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James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

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Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#261
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

Linus Pauling received two Nobel Prizes. Later, he advocated for "mega-vitamin therapies," which wasn't backed up by science.

Elon Musk could be exceptionally brilliant and crazy at the same time. (Probably not as brilliant as Pauling, though.)

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

> how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to move to a planet that is essentially uninhabitable? Fort Bridger, Wyoming has a population of 345[0]. California has a population of nearly 40 million[1]. Should those crazy people of the 19th century never have bothered with Fort Bridger? Inhabiting a habitable planet outside our solar system is so far beyond our current capabilities th…

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Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

>Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to move to a planet that is essentially uninhabitable? Where even in the best scenarios we would live really harsh lives after a long and dangerous voyage. The point of colonizing Mars (for Musk) is not to move there when Earth becomes inhabitable. It's too remove the single point of failure for the species that…

> With a self-sustainable (even if harsh) Mars colony

How realistic is this self-sustainability? Where any moderately complex spare parts can be produced on Mars, instead of having to be supplied from Earth with yet another ultra-expensive supplies mission?

Imho we are talking hundreds of years here. Until then our burning home base Earth remains a single point of failure. Better douse the fire first.

Until then putting some people on Mars as a symbolic gesture to show humanity is still capable of grand achievements may be fine, esp. if that gives us hope we can tackle our other more immediate problems (though for me that is not needed).

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#264
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats the value of Mars. It forces whatever is built there to be sufficient and is largely a one way trip. A moon base will probably function more like a research station on Antarctica. New supplies will be shipped, people will transition back home every 4-12 months. For health reasons you'll want to avoid people spending too much time on Lunar gravity. A similar issue exists on Mars, but causes the opposite result.…

There is nothing stopping you from building self-sufficient and secluded colonies on Earth as well. Svalbard has a no-visa-needed policy and is barely populated. If you can convince the Norwegian government to sell you land, you can build your colony there and will mostly be kept alone (compared to a colony in say Sahara which lies on a heavily populated continent).

The problem is that it is too to leave Svalbard. If something goes wrong, your Svalbard colony can call for help. On Mars if something goes wrong, help is at least 6 months away. On Svalbard if you aren't having fun anymore you can leave, on Mars it is likely a oneway trip unless you are a billionaire.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats the value of Mars. It forces whatever is built there to be sufficient and is largely a one way trip. A moon base will probably function more like a research station on Antarctica. New supplies will be shipped, people will transition back home every 4-12 months. For health reasons you'll want to avoid people spending too much time on Lunar gravity. A similar issue exists on Mars, but causes the opposite result.…

> Thats the value of Mars. It forces whatever is built there to be sufficient and is largely a one way trip. The immediate parallel that came to my mind were the first European settlers that came to America. For instance, Jamestown where they started the winter with 500 people and made it to spring with 60 [1] It may be an "advantage" but it's also very high risk. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starving_Time

Yeah, first few Mars colonies will likely be TPKs.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#266
post #254
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A substantial portion of Elon Musk's company's funding comes from "tax money" (Goverment contracts, EV credits, tax breaks, subsidies). How much? Sounds more like a talking point than an actual honest critique. I mean, oil companies get massive subsidies and we spend trillions to go to war to keep the petroleum industry ascendant.

Oil is the lifeblood of the US economy. In times of economic recession, we often blame the government and get rid of them. We've clearly signaled with our voting patterns what we want and government has delivered on it - a reliable supply of oil to power the economy. But that's not enough we also demand "Big Oil" act as our sin-eater; thus our souls are pure because Shell takes on the stain of our sins. https://en.wi…

> Oil is the lifeblood of the US economy.

Currently. But given the externalities, it could be a net negative.

> We've clearly signaled with our voting patterns what we want

I think recent elections and upcoming elections will signal differently. Smart money will make bets accordingly.

In other news, TSLA is +50% in last week, and +100% in the last month. Something happening here.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#267
post #225

He’s stuck in the past. In the timeframe of Mars colonization, “human” consciousness (really the successor to it) will be hosted in different body plans that will thrive on Mars.

Interesting idea... can you elaborate or list some references where one can read more about this?

Not super aware of literature on this. Maybe transhumanism and future-looking AI stuff (not current AI challenges). It’s clear if you think about it. I don’t think the people who are aware of this are talking about it much yet, because it would freak most people out a bit too much. Note that Elon Musk does not talk so much lately about spreading humans through the solar system... he talks about spreading consciousness.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#268
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

The advantage of space colonisation is that you can control everything - the microbes, the infrastructure, the laws, the people.

There are no environmental regulations, no taxes, no diversity policies, and with appropriate screening, no human, plant or animal diseases.

To put it simply: imagine a space colony of a thousand of the best and brightest men and women Earth had to offer, where gonorrhea, AIDS, chlamydia, the common cold just didn't exist? Where one could work without the tax burden of paying for a huge welfare state?

This is something that Earth cannot offer. Even in the most remote desert you will have to deal with the local tribes and the United Nations. Space colonies could developer free of the burden of socialism.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#269
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

This is the way people in cults talk.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point of colonizing Mars (for Musk) is not to move there when Earth becomes inhabitable. It's too remove the single point of failure for the species that Earth currently represents. Fair point. However it's sad to think that as a species we're so petty and narrow-minded that we need a backup in case we fuck this planet up ourselves. Maybe I'm too harsh, but I almost feel that we don't even deserve a backup if w…

The backup is not necessarily against a man-made catastrophe. A stray asteroid in the right place at the wrong time is perfectly capable of fucking up Earth without our assistance.

Surviving even a Cretaceous–Tertiary sized extinction event on Earth would be a hell of a lot easier than trying to terraform and permanently colonize a planet like Mars that is missing its magnetic shield.
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