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Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

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Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#231
post #192
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what precedes the problem you mention (and one of the main points in the article) is the problem of generating reduced uncertainty in the model. Maybe there’s a chance for more granular data to enhance that?

The problem isn’t the granularity of observations, it’s the granularity of the grid with which the simulations are run. As I understand it (by analogy with my own field of macroeconomics) the current limit is the fact that the grid is coarser than the average size of a cloud, and that therefore cloud cover needs to be approximated. That is the real source of uncertainty.

> The problem isn’t the granularity of observations

Perhaps you should tell the people who are running the "big observational campaign happening right now" that they can pack up and go home.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is textbook middlebrow contrarianism. using some quote from some recognizable name to dismiss the incredible work of dozens of top of their field professionals doing their life's work. its a perfect example of the way hacker news "types" do climate change denial. via endless "well-actuallys" until you're lost and stuck in a level of analysis-paralysis that borders on an anxiety disorder. the problem with solving…

This comment is inappropriate and should be removed. It violates the #1 fundamental rule of this forum - to argue the argument , not the arguer .

The post is in fact about the argument, rightfully pointing out it is essentially high class spam.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#233

> Those now attempting to figure out the mystery of the hot climate models think one factor might have caused the recent unusual results: clouds. It turns out simulated clouds often cause headaches for climate modelers. The impact of cloud cover in these models has been incorrect, and has such a large impact. Doesn't this strike anyone as a major problem? We're burning about 100 billion gallons of aviation fuel per y…

So, 500 million metric tons sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But there's the fact that it's getting dumped into an already big system: the atmosphere at large. Let's check it out it percentage terms. According to wikipedia, the mean mass of water vapor in the air is 1.27 * 10^16 kg. To get the units correct, that aviation contribution is 5 * 10^11 kg. Dividing the latter by the former, we find that the annual commercia…

FL300 is very cold and very dry, and bears almost none of the "atmospheric water". Your estimation of impact is not correct. This is not a linear system.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, weather is climate. But that isn't what OP said.

Climate is long term patterns. Weather is what is happening at a specific time. If the distinction wasn't made then someone could argue that a cold winter day disproves warming.

that is not relevant to the wager I proposed, which still stands.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#235
post #29

If you are like me, you hate reading articles like this. You know there is a problem but you feel like you can't do anything about it. You recycle, you turn off lights, you have a programmable thermostat but you know it's a drop in the ocean. I finally decided to do something about it last fall. I researched and have committed to purchasing green power. Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 from Bullfrog Power (a Ca…

> Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 Is there a typo somewhere? I run multiple computers at home 24/7 and I'm using ~2500 kWh a year. Also, 850 kWh for $22 sounds crazy cheap, I pay ~100€ per 200kWh (including the rented meter, but more importantly, taxes).

Sorry I should have said, "every month I purchase offsets equating to 850kWh for $22". This is in addition to my regular electricity bill (I pay about $0.07/kWh). Bullfrog Power isn't my supplier, they are a company investing in green energy projects.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#236
post #211
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn’t the granularity of observations, it’s the granularity of the grid with which the simulations are run. As I understand it (by analogy with my own field of macroeconomics) the current limit is the fact that the grid is coarser than the average size of a cloud, and that therefore cloud cover needs to be approximated. That is the real source of uncertainty.

Interesting. So is the grid limited due to computational complexity, like the mesh in finite element analysis?

Precisely. But don’t take my word for it. If you’re into a light introduction, consider watching Sabine Hossenfelder’s interview of Tim Palmer (a theoretical physicist’s interview of a leading climatologist is a thing of beauty in its own right).

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose my immediate question is - is there any way for an non-professional with a pair of eyes and a smartphone to contribute in a crowd-sourcy way?

Seems like a recipe for bad data and undiscoverable flaws.

Not if done correctly. See this as an excellent example: https://www.zooniverse.org/projects/zooniverse/snapshot-sere...

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, what other experimental data is there? If these incidents are the only data points, then that's the natural extrapolation, even though it is only weakly supported.

As someone else pointed out, the New Deal, which gave us massive infrastructure projects that we still rely on and helped set the stage for postwar prosperity.

The impact of the New Deal on post-war prosperity is debatable, but I want to focus on two different points. First, the New Deal mobilization is small in comparison to what has been proposed in the context of the "Green New Deal." From 1930 to 1940, total government spending (at all levels), jumped from 12% to 18%. That's 6% of GDP, or about $1.17 trillion annually. It's unclear what folks who use the phrase "total war mobilization" mean. If you're talking about the Green New Deal's proposal of hitting 0 carbon emissions within a decade, that's not close to enough: https://www.factcheck.org/2019/03/how-much-will-the-green-ne...

> Pollin, however, strongly disagrees with the resolution’s aim of getting to net zero with just a decade of investment. “I think it’s completely unrealistic and it’s not worth costing out,” he said of the Green New Deal.

$1 trillion is the price tag of a much more conservative approach that puts a much longer timeline on carbon reduction:

> Edward Barbier, an economist at Colorado State University, agrees that a strict timeline isn’t realistic. He advocates jump-starting the transition by investing about 5 percent of GDP over five or so years. GDP was $20.5 trillion in 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, so that’s a little over $1 trillion a year. “That would push us on a path to clean energy, and a path that permanently lowers carbon emissions,” he told us.

The second point I want to make is that we have much less headroom to do a "New Deal"-style project than we did in 1930. We are actually already far in excess of New Deal-era government involvement in the economy. (See my link above.) Today, government spending is at around 35% of GDP. We are in fact closer to the "total war mobilization" of World War II (where spending peaked at 45%) than to the New Deal era 18%.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#239
post #135

I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models. I believe there are too many dynamic things happening in the world for anyone to be able to predict accurately say the next 100 years (solar, earthquakes, volcanoes etc). One way to make me a believer though is an experiment: if I were to give you a 100 year stretch of history and you were able to accurately predict with the models what exactl…

The best thing we can do to see if the models work is to look how they performed compared to reality in the decades since we have climate models. Turns out: They worked really, really well. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/201...

Right, but again this goes back to OP's point that there is a survivorship bias in the models which tends the community to accept the models that both "predict" the past as well as reinforce the narrative that temperatures will continue to increase.

Having said that, the reality remains that, even without the models, the CO2 levels are increasing, they are well correlated to temperature increases, and they are expected to increase further - so VERY PROBABLY - climate change is a very serious massive problem. This is all true even without the models.

When it comes to the reliability of models, the devil is in the details. ...but, of course, no one should assume that a model turning out to be wrong or biased suddenly negates all the other evidence we have. Models are just one piece of a probability decision tree we need to navigate.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may also be that people like the idea of 'improvements in urban planning' when they are intangible, but if those changes involved limiting their land use or bulldozing their inefficient homes and neighborhoods they balk; they may also not like moving those planning decisions from their local communities to some bureaucracy outside of their direct engagement.

Don't need to bulldoze much of anything to do something though. The inefficiency of buildings is a tiny part of the problem, especially in temperate climates; more mixed use zoning, and the relaxing of single family dwelling zoning, will have a dramatic impact on excess travel. Transport accounts for basically a third of U.S. energy use, though it has been hardly growing over the last few years, which is a good start…

I think we agree. I meant inefficiency in building density not energy use. I was thinking about row houses in San Francisco and brownstones in New York City. Old short and inefficient buildings could be torn down and replaced with tall, dense, efficient structures; but people who own row houses, or rent apartments with high rents, or like the way their neighborhood is now don't seem to want this kind of transformation.
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