrial Revolution. Europeans needed a lot of workers for factories and plantations, so they would visit a coastal African country and buy slaves. You could refuse to sell them slaves, but then they would sail to your neighbors and sell them firearms. Then those neighbors would have substantial military advantage and could invade you. There were only two options: be the ones that receive the rifles, or form a large alliance which refuses to sell slaves to Europeans. Forming large alliances is HARD. Africans weren't stupid - they tried to negate the technical advantage, for example the king of Kongo wanted to pay well for ship technology. (source: "Black Mother" by Basil Davidson)

Back to prosperity without growth. To resist pressure from neighboring states that practice economic growth, you would need to continuously improve efficiency and that's hard. Produce terminator-like killer machines and drones to make up for less numerous army. Have super advanced science, strategy or diplomacy. The only country I know that comes close is Switzerland, and it has the advantage of mountainous terrain away from major transport routes. Ideally the advantages you have should be ones that can't be taken away from you or "stolen" via espionage.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#29

Post by paulintrognon »

chii wrote: post #17
mytailorisrich wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can have sustainability and prosperity. It's a triangle: prosperity, sustainability, population. Choose 2 (and obviously if you don't choose sustainability the sh*t is going to hit the fan at some point anyway). The key issue is the global population. (Edit: We're discussing life on this planet. Colonising space obviously means that human population may continue to grow, but not on Earth and not using Earth' resou…

why can humans not expand interplanetarily? Then, inter-stellarly, then finally, inter-galactically?

Because that's still science fiction. We have enough ressources to sustain current population/economic system for a few decades, a century at most (i'm thinking gas, rare earth, phosphore, etc). It's been 50 years since we got to the moon and we're still stuck on low-orbit earth. Even getting to Mars is still very very hard. Do you think we'll be technologically ready to colonize an earth-like planet by the end of this century?

While we can't rule it out fure sure, it would be crazy to bet on that possibility.

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