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Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

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Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#231

Post by donkeyd »

the8472 wrote: post #178
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

> There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans That's a vacuous statement. Evidence would be a deployed self-driving fleet. At which point it would be mission accomplished and we wouldn't be discussing this. Now if you want theoretical considerations instead of evidence, then consider the lower reaction times of machines.

> then consider the lower reaction times of machines

Meanwhile, Teslas run into the backs of car carriers because they only recognise the car it's carrying and not the truck bed extending behind it. It might react faster, but it needs to identify the danger first and up until now, it's much worse at that in many situations.

Yes, you're right, once it's safer, it's safer. That makes your statements just as vacuous as theirs.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#232

Post by heavyset_go »

the8472 wrote: post #178
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

> There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans That's a vacuous statement. Evidence would be a deployed self-driving fleet. At which point it would be mission accomplished and we wouldn't be discussing this. Now if you want theoretical considerations instead of evidence, then consider the lower reaction times of machines.

> That's a vacuous statement.

That's just your opinion, while my comment is a statement of reality as it stands.

> Evidence would be a deployed self-driving fleet.

This is also just your opinion. Evidence could also be a self-driving vehicle that doesn't drive under the beds of trucks, run people over or is statistically safer than human drivers.

> Now if you want theoretical considerations instead of evidence, then consider the lower reaction times of machines.

Consider the high error rate of machine learning when it comes to novel situations that driving exposes drivers to. Human beings can understand situations they are in and adapt based on that understanding, whereas this generation of ML does not.

Computers have the theoretical potential for a lot of things. The internet had the theoretical potential for mass informational enlightenment, democracy and resource allocation in the face of dwindling scarcity of resources.

Instead, the computers and the internet have become tools of mass manipulation, weapons for totalitarian regimes, and despite an abundance of food, people still go hungry.

I understand that a lot of people are sold on hype, and believe promises that were made, however the results are just not there.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#233

Post by mrmonkeyman »

pcurve wrote: post #193
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

"All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide." That may be very true, but are most of us fully present in the act of driving ? Where the ML is deficient we can make up for it by making the infrastructure more robust.

Speed of computation cannot overcome lack of cognition.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#234

Post by tw04 »

krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

Show me a self-driving car functioning in the middle of a blizzard and we can start talking.

Southern California and the weather it experiences is a poor representation of what is required for self-driving to replace humans.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#235

Post by jodrellblank »

phkahler wrote: post #135
Shivetya wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

while an interesting video I really want to see the entire front arc stitched together. How is it judging it is safe to go through the stop sign? Situations like that fascinate me the most. One issue not discussed enough is all this push for automation really needs road marking guidelines pushed down from the Federal level. While the feds can hold domain over the interstate system or roads it can be maddening the dif…

>> One issue not discussed enough is all this push for automation really needs road marking guidelines pushed down from the Federal level. That would be a mistake. You don't take a safety critical system and rely on a nationwide beauracracy getting all the details right to make it safe, or even effective. We've had the discussion here before, and the only way for full level 5 autonomy is a general AI capable of most…

Isn't that what we do with building codes, fire safety codes, airline industry regulation, electrical safety regulation, gas regulation, food hygiene, product labelling, site safety symbols, and many more?

Collectively decide what needs to be done for something to be considered safe enough, then regulate that it must be done that way for it to be allowed. Maybe this could be "self-driving car approved roads" and self-driving cars must check their navigation systems and only travel down approved roads. Drivers then get to lobby their local or state councils to make more roads follow the self-driving car markings and signage, and when they have, cars become permitted to drive down them next time they update.

Until people realize that it will be an endless stream of "we just need to fix these corner cases" or put more constraints on the physical world because the cars aren't smart enough.

That is one way of considering trains and trams, and they're good enough to be useful with extreme constraints on what they can do.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#237

Post by donkeyd »

pcurve wrote: post #193
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

"All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide." That may be very true, but are most of us fully present in the act of driving ? Where the ML is deficient we can make up for it by making the infrastructure more robust.

> making the infrastructure more robust

Can't make human behaviour inside that infrastructure more robust though. So we'd need to completely split human and autonomous traffic. That'll be about as big a challenge as creating the autonomous cars in the first place.

My guess is at least 15 years before we'll see any large scale adoption of autonomous vehicles. And that's for countries like the Netherlands which are already pretty well organised. Countries with chaotic driving styles and roads like Italy will take longer and the third world might take decades longer because of the lack of rules in many of those countries.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#238

Post by scarejunba »

heavyset_go wrote: post #160
krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

There is some evidence. For instance, Tesla drivers report the car stopping before they can perceive an accident about to take place. An example is the first ten seconds of this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APnN2mClkmk

These vehicles have a superior sensor system to us. Our processing is better but sometimes their superior sensors are better.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#239

Post by NobodyNada »

occamrazor wrote: post #182
daniel_iversen wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t there already a mounting amount of statistics of accidents of self driving cars vs manual ones and the difference is night and day that the self driving ones are statistically safer?

Self driving cars killed one pedestrian in 10 million miles driven, about an order of magnitude worse than humans

But that’s a sample size of one, so we can’t really draw any meaningful conclusions from that data. (Also the safety driver was watching Netflix on her phone; it could be argued that the vehicle was not production-ready and not expected or intended to be able to handle every situation.)

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#240

Post by Ntrails »

scarejunba wrote: post #238
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

There is some evidence. For instance, Tesla drivers report the car stopping before they can perceive an accident about to take place. An example is the first ten seconds of this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APnN2mClkmk These vehicles have a superior sensor system to us. Our processing is better but sometimes their superior sensors are better.

Sure, and as soon as I can sit facing the other way and not be responsible for the cars fuck ups that's fine. Until then semi autonomy can fuck right off. I'd rather trust myself 100% of the time than a machine 99% of the time.
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