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Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

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Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#341

Post by the8472 »

Diederich wrote: post #334
heavyset_go wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a vacuous statement. That's just your opinion, while my comment is a statement of reality as it stands. > Evidence would be a deployed self-driving fleet. This is also just your opinion. Evidence could also be a self-driving vehicle that doesn't drive under the beds of trucks, run people over or is statistically safer than human drivers. > Now if you want theoretical considerations instead of evidence, then…

> Evidence could also be a self-driving vehicle that doesn't drive under the beds of trucks, run people over or is statistically safer than human drivers. The relevant part is the last: "statistically safer than human drivers." Every driving system that has existed or will exist will make errors due to extremely novel situations. Given the energies involved, such errors will lead to crashes, some of which will be hor…

> statistically safer, by a fair margin, than human drivers.

Considering other utility unlocked by autonomous cars (e.g. less stress, life-hours freed up, helping the disabled) they could even be marginally less safe than human drivers and still provide a net benefit.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#342

Post by TaylorAlexander »

ipunchghosts wrote: post #122

The amount of jitter in the estimates makes me nervous, especially when the model thinks something is present in one frame and not there in the next.

Agreed. It also said it was running at 13fps. Not stoked about a vehicle going 70mph updating at 13fps.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#343

Post by the8472 »

larksimian wrote: post #318
cortesoft wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile, Teslas run into the backs of car carriers because they only recognise the car it's carrying and not the truck bed extending behind it And someone rear ended me the other day because they didn't notice cars were stopping. Yes, self-driving cars make mistakes, but humans make all sorts of mistakes, too. The question is, do self driving cars have more accidents per mile (or more damage per mile/injuries per…

And the answer is yes, they are less safe than human driven cars( https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t... ) "activating auto steer increased crash rate by 50%" Tesla safety stats are ok when compared to the average car on the road. But that's because they are expensive, high quality cars driven by middle aged people. It's the safest car demographic on the road. When comparing auto drive teslas…

Tesla is only one of several players in the game. Waymo is generally considered to be better and safer at the moment.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#344

Post by filoleg »

tw04 wrote: post #234
krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

Show me a self-driving car functioning in the middle of a blizzard and we can start talking. Southern California and the weather it experiences is a poor representation of what is required for self-driving to replace humans.

Doesnt have to be sunny South California. There are tons of Teslas in PNW states where it rains all the time, and it still works great. I regularly commute during rain, and have encountered zero issues so far. I know it is anecdata, but at least it is supported by other numbers, such as high numbers of Teslas on the roads here.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#345

Post by rad_gruchalski »

powowowow wrote: post #265
rager wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking the same thing. I would think they thought to write in some traction detection, however I've never seen a demonstration of the like. They need to test cars in the heart of MN during the winter; when you can't see the lines on the road, and sometimes the car in front of you.

That is a situation where humans routinely crash. The machines are better drivers, in that they admit defeat and stop.

or simply slow down. I dread to have to sit in the car that decided to just stop, risking freezing. You don’t know if you sit there for an hour, a day, a week?

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#346

Post by unapologetic »

krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

Big difference between being "against" self-driving cars and simply not buying into the hype.

I don't buy into the hype, and I certainly don't buy what Tesla is promising.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#347

Post by platz »

grey-area wrote: post #328
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

> There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans Yes, there is. You can debate the exact figures/circumstances, but the numbers are good, and improving all the time. Humans are just not very good at guiding tons of metal around at high speeds, which isn't very surprising when you think about it. One accident for every 4.34 million miles is already pretty good (compared to 500k miles for huma…

You are right and wrong and the same time.

By quoting an average, assuming those numbers hold when scaled up, you are compressing the actual distribution into a single number. Overall that high-level number may be correct.

But at the same time, the kinds of people that get into accidents will be a different distribution.

How you drive factors a lot into how likely you are into getting in an accident, even allowing for the other drivers.

If the distribution becomes essentially random then you might actually have a higher chance of getting into an accident than before, if you were a very careful driver.

(Obviously those that benefit the most are the bad drivers since they'll no longer be bad)

Just remember that whenever you summarize a distribution into a single number like an average, you loose a lot of information in the process.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#348

Post by shaklee3 »

grey-area wrote: post #328
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

> There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans Yes, there is. You can debate the exact figures/circumstances, but the numbers are good, and improving all the time. Humans are just not very good at guiding tons of metal around at high speeds, which isn't very surprising when you think about it. One accident for every 4.34 million miles is already pretty good (compared to 500k miles for huma…

It doesn't invalidate the numbers if they were in ideal conditions, but it certainly means you cannot compare them to regular human drivers. That 500k number is the average from all kinds of different driving conditions. You would have to find a set of data where the humans also only drove in ideal conditions and see if the rate is any worse. I agree with the original poster and that there's not enough evidence to say that machines will be better than humans with the current technology being used.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#349

Post by [deleted] »

blattimwind wrote: post #296
scarejunba wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is some evidence. For instance, Tesla drivers report the car stopping before they can perceive an accident about to take place. An example is the first ten seconds of this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APnN2mClkmk These vehicles have a superior sensor system to us. Our processing is better but sometimes their superior sensors are better.

That's not particularly impressive. The system reacted pretty much the same way a human driver (watching the brake lights and general attitude of the cars ahead) would react in this cirumstance.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#350

Post by mam2 »

pier25 wrote: post #337
TaylorAlexander wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla uses only cameras (some color and some black and white I believe) along with a radar system and perhaps sonar? But Tesla is controversial in their approach - essentially all other self driving systems use depth sensors. Tesla makes the argument that you can actually calculate depth from moving cameras, which is true. The technique is called structure from motion and it is well understood. However a lidar is a m…

> So Tesla has the advantage of collecting a huge data set of real world data now Do Tesla owners know about this? Is this an opt-in feature?

Lol
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